Written By: Richard Salvatori
The 2012-2013 season has been in the books for over a month now, and we are finally beginning to see the future take shape around the country. Personnel changes in the form of transfers and recruiting will play a big role as always, and it’s never too early to start considering who will benefit most.
1. Illinois Fighting Illini
John Groce moved from Ohio to Illinois to take over the Fighting Illini, and he did a solid job year one. Second round exit in the NCAA tournament at the hands of Miami has to be viewed as at least a mildly successful season for a first year coach, but losing three key seniors will sting for Illinois moving forward.
In early May, Darius Paul, the younger brother of Brandon, announced his intentions to transfer to Champaign and follow in big bro’s footsteps. Paul was the MAC Freshman of the year last season at Western Michigan, and he brings size and athleticism on the interior with him.
Paul joins Illinois State forward John Ekey and Seton Hall guard Aaron Crosby as the latest installments in the future of Illinois basketball. Ekey will be available immediately as he is pursuing a graduate degree not offered at Illinois State. He made 18 starts for the Redbirds a season ago and provides size.
Crosby leaves Seton Hall after an abysmal season in which he served as one of the lone bright spots for the Pirates. He’s an aggressive and quick guard who can hit from the outside but most importantly, provides ball-handling and leadership for a group that lost a ton at the guard position in the wake of graduation.
Crosby will have to sit out next year according to NCAA guidelines, but he will be eligible to practice with a team that will feature 5 incoming freshman within a class that is ranked number 17th nationally by ESPN. The Illini also boast two additional transfers from a season ago who will be eligible to play this year.
While Illinois will still certainly be young in 2013-2014, the plethora of talent heading to Champaign is apparent. Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State have to be considered conference heavyweights at this point, but the conference as a whole should be down next season, which could allow for the Illini to make another run come March.
2. California Golden Bears
The Golden Bears made tremendous strides in 2013, and they gave Syracuse a massive scare despite shooing 19% from three in the NCAA tournament before being bounced.
Mike Montgomery is a known commodity and proven winner. His roster will experience some turnover given the loss of Allen Crabbe and Robert Thurman, two of the Bears’ most reliable pieces, but with Justin Cobbs back, he’ll be set at the most important lineup slot: point guard.
The expected growth of rising senior Richard Solomon and the defensive attributes of junior-to-be David Kravish, and the Bears are very unlikely to fall flat on their face come November.
Jabari Bird is an Oakland native who, at 6’6, can play both shooting guard and small forward. He possesses good range and explosiveness, and he could make Cal fans forget about Crabbe sooner than later.
Kameron Rooks is still a raw prospect hailing from the southern part of the state, at a seven-footer with a wealth of upside. He won’t have to play right away and can add depth to Montgomery’s front court rotation.
Ricky Kreklow never quite fit in the way one would hope in year one following his transfer from Missouri, but he played well in the NCAA tournament and should see a major increase in minutes this year as the only other experienced point guard on the roster.
Arizona should still be the dominant group in the Pac-12 and many will assume Cal falls off in the wake of their departures, but I’d keep an eye on Cal.
3. Tennessee Volunteers
Yes, the Kentucky Wildcats have reloaded and look to be nothing short of dominant next year bringing in a recruiting class for the ages. Additionally, the Gators’, while losing a few bodies, will be even stronger inside for 2013-2014.
That said; Tennessee is a team that could make major headway in the SEC next year after a disappointing finish last season. Their key issues coming into the off-season center around the depth of a roster that had been more or less decimated following program violations after Bruce Pearl’s departure.
Incoming shooting guard Robert Hubbs is the fourth ranked prospect at that position according to ESPN, and A.J. Davis of Norcross, GA is a 6’6 small forward with good versatility. The two together were expected to add that missing depth.
There’s been some messy news out of Knoxville that Trae Golden, the Volunteer’s steady hand at the point for the last few years, will be transferring out. Head Coach Cuonzo Martin states it was due to academic reasons (including plagiarism), but many believe Golden was forced out of Tennessee by Martin due to the lack of available scholarships. Regardless of reason, it’s a huge loss as Golden registered 30 minutes or more in the Vols’ final nine games of the 2012-2013 season. He had more turnovers than assists in only 6 games all year, a telling stat considering the fact he played the position so extensively. This loss could be crippling for a program hoping to take a big step forward in what will be Cuonzo Martin’s third year at Tennessee.
4. Oregon Ducks
Yes, Tony Woods Arsalan Kazemi, E.J. Singler and Carlos Emory are all gone, and it’s unlikely they will be replaced quickly, but Dana Altman will catch a break by grabbing Mike Moser from UNLV in a rather unexpected turn of events.
Moser will graduate now and become eligible immediately. Moser is an incredibly talented player who battled injuries and lack of production while sitting behind stud freshman Anthony Bennett a year ago. Moving up to the northwest and getting the chance to play with Dominic Artis in a conference that generally lacks great defense should be helpful for him.
Oregon has their share of question marks, but they have seven commits coming in for the 2013-2014 season, including; Jordan Bell of Long Beach and A.J. Lapray, both of whom will help along the frontline.
They also get two brothers from San Diego in Tyree and Terrell Robinson, adding further depth to an already stacked backcourt. The Ducks’ will be somewhat thin across the frontline, but Moser can make up for that, and when you think about this conference, no one outside of ‘Zona has great depth in that area.
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Gophers’ started its off-season by grabbing Richard Pitino in a move that was both bold and questioned. Tubby Smith’s removal was questionable and unfair, but I do think baby Pitino is going to be a good hire, and Richard should have little trouble recruiting — he’s well connected down south and in the northeast. Simply put, father Rick won’t let him fail and will undoubtedly send him transfers year in and year out.
Dre Mathieu is a talented and athletic JUCO guard comparable to Artis who can help them immediately. Andre and Austin Hollins return to Minny as well, and the addition of a talent like former UCLA signee Allerik Freeman would be another coup. The Gophers’ lose quite a bit in their frontcourt with the graduation of both, Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe.
Coach will use the speed and athleticism he possesses at the guard position to play up tempo and in your face, a Pitino staple. Increased offensive efficiency with his group will help and Minnesota will have a chance to be good quite soon.
Too often a season ago we saw a hesitant group that was almost afraid to advance beyond the restraints of their half-court offense. They looked uncomfortable and lacked confidence at times, relying far too much on offensive rebounding to generate scoring. That will change under Pitino given his past body of work, and given the question marks surrounding some former Big Ten powers; this Minnesota team could make moves once again.