Written By: @ToddFuhrman
We’ve all been there before: stuck racking our brain with how to structure monies on a Saturday when 15 plays across 4 sports appear too good to pass up. Let me quiet a myth right now: there’s no fixed number of games to play but a bettor should always be cognizant of how much liability is being extended at any given time. I know this seems somewhat counter-intuitive for those just learning the ropes; however, like every other lesson in sports gambling, it will make sense in time as your experience grows and leads us to the discussion of units: the case for and against flat betting.
Bettors talk about unit count all the time to keep tabs on their results. It’s an effective way to share with friends and members of the gambling community relative strength of each play without disclosing how much makes up an actual bet. Units should rarely be weighted the same across all sports since every bettor has his or her strengths and needs to strike from an advantaged position. The reality of sports betting is the better you become, the harder it is to get down large amounts anywhere, let alone in the smaller niche markets (WNBA, AFL, Golf, NASCARR). However, I digress a bit from my main thesis of trying to make a case for and against the merits of flat betting no matter the sport, no matter the streak, and no matter the strength of the play.
You know what it feels like; staring at a game all week you knew was worth way more than just a single play but you didn’t pull the trigger because of “sound money management principles.” Talk to the elite gamblers in the world and they’ll be the first to tell you recognizing the edge, knowing when to take shots, separates the best from the rest. There’s a reason Billy Walters wagers $25,000 one game and $3,000,000 the next. INCREASED EDGE! Over the course of a calendar year, a handful of situations present themselves and no bettor should be shackled by the normal tenants of traditional money management. Assessing your positions should be going on throughout the year, always seeking an opportunity to make larger bets when the confluence of handicapping angles all align themselves.
Math says the sheer volume of plays it requires to flat bet games doesn’t make the strategy financially viable over the long term unless you have a hefty bankroll. Hypothetically, let’s figure you make 2,000 bets a year for a dime ($1,000) per bet. Knowing the gold standard for handicapping is 60%, we’ll figure for argument’s sake our bettor hits 58% of wagers which places them in the 99.9 percentile. Rather than account for money lines, exotics, futures, etc. we’ll assume standard 11/10 juice for each wager made.
2,000 wagers x 1,100 per wager = 2,200,000 total annual risk.
Winning 58% of your bets leaves you with a record of 1160 – 840 which won’t account for a handful of pushes and other assorted outcomes.
With these numbers, your potential annual net income is (1160*1000) – (840*1100) = 320,000. Not a bad little living if you can swing it.
Now if your win percentage drops to 54%, the math looks very different: (1080*1000) – (920*1100) = 160,000.
If you’ve stayed with me this long you obviously can extrapolate results and figure out exactly what the net looks like for a $100, $250, $500 bettor. Without over simplifying, a drop of 1% in your annual win percentage creates a net change of roughly 40,000!
Why is this important? The reality is if you can identify winning spots 54% of the time at minimum (52.4% is the break even point), you should be able to effectively locate opportunities that call for 2x, 3x, and maybe even 5x your normal wager. Traditionally, I believe the more junior you are in betting sports, flat betting makes the most fiscal sense. It allows you to avoid huge volatile swings from differentiated units and can protect you from going on tilt or over extending yourself at the wrong time. Additionally, most recreational bettors have a difficult time identifying their edge. Part of the strategy behind flat betting is that it doesn’t place added emphasis on must win games over others; you just determine if a situation warrants a wager and your amount to bet is standardized.
From my experience, figuring out the sports where you have an edge is the turning point in a gambler’s evolution. Keeping accurate records for actual dollars won/lost (you can’t take units to the bank) and itemized accounting means you’re ready to take sports gambling more seriously. It’s not for everyone and I’ll never say it is, so for those who want to be taken seriously by their peers or want to be honest with themselves, your bank roll serves as the only scoreboard you’ll ever need.
When it comes to betting sports for keeps, the best bettors in the world know when it’s time to take shots. For those looking to stay in the game a long time and approach more casually, flat betting can be your friend. Setting realistic goals and knowing your objectives will always help you make the best financial decisions in any market.