Archives October 2012

Written By: @PayneInsider

It’s been 69 years since the metropolitan area was hit by a late-season hurricane, but that won’t stop us from betting football today! Below are the games weather will play a significant role in, so make sure you’ve factored it into your handicapping. Remember one thing, don’t solely place bets based upon weather – make sure other significant factors play a role.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+3, 41)
Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium
Forecast: 100% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north at 24 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 45.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 41.5)
Site: Lincoln Financial Field
Forecast: 100% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north-east at 17 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 46.5

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-1, 38)
Site: MetLife Stadium
Forecast: 70% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north-east at 14-17 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 40.5

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-7.5, 42)
Site: Soldier Field
Forecast: 20% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north at 18 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 45

Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 44)
Site: Heinz Field
Forecast: 70% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the south at 13 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 47.5

Written By: @PayneInsider

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants
Favorite: Tigers -175
Underdog: Giants +155

Whether you’re in the dugout playing 162 games plus playoffs and world series or you’re on the sidelines betting, Major League Baseball is the ultimate grind. Each game is its own entity and a small spec to the 5,000 piece puzzle. Recreational bettors will see Justin Verlander on the bump in Game 1 with the potential to pitch three games in the World Series and assume the results are a forgone conclusion, thus, not wavering when laying the wood. But remember, each game throughout the course of the season is a tiny piece to the puzzle.

The math guys have spoken: Detroit becomes World Series Champions 56% of the time. Recreational bettors who ponied up and paid -175 are jubilant roughly 5.5 times out of 10. Unfortunately, for recreational bettors they don’t realize they’re paying a premium on the Tigers. Sure, APPLE is a great company and stock to own if you had the the foresight to purchase at $200 per share. But, what about now at $600 per share? Same concept applies here.

With the above odds; Tigers -175/Giants +155 you would need the Detroit Tigers to win the World Series 61.9% of the time JUST TO BREAK EVEN! Betting on money line sports is a completely different animal. Sure, the Yankees’ win roughly 100 games every season, but if you’re laying 2/1 every night you’re going to lose money long term. It’s one of the few sports where you can hit 61.7% (100-62), and lose money. 100 WINS X $100 = +$10,000. 62 LOSSES X $200 = -$12,400. As gamblers, we don’t get paid in percentages. 61.7% doesn’t pay the bills, only cash does.

If you read our MLB second-half betting preview (neglecting our brain fart on the Athletics’), and bet the San Francisco Giants at 14-1 to win the World Series you’re sitting pretty right now. Effectively, beating the market by more than 900%! I’m against hedging for the most part (it’s for landscapers), but a 5-month investment at 14-1 I simply can’t argue with those wanting to guarantee profit.

If you didn’t read our second-half MLB preview, I would suggest siding with the math geeks. Math plays an integral role in baseball handicapping, more than any other sport. If you’re a sports bettor that wagers daily, you can not pass up the value San Francisco +155 or better presents, specifically, with home field advantage and National League rules in your back pocket for the majority of the World Series.

Written By: @PayneInsider

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Chicago Bears -6
Over/Under: 47

One of the toughest games on the Week 7 board, so it’s no surprise our group and a majority of sharp bettors I speak with are treading lightly. Based on the math, our TRUE NUMBER is Chicago -7.25, so there’s SOME value getting the Bears’ under a touchdown with “SEVEN” being the second largest key number in the NFL with roughly 11% of games landing there.

Match ups, situations, and information play a significant role in this game. Hard to neglect the fact that NFC underdogs are a mind blowing 37-7-2 ATS this season (83%), but Schwartz’ Lions have covered the number in just 39% of their road games since he took over in 2009. Chicago is second in the NFL in takeaways averaging 3.4 per game – that can’t withstand the test of time. Chicago’s 4-1 but their 5 opponents have a combined record of 14-18, hardly anything to write home to mom about.

An important element most recreational bettors neglect in their numbers is special teams – in a game like this it should be at the forefront of your handicapping. The Bears’ special team unit has been one of the leagues best, ranked 3rd in the NFL overall. Conversely, special teams is Detroit’s achilles heel ranked 31st. Pay close attention to the hidden yards racked up throughout the game.

For Detroit, the goal is maintaining offensive balance so Stafford doesn’t have to force the ball like he does so often. Since Leshoure entered the starting lineup, the Lions’ are averaging 3.7 points more per game – Mikel will look to impress in his return back home (Illinois).

I think Detroit is the more desperate of the two; Chicago can afford to drop a game. I know the Lions’ are the side two of the largest syndicate groups are looking towards but again, neither has jumped in yet.

We saw early money come in on the UNDER 48 minutes after this line opened eight days ago. At the current number of 47 there’s still value as my true number is 44 – above the key number of 45. Anything at 45.5 or better is worth a look towards the under and I expect this to tick back up as recreational bettors enter the market closer to kickoff.