Archives December 2012

Bowl Season kicked off with Nevada vs. Arizona and concludes in Miami on January 7th when Notre Dame takes on Alabama for all the marbles. Our Bowl Season Blowout Package covers every bet we make over the next three weeks at 50% OFF! There’s no secret how the College Football season is going — a documented (95-55-1) 63% good for +99.9 DIMES. Our College Football bets have beat the closing line by an average 1.81 points this season. A $100 bettor is up close to $10,000 betting our College Football Picks starting from August 30th, through January 1st! Get on board the team for Bowl Season for a fraction of the price. Of late, we’re (31-9-1) our last 41 College Football bets and a 14-6 to start bowl season! This package expires at Midnight Tonight!

College Football Bowl Season Blowout Package

$155

Written By: Aaron Marcotte, @MoreThanFantasy

Monday Night Football Odds: Texans vs. Patriots
Point Spread: New England -6, Houston +6
Over/Under: 52.5

The NFL and ESPN will likely see their highest rating of the year for Monday Night Football this week. Both teams in this heavyweight showdown are currently riding six-game winning streaks, making their case for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Both teams come into this game with massive point differentials. New England has the highest in the league at +170, while the Texans are a robust +130. Only two other teams carry a positive differential greater than 100 coming into week 14 (49ers and Broncos both +118). Needless to say, these are two of the elite teams in the NFL and a potential glance at what could be the AFC Championship matchup come January.

Houston came into this season with lofty expectations to morph this relatively new
franchise into a yearly contender. After starting 2011 at 10-3, the Texans’ lost their final three games to finish 10-6, clinching the AFC South in the process. Matt Schaub was lost in week 10 to a foot injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. Rookie quarterback T.J. Yates filled in admirably, but the loss of Schaub proved too much for the Texans to overcome. Yates threw three interceptions in the conference semifinal against the Ravens in the process of falling 20-13.

This year’s Texans, led by Schaub and Arian Foster, came out of the gates with a vengeance. They currently sit at 11-1 with their lone loss at the hands of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Houston boasts the 2nd ranked rushing defense and the 6th ranked rushing offense. This zone-running offense is the Texans bread and butter in addition to a quarterback in Matt Schaub who has covered the spread in 18 of his last 22 starts – it helps having Andre Johnson in your back pocket, too. Owen Daniels has been greatly improved this year, giving Schaub a trustworthy option wreaking havoc over the middle. Foster continues to prove that he is one of the top backs in the league, leading all rushers in carries and touchdowns. Although he has 13 touchdowns in 12 games, the most amazing statistic of Foster’s season is that he has lost only one fumble in 280 carries.

New England came into this season just like any other in the past decade. Expectations
are sky-high and failure isn’t an consideration. After starting the year 1-2, you can bet panic started to set in with the fans in the Northeast. The Patriots proceeded to win eight of their next nine games; all but three by a hefty margin. Brady and McDaniels have put together four 2007-like performances putting up scoring totals of 45, 49, 52 and 59. With 25 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, Tom is continuing to flourish in Belichick’s system. The scariest part of the Patriots offense this year is the emergence of their running game.

Steven Ridley, second year running back out of LSU, has taken advantage of every
opportunity handed to him this year. In his rookie season Ridley managed 5.1 ypc in a limited role. Coming into the season he was given the reigns as the starter and exploded for 125 yards on 21 carries in his first game in Tennessee. He never looked back and has already surpassed 1,000-yard mark, adding 9 rushing touchdowns for good measure.

In games of this magnitude there’s exciting matchups all over the field – games within the game if you may. Good teams are often judged based on their ability to convert, or get a stop on third-down. Houston’s defense allows the lowest third-down conversion rate in the NFL. Not surprisingly, New England has the league’s top third-down offense. Voila – a match made in Roger Goodell-heaven. Another intriguing matchup is the Patriots 9th ranked rushing defense against Arian Foster. Behind Houston’s zone-blocking scheme, Foster hits holes decisively and has breakaway straight-line speed. He’s constantly falling forward and punishing defenders that get in his way. Houston will be looking to establish the ground game early and often, while the Patriots do everything in their power to minimize his yards per carry.

Both teams combine a high powered offense with a defense predicated on takeaways. New England leads the league with a +24 differential and Houston is tied for second with +14. The winner of the takeaway battle will likely hail victorious. We as fans of the NFL cannot ask for a better Monday Night Football game to watch in week 14. Neither team’s season will be in jeopardy if they were to lose, but important statements will be made based on the final outcome.

TRENDS:
~ Texans are 9-1-1 ATS their last 12 games versus an opponent with a winning record.
~ Texans are 18-4 ATS their last 22 games Matt Schaub has started.
~ Patriots games have gone OVER the total in 37 of their last 51 games.

TEXANS vs PATRIOTS MNF FREE PICK: TEXANS-PATRIOTS UNDER 52.5

Written By: @PayneInsider

Manny Pacquiao vs. Juan Manuel Marquez Betting Odds
Line: Pacquiao -250 favorite, Marquez +220 underdog
Over/Under: 10.5 rounds

Saturday night the MGM Grand Garden Arena hosts two fighters who fame and favor have not shunned despite age. The two brawlers are familiar with this city, the big stage, and more importantly, or each other. These two warriors have provided the sport of boxing a trio of action-packed bouts that have left fight fans throughout the world extremely satisfied. This match represents the fourth time Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez have squared off in the ring since 2004.

Over the past few weeks there’s been plenty of hype from the Pacquiao camp regarding how well prepared he is for this fight. By comparison, Marquez’s team has been low-key and extremely secretive about how their guy’s training has gone. But when you’re talking about these two fighters, there isn’t much either can bring to the table at this stage in their careers that the other doesn’t already know.

They last went toe to toe for the full twelve just a year ago, making it a total of thirty-six rounds in eight years. What’s so amazing about this epic battle between two of the greatest boxers is the fact that if not for the judgment of referee Joe Cortez the first go-round in May of 2004, we most likely wouldn’t have the pleasure of viewing the quartet this evening.

Many fans are not excited to see the fourth installment of this fight. However, you can’t deny this fight will be a technical clinic. One of the greatest boxing cliches is; ‘styles make fights,’ this fight becomes the definition of that. Pacquiao is an aggressive, high volume puncher and Marquez is one of the best counterpunchers in the world. When the dust settles, it’s all about what the judges like. If the judges like aggressive style fighting and initiating the battle, then they will side with Pacquiao once again. If they are patient, and don’t mind counter-style fighting, then they will favor Marquez.

Most, including myself, believe Juan Manuel Marquez won the last fight despite judges giving Manny Pacquiao the majority decision victory. The controversy that ensued after is the reason we get another opportunity to determine who is truly the better of the two fighters, if of course one is able to finally win convincingly.

Betting odds opened Manny Pacquiao as a -350 favorite over Juan Manuel Marquez, who in turn offers his backers a generous +280 if he can finally pull it off. If you remember, this price reflects a major adjustment from a year ago when Pacquiao who was defending his WBO welterweight title was listed as high as -800! After the first three fights being the ultimate coin flip, we’ve seen sharp money come in on the underdog Marquez. Current odds have Manny Pacquiao -250 with the return price on Marquez at +220.

Both fighters can take a serious punch, their chins have never been in question – judges likely decide these fighters fate again Saturday night. Pacquaio and Marquez know each other in-and-out, and that familiarity is where in lies our edge. Marquez has never been knocked out in any of his fights and Pacquiao has not been finished inside the distance since 1999 when Medgoen Singsurat KO’d him for the Lineal Flyweight Title. With a coin-flip bout on our hands the value Marquez presents to the bettor is hard to pass up. Simply put, at +220 you only need Marquez to win this fight 32% of the time to earn profit long-term.

Pacquiao vs Marquez 4 Free Betting Pick: Juan Manuel Marquez +220

Written By: @PayneInsider

24 days, 70 teams, 35 games and one massive controversy over whether or not Northern Illinois deserves the right to play Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

Money is typically the rule of all evil, but in this case, the Orange Bowl would’ve profited tenfold off of a National power like Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M or Oklahoma battling the Noles’ in Miami. The Huskies are capitalizing on a system that won’t allow more than two teams from the same conference playing in a BCS Bowl game.

Without further ado, let the bowl season begin!

* * *

Saturday, December 15th – Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
Spread: Nevada vs. Arizona -9.5
Over/Under: 75.5

Saturday, December 15th – Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Location: Boise, Idaho
Spread: Toledo vs. Utah State -10
Over/Under: 58

Thursday, December 20th – San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Location: San Diego, California
Spread: BYU -3.5 vs. San Diego State
Over/Under: 48.5

Friday, December 21st – Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl
Location: Saint Petersburg, Florida
Spread: Ball State vs. Central Florida -7
Over/Under: 61.5

Saturday, December 22nd – R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Spread: East Carolina vs. UL Lafayette -4.5
Over/Under: 65

Saturday, December 22nd – Maaco Bowl
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Spread: Washington vs. Boise State -5
Over/Under: 46.5

Monday, December 24th – Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Spread: SMU Vs. Fresno State -12.5
Over/Under: 59.5

Wednesday, December 26th – Little Caesars Bowl
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Spread: Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky -5
Over/Under: 57.5

Thursday, December 27th – Military Bowl
Location: Washington, D.C.
Spread: Bowling Green vs. San Jose State -7
Over/Under: 46

Thursday, December 27th – Belk Bowl
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Spread: Cincinnati -7 vs. Duke
Over/Under: 60

Thursday, December 27th – Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Location: San Diego, California
Spread: Baylor PK vs. UCLA Pick’Em
Over/Under: 79.5

Friday, December 28th – Advocare V100 Independence Bowl
Location: Shreveport, Louisiana
Spread: Ohio vs. UL Monroe -7
Over/Under: 60

Friday, December 28th – Russell Athletic Bowl
Location: Orlando, Florida
Spread: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech -2.5
Over/Under: 41.5

Friday, December 28th – Meineke Car Care Bowl
Location: Houston, Texas
Spread: Minnesota vs. Texas Tech -13
Over/Under: 57

Saturday, December 29th – Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Location: Forth Worth, Texas
Spread: Air Force -1 vs. Rice
Over/Under: 61

Saturday, December 29th – Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Location: San Francisco, California
Spread: Navy vs. Arizona State -14.5
Over/Under: 56

Saturday, December 29th – New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Location: Bronx, New York
Spread: West Virginia -4 vs. Syracuse
Over/Under: 73.5

Saturday, December 29th – Valero Alamo Bowl
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Spread: Texas vs. Oregon State -2
Over/Under: 56.5

Saturday, December 29th – Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Spread: TCU -2.5 vs. Michigan State
Over/Under: 41

Monday, December 31st – Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Location: Nashville, Tennessee
Spread: North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt -7
Over/Under: 52

Monday, December 31st – Hyundai Sun Bowl
Location: El Paso, Texas
Spread: Georgia Tech vs. USC -10
Over/Under: 64

Monday, December 31st – AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Location: Memphis, Tennessee
Spread: Iowa State vs. Tulsa Pick’Em
Over/Under: 51.5

Monday, December 31st – Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Spread: Clemson vs. LSU -4
Over/Under: 59

Tuesday, January 1st – Heart of Dallas Bowl
Location: Dallas, Texas
Spread: Purdue vs. Oklahoma State -16.5
Over/Under: 70

Tuesday, January 1st – TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
Spread: Northwestern vs. Mississippi State -2
Over/Under: 51.5

Tuesday, January 1st – Outback Bowl
Location: Tampa, Florida
Spread: Michigan vs. South Carolina -5.5
Over/Under: 48

Tuesday, January 1st – Capital One Bowl
Location: Orlando, Florida
Spread: Nebraska vs. Georgia -10
Over/Under: 60

Tuesday, January 1st – Rose Bowl Game Presented By Vizio
Location: Pasadena, California
Spread: Wisconsin vs. Stanford -6.5
Over/Under: 47.5

Tuesday, January 1st – Discover Orange Bowl
Location: Miami, Florida
Spread: Northern Illinois vs. Florida State -13
Over/Under: 58.5

Wednesday, January 2nd – Allstate Sugar Bowl
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Spread: Louisville vs. Florida -13.5
Over/Under: 45.5

Thursday, January 3rd – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Location: Glendale, Arizona
Spread: Kansas Sate vs. Oregon -9
Over/Under: 75.5

Friday, January 4th – AT&T Cotton Bowl
Location: Arlington, Texas
Spread: Texas A&M -4.5 vs. Oklahoma
Over/Under: 72

Saturday, January 5th – BBVA Compass Bowl
Location: Birmingham, Alabama
Spread: Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi -3.5
Over/Under: 52.5

Sunday, January 6th – GoDaddy.com Bowl
Location: Mobile, Alabama
Spread: Arkansas State -3.5 vs. Kent State
Over/Under: 61

Monday, January 7th – Discover BCS National Championship
Location: Miami, Florida
Spread: Notre Dame vs. Alabama -10
Over/Under: 41.5

Written By: Aaron Marcotte, @MoreThanFantasy

Monday Night Football Odds: Giants vs. Redskins
Point Spread: New York -3, Washington +3
Over/Under: 50

Each and every year the NFC East is touted as one of the most talented and toughest divisions in the NFL – and each and every year at least one team disappoints. This year every team except 2011’s last place Redskins has disappointed in one way or another. Three of the four teams currently sit at or below .500, and the last place Eagles have been battling Rex Ryan’s Jets for biggest bust of the year. The Cowboys have underperformed yet again, managing only six wins with a plethora of talent on the roster. This leaves us with our week 13 match up: New York Giants vs. the Washington Redskins.

The Giants have had a roller coaster year thus far and who knows if the largest drop has come. To say they have disappointed is a reach, but their recent stretch of poor performances had fans and analysts concerned. Eli went through a dead-arm phase and lost sight of the end zone, failing to record a passing touchdown in three straight games, while tossing 4 interceptions. But isn’t that mid-season funk common place for the boys in blue? The last 58 games played in weeks 10 through 12; New York is just 16-42 against the spread, including 1-9 against the spread since 2009! But last week Eli showed his Manning heritage by throwing for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in a turnover free beat down of the Packers. Hakeem Nicks has proclaimed himself the healthiest he has been all year which only bodes well for the football Giants.

Washington has been a pleasant surprise in the NFC East after finishing 5-11 last year. Robert Griffin III has exceeded his first year expectations, instantly becoming one of the most electric players the NFL has seen in ages. In his first year, he’s brought the Redskins to their 2011 win total, while encountering four loses by one score, including a heart breaking defeat to this very Giants team. After 12 games, “RG3” holds a 4:1 TD: INT ratio (16:4) and is completing 67% of his passes, good for 4th in the league. But RG3’s hype came from what he can do on the ground. Boasting a 4.41 40-yard dash time, this former track star was expected to make things happen scrambling out of the pocket. He’s done so by rushing for 642 yards (6.4 ypc) and 6 touchdowns, good for 21st in the NFL. Perspective: Ryan Mathews and Michael Turner have fewer rushing yards than RG3.

What’s at stake in this game? Despite sitting at 7-3, the Giants have tons to prove to their fans, league and most importantly themselves. Eli needs to come out and have another strong outing and David Wilson needs to step up in Andre Brown’s absence. A broken leg will sideline him for the rest of the regular season, but a return in the Super Bowl could be a possibility. Victor Cruz needs to get over his case of the drops, which he has had off and on this entire season, totaling 9 so far. The Redskins are still very much in the wild card hunt at 5-6 trailing Seattle by one game in the loss column, but will need a win against New York or Baltimore to keep the dream alive. The Skins’ play Cleveland and Philadelphia in weeks 15 and 16, which should be easy wins for a team that thinks they belong in the playoffs. This is a ‘make-or-break game,’ but FedEx Field hasn’t been a pleasant fixture for the Redskins winning just 5 of their last 20 home games.

Washington’s 31st ranked pass defense must show up and play their best against an elite wide receiver crops and capitalize on their chances to create turnovers – we know Eli will throw a couple their way. With Bradshaw’s counterpart out, the Giants will likely throw the ball more to account for Brown’s carries. Wilson has had fumbling issues his entire career so you can bet that Washington will be throwing fists at the ball each carry David gets. RG3 needs to be cognizant of the ferocious pass-rush he is about to endure and make things happen with his feet. Pierre Garcon’s health will be a key factor in boosting the Redskins passing game. As for the Giants, both Kenny Phillips and Jason Pierre-Paul will suit up.

TRENDS
~ Giants are an NFL-best 42-19 ATS on the road since 2006.
~ Redskins rank #3 in NFL at 6.2 yards per play on offense.
~ Under is 8-3 the last 11 meetings between the Giants and Redskins.

GIANTS vs REDSKINS MNF FREE PICK: Washington Redskins +3

Written By: @PayneInsider

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds
Point Spread: Nebraska -3.5, Wisconsin +3.5
Over/Under: 50.5

In a rematch from earlier this season the 10-2 Nebraska Cornhuskers, champions of the Legends Division, take on the 7-5 Wisconsin Badgers, champions by default of the Leaders Division. Nebraska hasn’t won a conference title since 1999 when the Huskers – coached by Frank Solich and quarterbacked by Eric Crouch, avenged a regular season defeat to Texas with a 22-6 win over the Longhorns in the Big 12 title game. For Wisconsin, they’re one win away from dubious history. A victory Saturday evening in the Big Ten championship game would make Wisconsin the first team ever to go to the Rose Bowl with five losses.

HOW NEBRASKA GOT HERE
Bottom line, Taylor Martinez’ immense improvements as a passer is the reason Nebraska has the opportunity to win the Big Ten Championship. He’s completing 63.3% of his passes – first time in his career he’s eclipse the 60% mark. It’s also the first time he’s thrown for over 20 touchdowns – both feats are the reason Martinez has a quarterback rating of 148.3! As a whole, Nebraska has been a favorite in 11 of 13 games this season – their biggest win came as a small dog on the road in East Lansing coming from ten down late in the fourth quarter. Taylor Martinez capped the improbable comeback with a five-yard touchdown pass with six seconds remaining.

HOW WISCONSIN GOT HERE
This year’s edition of Wisconsin football is a far cry from last year’s dream season with quarterback Russell Wilson. The drop-off at the quarterback position was massive from that of Wilson. They tried Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien to start the season, but his drastic inefficiencies lead to plan B with red-shirt freshman Joel Stave. Stave was the answer with his uncanny ability to perfect play action – leading the Badgers to massive chunks in the passing game. Unfortunately, Stave was lost in the second half of the Michigan State game. Since then, Curt Philips has stepped into the fold but appears nothing more than a game manager. Simply put, the Badgers moon-walked their way into this title game due to Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible. Looking at the Badgers’ resume isn’t very impressive, either. Each of their seven wins Vegas aligned them the favorite – Wisconsin hasn’t won as an underdog all season; maybe that changes this evening?

Aside from the obvious revenge/playing with house money angles for Wisconsin; the Cornhuskers’ will be without two key components with the losses of center Justin Jackson, and nose tackle Baker Steinkuhler. Few understand the importance of the center position, but in the betting world it’s the second most important position on the field behind quarterback.

TRENDS
~ Wisconsin is 8-0 in games played in Indiana under head coach Bret Bielema, winning those games by an average margin of 23.8 points.
~ Over is 39-16-1 in Wisconsin’s last 56 Big Ten games.

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP FREE PICK: Wisconsin Badgers +3.5