Written By: @PayneInsider
Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants
Favorite: Tigers -175
Underdog: Giants +155
Whether you’re in the dugout playing 162 games plus playoffs and world series or you’re on the sidelines betting, Major League Baseball is the ultimate grind. Each game is its own entity and a small spec to the 5,000 piece puzzle. Recreational bettors will see Justin Verlander on the bump in Game 1 with the potential to pitch three games in the World Series and assume the results are a forgone conclusion, thus, not wavering when laying the wood. But remember, each game throughout the course of the season is a tiny piece to the puzzle.
The math guys have spoken: Detroit becomes World Series Champions 56% of the time. Recreational bettors who ponied up and paid -175 are jubilant roughly 5.5 times out of 10. Unfortunately, for recreational bettors they don’t realize they’re paying a premium on the Tigers. Sure, APPLE is a great company and stock to own if you had the the foresight to purchase at $200 per share. But, what about now at $600 per share? Same concept applies here.
With the above odds; Tigers -175/Giants +155 you would need the Detroit Tigers to win the World Series 61.9% of the time JUST TO BREAK EVEN! Betting on money line sports is a completely different animal. Sure, the Yankees’ win roughly 100 games every season, but if you’re laying 2/1 every night you’re going to lose money long term. It’s one of the few sports where you can hit 61.7% (100-62), and lose money. 100 WINS X $100 = +$10,000. 62 LOSSES X $200 = -$12,400. As gamblers, we don’t get paid in percentages. 61.7% doesn’t pay the bills, only cash does.
If you read our MLB second-half betting preview (neglecting our brain fart on the Athletics’), and bet the San Francisco Giants at 14-1 to win the World Series you’re sitting pretty right now. Effectively, beating the market by more than 900%! I’m against hedging for the most part (it’s for landscapers), but a 5-month investment at 14-1 I simply can’t argue with those wanting to guarantee profit.
If you didn’t read our second-half MLB preview, I would suggest siding with the math geeks. Math plays an integral role in baseball handicapping, more than any other sport. If you’re a sports bettor that wagers daily, you can not pass up the value San Francisco +155 or better presents, specifically, with home field advantage and National League rules in your back pocket for the majority of the World Series.