NFL Primetime Games and Their Intrinsic Betting Value

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NFL Primetime Games and Their Intrinsic Betting Value

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Opening weekend in the NFL is unlike anything else – excitement and hope is in the air and sitting down to watch the nationally televised game is a trend most fans follow regardless of whether or not their team is involved. Week 1 featured four primetime affairs, starting with Baltimore and Denver Thursday night. Three games followed, all of which blew through bookmaker projections. All four Week 1 primetime games went over the number and did so by an average of 17-points per game. It got me thinking about this specific betting spot in terms of what value primetime games hold given the current state of the NFL.

Just this past Sunday, another marquee NFL matchup, although non-qualifying in terms of being a ‘primetime spot’, saw Denver and Dallas duel to a 51-48 final. This game proved to be just another reminder of the direction in which this league is heading.

That said, the tendency for higher scoring games amongst certain teams is not going unnoticed in Las Vegas. This past week, the Broncos’ total closed as high as 58-points at the Mirage, while last week’s Denver-Philadelphia matchup sported a total as high as 59! This week, four match-ups have totals in the 50’s – an unthinkable proposition just a few short seasons ago. Betting UNDER in games aligned in the 50’s was something the sharpest groups virtually did blind – not anymore. Adapt or die.

When talking totals and primetime games in particular, they offer incredible opportunities for gamblers in general. By the time Thursday night rolls around each week, people everywhere are salivating for action. Each Sunday, after the early games conclude both winners and losers flock to sports books and computers alike in hopes of doubling-up or chasing to get even. Because of that, primetime games offer a market unlike any other. Nowhere else throughout a weekend slate can you find such an event that features game theory and complete market economics in their utmost form. People work off incentives, and if you have a feel for what has transpired during the day, you can often transition that into opportunity.

Looking at primetime games in more detail; opening weekend was so eye-opening because it initially confirmed the tendency for games to sail over. That trend came on strong towards the end of last year and seemed to continue. The fact that the league seems to make an attempt to put its best quarterbacks in the national spotlight, knows these games will be their most viewed, knows the casual fan likes points, potentially instructs officials to call more “offensive-friendly” penalties (pass interference, defensive holding, roughing the passer etc.) lends credence to the notion, but it’s been proven inconclusive thus far.

For arguments sake, we looked at totals for the previous two seasons (as well as 2013) and broke down the data. While this is a very small sample size, it focuses on when the totals market completely shifted. For something like this, gauging totals from 1990 would be completely irrelevant and would skew data.

Season to date, the over is 11-6 (64.7%) in marquee games (7-6 since its opening weekend start of 4-0). During 2012, the over in primetime games finished at 19-28-2 (40.4%), while in 2011 it went 21-20-1 (51.2%). Remember, 52.38% is the break even point on bets placed at -110 vig.

That 2012 statistic is alarmingly telling because it was taken from the year in which it seemed like a plethora of totals went over. That clearly wasn’t the case. More to the point, certain teams specifically seemed to really adhere to that trend (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and New Orleans to name a few) as opposed to the league in general.

Considering the league has made a more widespread attempt to get variety in these primetime spots (Buffalo at Cleveland), it also makes sense that a lot of these games will go under. Jeff Tuel and Brandon Weeden deserve their T.V. time too, I guess.

That said, the data seemed to illustrate these betting markets were not only unique, but also extremely profitable if played the correct way. While there’s some truth to the “marquee quarterback” theory for primetime games, there were also some interesting trends relating to other factors.

Aaron Rodgers is as good a signal caller as there is in this league. As a result, he was thrust into the spotlight five times in 2012. The over in those games: 1-4, with the lone over-victory coming against a weak Texans defense that was still figuring out how to play in the wake of the Brian Cushing injury. Rodgers played division-rival Chicago in Week 2 on a Thursday night; that game went under primarily due to Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offensive line proving completely inept at dealing with Green Bay’s pass rush. Rodgers was also part of the Monday night 14-12 “loss” in Seattle that featured an infamous touchdown call by replacement officials as time expired. The Pack’s Week 12 matchup in New York went under thanks to Green Bay only mustering 10-points as a result of a myriad of serious injuries that limited their offense. They also saw their Sunday night affair at home against Detroit two weeks later fall short by a point in a game that featured heavy snow.

In each situation, factors outside of just the quarterback and their team’s offensive regularities came into play in a huge way. Generally speaking, divisional matchups went under at slightly less than 2-1, a reminder that rivalries tend to bring about tight play and extreme familiarity lending itself to lower scoring.

Moreover, the timing of matchups was also an important consideration. Philadelphia went well over the total in their opener with Washington back in week one, but followed that up with a home bout against Kansas City in week three which saw them play their third game in 11 days (prime under spot).

What does all of this mean? Well, we must continue monitoring, but the notion of primetime OVERS presenting quality betting opportunities has since been thrown out the window after going 48.6% over a 107-game sample size that focuses strictly on the current totals market. That said, each game is its own entity and possess its own set of factors to be considered.

Clearly, the NFL enjoys trotting its biggest names and games out on center stage. That might mean Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning, but in the end, it’s all relative. Sports betting is a market, and whether games are aligned in the 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, and yes, even the 60’s now…at some point the leg-work must be done. Circumstances and factors unbeknownst initially must be dissected for long-term profitability. Just remember, those primetime games will offer value, especially when the betting market is at its most voluminous point.

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