Written By: @PayneInsider
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Chicago Bears -6
Over/Under: 47
One of the toughest games on the Week 7 board, so it’s no surprise our group and a majority of sharp bettors I speak with are treading lightly. Based on the math, our TRUE NUMBER is Chicago -7.25, so there’s SOME value getting the Bears’ under a touchdown with “SEVEN” being the second largest key number in the NFL with roughly 11% of games landing there.
Match ups, situations, and information play a significant role in this game. Hard to neglect the fact that NFC underdogs are a mind blowing 37-7-2 ATS this season (83%), but Schwartz’ Lions have covered the number in just 39% of their road games since he took over in 2009. Chicago is second in the NFL in takeaways averaging 3.4 per game – that can’t withstand the test of time. Chicago’s 4-1 but their 5 opponents have a combined record of 14-18, hardly anything to write home to mom about.
An important element most recreational bettors neglect in their numbers is special teams – in a game like this it should be at the forefront of your handicapping. The Bears’ special team unit has been one of the leagues best, ranked 3rd in the NFL overall. Conversely, special teams is Detroit’s achilles heel ranked 31st. Pay close attention to the hidden yards racked up throughout the game.
For Detroit, the goal is maintaining offensive balance so Stafford doesn’t have to force the ball like he does so often. Since Leshoure entered the starting lineup, the Lions’ are averaging 3.7 points more per game – Mikel will look to impress in his return back home (Illinois).
I think Detroit is the more desperate of the two; Chicago can afford to drop a game. I know the Lions’ are the side two of the largest syndicate groups are looking towards but again, neither has jumped in yet.
We saw early money come in on the UNDER 48 minutes after this line opened eight days ago. At the current number of 47 there’s still value as my true number is 44 – above the key number of 45. Anything at 45.5 or better is worth a look towards the under and I expect this to tick back up as recreational bettors enter the market closer to kickoff.