Written By: Billy Attridge
Buffalo (4-3) at New York (1-6)
Current Line: Jets -3, 40
Analysis: This line opened Jets -2.5 (-120), and quickly jumped to NYJ -3, with professionals buying the Jets up to the most important number in the NFL. The total has been bet down off a key total number of 41, which seems to be a reasonable spot for the Bills and Jets; two teams whom excel on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 4th and 7th in opponents yards per play, and struggle offensively, ranking 25th and 31st, respectively. The Bills are coming off an emotional high, winning in the final seconds at home vs. the Vikings. Although they grabbed the victory, they lost the services of RB’s Jackson and Spiller. While the running back position is not of high value in today’s NFL, the loss of a leader like Jackson stings. Buffalo’s porous offensive line facing arguably the best front 4 football spells a long day for Kyle Orton and company. The Jets have added rest time, and despite the poor record, should be ready to go for this one.
Final Thoughts: For me, this betting line acknowledges the changes in the NFL Betting Market. We have a 4-3 Bills team who has beaten a public team (Chicago), a strong up and coming team (Miami), and a division leader (Detroit), catching 3 points from a 1-6 team whose QB and coach are routinely mocked in the mainstream media. If you can find a stray 2.5 (-120) or better, investing in the Jets looks to be the way to go.
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Baltimore (5-2) at Cincinnati (3-2-1)
Current Line: Bengals PK, 45.5
Analysis: The Ravens opened up +2.5, and have been bet down to +1/PK at some offshore sports books. This game is huge in terms of division and playoff implications, especially for the Bengals. Going 0-3-1 after their bye week could cripple this team, and will definitely make them an underdog to make the playoffs. While the Ravens seem to roll at home, the road struggles that follow Joe Flacco and this crew cannot be over-looked. That being said, the Ravens should be focused, looking for revenge after their Week 1 home loss on their minds.
Final Thoughts: While I have Baltimore power rated a bit higher than Cincinnati, this spot and number does not feel right. I think we’ll see a decent effort from the Bengals, with or without A.J. Green. The look-ahead line on this match-up was Cincinnati-3.5, and any value for the Ravens was lost after Week 7’s results. This line needs some monitoring, and if it continues it’s downward trend (70% of tickets on Baltimore), it may require taking a position on the home team.
Green Bay (5-2) at New Orleans (2-4)
Current Line: Saints -1, 56
Analysis: Two teams moving in two directions, it seems. Packers have won four straight, scoring almost 37 points per game in that stretch, with an average winning margin of almost 19 points per game. Rodgers has been a torch this season, throwing for 18 TD’s and only 1 INT through 7 games. The Saints, on the other hand, fell apart in Week 7, blowing a 24-10 lead with under four minutes to go. The key to this game is the time. Yes, oddsmakers and bettors alike have recognized the drastic home/road dichotomy the Saints have carried with them the past half-decade. However, Sunday night provides the first home prime-time spot for New Orleans this year. This appears to be a must win for the Saints, who, despite the poor play, are only 1 game back in the seemingly dreadful NFC South with two games remaining versus the Panthers.
Final Thoughts: Like the Manning-led Broncos, home team and over in prime-time spots just seems to click when it comes to New Orleans. At 56, I cannot justify market entry on the over at this time. The Saints normal home-field advantage may fall between 3.5-4.5, but in this prime-time spot vs. Rodgers and the Pack, I do not think it’s unreasonable to make this closer to its peak. Laying 1 or better with the Saints makes a ton of sense.