Written By: Aaron Marcotte, @MoreThanFantasy
Monday Night Football Odds: Giants vs. Redskins
Point Spread: New York -3, Washington +3
Over/Under: 50
Each and every year the NFC East is touted as one of the most talented and toughest divisions in the NFL – and each and every year at least one team disappoints. This year every team except 2011’s last place Redskins has disappointed in one way or another. Three of the four teams currently sit at or below .500, and the last place Eagles have been battling Rex Ryan’s Jets for biggest bust of the year. The Cowboys have underperformed yet again, managing only six wins with a plethora of talent on the roster. This leaves us with our week 13 match up: New York Giants vs. the Washington Redskins.
The Giants have had a roller coaster year thus far and who knows if the largest drop has come. To say they have disappointed is a reach, but their recent stretch of poor performances had fans and analysts concerned. Eli went through a dead-arm phase and lost sight of the end zone, failing to record a passing touchdown in three straight games, while tossing 4 interceptions. But isn’t that mid-season funk common place for the boys in blue? The last 58 games played in weeks 10 through 12; New York is just 16-42 against the spread, including 1-9 against the spread since 2009! But last week Eli showed his Manning heritage by throwing for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in a turnover free beat down of the Packers. Hakeem Nicks has proclaimed himself the healthiest he has been all year which only bodes well for the football Giants.
Washington has been a pleasant surprise in the NFC East after finishing 5-11 last year. Robert Griffin III has exceeded his first year expectations, instantly becoming one of the most electric players the NFL has seen in ages. In his first year, he’s brought the Redskins to their 2011 win total, while encountering four loses by one score, including a heart breaking defeat to this very Giants team. After 12 games, “RG3” holds a 4:1 TD: INT ratio (16:4) and is completing 67% of his passes, good for 4th in the league. But RG3’s hype came from what he can do on the ground. Boasting a 4.41 40-yard dash time, this former track star was expected to make things happen scrambling out of the pocket. He’s done so by rushing for 642 yards (6.4 ypc) and 6 touchdowns, good for 21st in the NFL. Perspective: Ryan Mathews and Michael Turner have fewer rushing yards than RG3.
What’s at stake in this game? Despite sitting at 7-3, the Giants have tons to prove to their fans, league and most importantly themselves. Eli needs to come out and have another strong outing and David Wilson needs to step up in Andre Brown’s absence. A broken leg will sideline him for the rest of the regular season, but a return in the Super Bowl could be a possibility. Victor Cruz needs to get over his case of the drops, which he has had off and on this entire season, totaling 9 so far. The Redskins are still very much in the wild card hunt at 5-6 trailing Seattle by one game in the loss column, but will need a win against New York or Baltimore to keep the dream alive. The Skins’ play Cleveland and Philadelphia in weeks 15 and 16, which should be easy wins for a team that thinks they belong in the playoffs. This is a ‘make-or-break game,’ but FedEx Field hasn’t been a pleasant fixture for the Redskins winning just 5 of their last 20 home games.
Washington’s 31st ranked pass defense must show up and play their best against an elite wide receiver crops and capitalize on their chances to create turnovers – we know Eli will throw a couple their way. With Bradshaw’s counterpart out, the Giants will likely throw the ball more to account for Brown’s carries. Wilson has had fumbling issues his entire career so you can bet that Washington will be throwing fists at the ball each carry David gets. RG3 needs to be cognizant of the ferocious pass-rush he is about to endure and make things happen with his feet. Pierre Garcon’s health will be a key factor in boosting the Redskins passing game. As for the Giants, both Kenny Phillips and Jason Pierre-Paul will suit up.
TRENDS
~ Giants are an NFL-best 42-19 ATS on the road since 2006.
~ Redskins rank #3 in NFL at 6.2 yards per play on offense.
~ Under is 8-3 the last 11 meetings between the Giants and Redskins.
GIANTS vs REDSKINS MNF FREE PICK: Washington Redskins +3