Archives 2013

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Opening weekend in the NFL is unlike anything else – excitement and hope is in the air and sitting down to watch the nationally televised game is a trend most fans follow regardless of whether or not their team is involved. Week 1 featured four primetime affairs, starting with Baltimore and Denver Thursday night. Three games followed, all of which blew through bookmaker projections. All four Week 1 primetime games went over the number and did so by an average of 17-points per game. It got me thinking about this specific betting spot in terms of what value primetime games hold given the current state of the NFL.

Just this past Sunday, another marquee NFL matchup, although non-qualifying in terms of being a ‘primetime spot’, saw Denver and Dallas duel to a 51-48 final. This game proved to be just another reminder of the direction in which this league is heading.

That said, the tendency for higher scoring games amongst certain teams is not going unnoticed in Las Vegas. This past week, the Broncos’ total closed as high as 58-points at the Mirage, while last week’s Denver-Philadelphia matchup sported a total as high as 59! This week, four match-ups have totals in the 50’s – an unthinkable proposition just a few short seasons ago. Betting UNDER in games aligned in the 50’s was something the sharpest groups virtually did blind – not anymore. Adapt or die.

When talking totals and primetime games in particular, they offer incredible opportunities for gamblers in general. By the time Thursday night rolls around each week, people everywhere are salivating for action. Each Sunday, after the early games conclude both winners and losers flock to sports books and computers alike in hopes of doubling-up or chasing to get even. Because of that, primetime games offer a market unlike any other. Nowhere else throughout a weekend slate can you find such an event that features game theory and complete market economics in their utmost form. People work off incentives, and if you have a feel for what has transpired during the day, you can often transition that into opportunity.

Looking at primetime games in more detail; opening weekend was so eye-opening because it initially confirmed the tendency for games to sail over. That trend came on strong towards the end of last year and seemed to continue. The fact that the league seems to make an attempt to put its best quarterbacks in the national spotlight, knows these games will be their most viewed, knows the casual fan likes points, potentially instructs officials to call more “offensive-friendly” penalties (pass interference, defensive holding, roughing the passer etc.) lends credence to the notion, but it’s been proven inconclusive thus far.

For arguments sake, we looked at totals for the previous two seasons (as well as 2013) and broke down the data. While this is a very small sample size, it focuses on when the totals market completely shifted. For something like this, gauging totals from 1990 would be completely irrelevant and would skew data.

Season to date, the over is 11-6 (64.7%) in marquee games (7-6 since its opening weekend start of 4-0). During 2012, the over in primetime games finished at 19-28-2 (40.4%), while in 2011 it went 21-20-1 (51.2%). Remember, 52.38% is the break even point on bets placed at -110 vig.

That 2012 statistic is alarmingly telling because it was taken from the year in which it seemed like a plethora of totals went over. That clearly wasn’t the case. More to the point, certain teams specifically seemed to really adhere to that trend (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and New Orleans to name a few) as opposed to the league in general.

Considering the league has made a more widespread attempt to get variety in these primetime spots (Buffalo at Cleveland), it also makes sense that a lot of these games will go under. Jeff Tuel and Brandon Weeden deserve their T.V. time too, I guess.

That said, the data seemed to illustrate these betting markets were not only unique, but also extremely profitable if played the correct way. While there’s some truth to the “marquee quarterback” theory for primetime games, there were also some interesting trends relating to other factors.

Aaron Rodgers is as good a signal caller as there is in this league. As a result, he was thrust into the spotlight five times in 2012. The over in those games: 1-4, with the lone over-victory coming against a weak Texans defense that was still figuring out how to play in the wake of the Brian Cushing injury. Rodgers played division-rival Chicago in Week 2 on a Thursday night; that game went under primarily due to Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offensive line proving completely inept at dealing with Green Bay’s pass rush. Rodgers was also part of the Monday night 14-12 “loss” in Seattle that featured an infamous touchdown call by replacement officials as time expired. The Pack’s Week 12 matchup in New York went under thanks to Green Bay only mustering 10-points as a result of a myriad of serious injuries that limited their offense. They also saw their Sunday night affair at home against Detroit two weeks later fall short by a point in a game that featured heavy snow.

In each situation, factors outside of just the quarterback and their team’s offensive regularities came into play in a huge way. Generally speaking, divisional matchups went under at slightly less than 2-1, a reminder that rivalries tend to bring about tight play and extreme familiarity lending itself to lower scoring.

Moreover, the timing of matchups was also an important consideration. Philadelphia went well over the total in their opener with Washington back in week one, but followed that up with a home bout against Kansas City in week three which saw them play their third game in 11 days (prime under spot).

What does all of this mean? Well, we must continue monitoring, but the notion of primetime OVERS presenting quality betting opportunities has since been thrown out the window after going 48.6% over a 107-game sample size that focuses strictly on the current totals market. That said, each game is its own entity and possess its own set of factors to be considered.

Clearly, the NFL enjoys trotting its biggest names and games out on center stage. That might mean Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning, but in the end, it’s all relative. Sports betting is a market, and whether games are aligned in the 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, and yes, even the 60’s now…at some point the leg-work must be done. Circumstances and factors unbeknownst initially must be dissected for long-term profitability. Just remember, those primetime games will offer value, especially when the betting market is at its most voluminous point.

Written By: Payne Insider

The 2013-2014 NBA season is set to tip Tuesday, October 29th and with that, NBA Win Totals are now available for betting! The Las Vegas SuperBook released their win totals earlier today and the defending champion Miami Heat lead the pack at 60 wins. On the opposite end of the spectrum the Philadelphia 76ers are the lowest team on the totem pole with 16.5. The Knicks’ open at 49.5 wins and the Lakers’ at 33.5 wins.

Here’s the complete list of 2013-2014 NBA Win Totals:

ATLANTA HAWKS 40.0
BOSTON CELTICS 27.5
BROOKLYN NETS 52.5
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 27.5
CHICAGO BULLS 56.5
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 40.5
DALLAS MAVERICKS 44.0
DENVER NUGGETS 47.0
DETROIT PISTONS 41.0
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 49.5
HOUSTON ROCKETS 54.5
INDIANA PACERS 53.5
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 57.0
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 33.5
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 49.0
MIAMI HEAT 60.0
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 28.5
MINNESOTA T-WOLVES 41.0
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 40.0
NEW YORK KNICKS 49.5
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 50.5
ORLANDO MAGIC 24.5
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 16.5
PHOENIX SUNS 21.5
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 38.5
SACRAMENTO KINGS 31.5
SAN ANTONIO SPURS 55.5
TORONTO RAPTORS 36.5
UTAH JAZZ 27.5
WASHINGTON WIZARDS 42.0

NOTE: TEAMS MUST PLAY 82 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION

Written By: Todd Fuhrman – Former Oddsmaker
Thoughts From: Payne Insider – Professional Sports Bettor

“Always ignore the boos, they usually come from the cheap seats.”

Pros vs Joes isn’t meant to piss you off…but it can’t guarantee you go undefeated either. It’s not meant to tell you that your bets are dead before the game is played just because they’re “square” or “public” (only Cubs futures fall into this subset). Rather Pros vs Joes weekly tweets are meant to inform like every other piece of content you read on social media. They’re a glimpse into the wallet of the professional to know how he or she has approached the betting card for the weekend by beating the market and taking a position on a game. The misconception that you have to bet dogs to be sharp or avoid road favorites to think like a professional is nearly as antiquated as the original iPhone. Tweets aren’t meant to say fading the public is the only sure fire way to win betting the NFL; although, it’s never a bad idea to be on the other side of the masses when there’s huge volume on a game.

No, Pros vs Joes is a tool you can use to aid your handicapping when that last game on a card may or may not make the cut. To all those out there (and they’re only a handful) that choose to troll and root against sides “just because,” your ignorance shows through unless you’re in possession of a ticket on the other side. Always remember blogs and twitter give you the option to read and follow whoever you’d like…don’t read content from anyone if all it does is get your blood boiling early Sunday mornings.

Pros vs Joes aren’t even the games you bet, but rather the numbers you take. Pros can move on a side +1, but what makes someone a Joe is if they bet that same game -3. It’s not a knock, but it can be the difference between winning and losing which is why turning a profit from this pursuit is always challenging.

Payne’s Thoughts…

Former Vegas oddsmaker, Todd Fuhrman touched many key components to the “Sharps” vs “Squares,” or in this case; “Pros” vs “Joes” battle that takes place daily. It’s always important to remember WHERE and WHY backlash rears its ugly head. Typically, it stems from jealousy and agendas, or just a fan with a bad tattoo of his favorite teams’ mascot. How dare you insinuate someones favorite team might not fair well come Sunday! Johnny and the boys are coming over and I’m making my good luck bean dip – no way our Cowboys lose!

The difference between the bettor forced to punch a time clock come Monday, and a professional bettor can be as little as 3% at year’s end. Just because the loud, drunk at the bar wearing his Ricky Waters jersey that’s now two-sizes too small defied the odds of a one-game-sample-size cashing his Seahawks -1.5 bet this weekend, doesn’t mean he’s going to be successful long-term opposing the Pros. In fact, if he did it enough times over a long enough sample size he’ll be cozied up under his local bridge.

At the same time, the idea of Pros and Joes clashing on EVERY single game is just inaccurate. It’s a bookmakers nightmare when it happens, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games daily. Last night, the Pros laid 5 and 5.5 with the Saints’ early in the week. Joes continued down that path with reckless abandon laying 7 thirty minutes before kickoff. Just because you happen to be on the same side as the Pros doesn’t make you sharp, you will never win more games laying 7 than you will 5.5, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games frequently. Over the course of 365-days that 1.5-points of lost edge could be the difference between a bettor hitting 51.5% and 54.5%. Punching a time clock or being a profitable bettor.

In the end, the information provided is to help YOU, the bettor. It’s also up to YOU, the bettor to distinguish the difference between information and information WITH VALUE. Being cognizant of the difference is pertinent to deciphering winning information from losing. Take a step back, open your mind, and realize that the sharpest bettors money doesn’t have a team logo. They’re buying teams (betting on) one week and selling (betting against) the next. The sharpest bettors have no bias, they’re only goal is to see their bottom line increase.

Written By: Richard Salvatori

With the season kicking off in days we’ll address injuries, roster turnover, coaching changes, all while determining which teams present the best PLAY and FADE spots to bet during the infant stages of the 2013-2014 NFL season. Schedule analysis is pertinent to any such inquiry, and a sound understanding of perception as it relates to various teams will also prove handy. If you haven’t printed off a season schedule identifying spots for each team, each week, you’re behind. Take a deep breath, don’t sweat it, we have you covered for the first quarter of the season.


Week 1:

Opening weekend of football season is incredibly interesting for a few reasons: Media figureheads think they have teams figured out, but there’s always a team or three that shock early and disappoint even more as the season progresses. Last season, it was the Arizona Cardinals that got off to a scorching start winning their first four games including; wins over the Seahawks’ and Patriots. Arizona proceeded to lose nine in a row, and eleven of their final twelve.

Additionally, spreads provided by sports books can be inefficient early in the season, but oddsmakers are keeping numbers reasonably tight week one. Thursday’s season opener between Denver and Baltimore represented the largest number on the board (+/- 8) before news broke that Jeff Tuel could potentially start under center versus New England.

The Cardinals’ have become one of the most talked about teams this off-season given the changes made and how the Over/Under has significantly increased on their expected win total. Arizona’s win total opened 5, it currently resides at 5.5 with the OVER juiced at -160. Whether it’s Bruce Arians’ emotion that revitalizes Arizona’s franchise, or the fact that blindly betting teams OVER their posted win total when aligned at 6 or less would’ve resulted in bettors cashing 67% of the time since 2000 – and more impressively, 79% the last three season seem to be the reason for increased optimism.

The Rams’ were a team in 2012 that far exceeded bookmaker expectations beating the spread in five of their first six outings and proved that a capable defense and balanced offense with a new regime pays dividends. If you’re sharp, St. Louis’ early success a season ago shouldn’t have been shocking: teams coming off a season below 30% against the spread, are 55.2% against the spread the first six weeks of the following season – the Rams’ were just 3-12-1 ATS in 2011.

St. Louis’ makeover has focused on upgrading the offensive-line in addition to adding weapons at receiver. Despite being on the backend of his career, the loss of Steven Jackson could be tough to make up for. Arizona has questions on defense (replacing Adrian Wilson and dealing with the loss of Darryl Washington the first four games). Still, the line seemed inflated at +6. It’s since dropped to +5 where it currently resides at the LVH Super Book. Despite the injury to Jonathan Cooper, +5 still has value, but taking it certainly means your edge has decreased slightly.

Week Two:

Indianapolis gets the Dolphins’ at home in week two and as it stands now; the Colts’ are a short favorite. Miami will come off a week one dog-fight in Cleveland, while Indy has a layup against the dysfunctional organization that is the Oakland Raiders. It might not be smooth sailing for Andrew Luck in his second year given the Colts’ massive defensive issues, but this game is ideal for his Colts.

Indianapolis threw the ball all over Miami in week nine last season. Luck finished with 433 yards, and it launched the Dolphins’ into a tailspin losing four out of their next five, effectively, eliminating them from playoff contention. The Colts’ were 4th in the NFL a season ago in yards per possession, Miami checked in at 19. Luck and Co. dominated time of possession, and if Miami becomes more pass happy in 2013 like they’ve discussed, this game could result in a similar outcome. Where this game will be decided is in the red-zone, the Dolphins’ ranked #1 in the NFL allowing teams to score touchdowns just 42.59% of the time inside the 20. On the other side, the Colt’s were in the bottom third of the NFL converting for touchdowns when Luck and his offense crept into the red-zone.

No question Miami has upgraded their pass rush and secondary, but is it enough? Most prognosticators expect regression from Indy and progression from Miami this season, but Andrew Luck and his Colts have earned the right to be a full three point favorite at Lucas Oil Stadium against a team like Miami – strictly a value play here.

Week Three:

Cleveland has the makings of a team that could improve greatly with just average play under center in 2013. Yes, the AFC North poses challenges, but that doesn’t mean improvement isn’t realistic for the Browns’.

Their trip to Minnesota in week three seems to be inflated, specifically, after back-to-back road division games. I know it’s a home-opener for the Vikings’, but 6.5-point underdogs versus a team sharp bettors have been selling all off-season is extreme. Obviously, I would encourage buying onto the key number of +7.

Cleveland’s defense is interesting, specially, with the off-season upgrades. Barring anything extreme, Joe Haden will be around for all 16 games. How great is Haden’s impact? The Browns’ surrendered 414.8 yards per game without Haden in the lineup, just 341.5 when he was suited up. Just how significant is that differential? At 414.8 yards per game that would’ve ranked Cleveland 31st in the NFL in 2013, at 341.5 yards per game, they would’ve ranked 12th.

Brandon Weeden is responsible for the aforementioned needed improvement under center if Cleveland wants to take off. Minnesota could assist him, as they ranked 23rd against the pass in 2012. The advancement of Harrison Smith and the acquisition of Xavier Rhodes should improve this maligned secondary for the Vikings’, but it could take some time.

Regardless, anything exceeding six for this game feels high. Barring injuries the first two weeks, my TRUE NUMBER on this game is 4.25, having the ability to buy to the second largest key number of 7 would be a +EV investment in my mind.

Week Four:

The Dallas Cowboys open the season hosting their rival, New York Giants under the lights on Sunday Night football (currently a 3-point favorite) before traveling to Kansas City in week two and getting the Rams at home in week three.

How Dallas comes out of that three game stretch (favored in all three) is a mystery, but if the point spread is any indicator the trip to San Diego week four could be treated as a vacation before a home date with Peyton Manning’s Broncos and back-to-back division games versus the Redskins’ and Eagles.

The following serves to summarize Dallas’ recent trips to the west coast during the early months of the season:

9/16/2012: Seattle 27, Dallas 7
9/18/2011: Dallas 27, San Francisco 24
10/4/2009: Denver 17, Dallas 10

Not much to take away, but I’m higher than most on the Chargers’. I think they’ll be a team that reinvents themselves with Mike McCoy – starting strong has been stressed and will be important for a team that struggled early under the Norv Turner regime.

A year ago, Atlanta dominated the Chargers in San Diego during an early September visit. The Chargers entered that game 2-0 and were three point favorites. I’m higher on San Diego as I alluded to, and Dallas isn’t close to Atlanta in our power ratings. The look-ahead line is San Diego -1 for this week four contest, and at that price you have to strongly consider an investment.

Written By: PayneInsider
Assist From: JustinZovas
Hockey Assist From: So_Money_Sports

The NFL preseason is in full swing. Anticipation for Thursday, September 5th is palpable. But with that comes a bevy of talking-heads and typically, those talking-heads spew drivel. Being able to decipher information, from information WITH VALUE can be a daunting task this time of year. An endless amount of sports betting trends will invade your Twitter timeline. Airwaves will be polluted Friday’s with handicappers revealing “information” like: the Giants’ are 7-1 ATS their last 8 Sunday night games when the temperature is below 71 degrees AND THERE’S A FULL MOON! For whatever reason, and it’s extremely sickening, that kind of information ‘moves the dial’. Reality is; that tidbit is worth less than the pocket lint you just found in your favorite pair of cargo shorts.


Finding trends that are real, trends you can touch, trends you can feel are the kind of trends that have predictive value. One situation I discuss every NFL preseason has the aforementioned elements: Teams that played in the Hall of Fame game are 34-16-3 (68%) ATS their 2nd preseason game versus a team making its preseason debut. The team with a preseason game under its belt has worked more kinks out, acclimated themselves to in-game situations, has a better idea of position battles, and most of all, teams tend to play starters longer in game two than game one.

That said; all betting trends should be used as a starting point, and not the sole reason for investing. Moreover, the preseason situation mentioned above will reach a point where there’s no longer value. Books will catch on, and not only adjust their numbers for that situation, but likely over-adjust to where value teeters to the opposing side. Situational bettors tend to be like bulls; head down, charging forward, and with little to no regard. They blow through dead end signs and fail to realize that at some point they’re investing in over-adjusted situations.

Each summer I attempt to uncover a few NFL trends for specific situations that hopefully encompass the aforementioned predictive value. Unfortunately, a situation I wholeheartedly felt data would support fell extremely short. The ATS trend for this specific situation in question is: Teams off of a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent. You can feel this trend, you can touch this trend, it’s real.

I expected to find a “letdown spot” bettors could fade for the team off a division win, on the road, and a “play on spot” bettors could invest in for the non-conference home team. After all, Team A faced a division rival in a hotly contested game. Practice was more intense than usual that week. Team A won a physical division game. Human nature takes place and Team A feels good about themselves, complacency sets in after a big win (fat and happy). Team A looks at the schedule for the following week and it’s on the road versus a non-conference opponent. Energy at practice for Team A isn’t anywhere close to the previous week when preparing to face their divisional rival – focus is immensely lacking.

Well…

Since 1989, teams off a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent are 166-152-15 (52.2%). This was absolutely shocking. Obviously, 52.38% is your break even point at -110, so this isn’t profitable, but it was mind-blowing to see that much success in a perceived “let down situation”. I fully expected this to be a profitable “fade situation,” but in the last 23 seasons, it would have yielded a 47.8% win rate.

It’s great to classify certain situations and spots, but they must be backed up with cold, hard facts. I hear all too often about fading teams in this specific situation, and it simply doesn’t hold water. Like any trend, even if it yields a profitable betting situation, it should only be the starting point for deeper analysis.

Written By: Billy Attridge

With the NFL season about to kick off, many recreational gamblers are scurrying to gather as much information and data on all 32 teams as possible. Despite being late to the party, there is still an effective way to evaluate a team’s performance from the previous year using rudimentary mathematics. When analyzing a team’s expected win percentage or games won, the Pythagorean Theorem can be a hidden gem if utilized correctly. At the conclusion of every NFL season, this simple mathematical formula can propel a sports bettor in the right direction when determining a team’s actual performance compared to what was observed on television throughout the year.

Using a team’s Points For and Points Against; we can come up with an expected win total. (PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2)) gives us a sound number of wins expected per game. For example, the Atlanta Falcons scored 419 points and allowed 299 during the 2012-2013 season. Plugging the numbers into the above equation, we see Atlanta averaged 0.66259 wins every 1 game played. Multiplying that by 16 gives us an expected win total for the regular season. Atlanta, based on those stats, ought to have won approximately 10.6 games last year. We can make this number even stronger by analyzing a team’s Turnover Margin.

Joe Fortenbaugh, of the National Football Post, put together some excellent charts detailing NFL success both Straight Up and Against The Spread from 2002-2011 based on Turnover Differential. Adhering to the premise that 80 percent of turnovers are random, teams that have poor Turnover Margins generally improve, and vice versa. Using 3.2 as a value for a single turnover, multiplying it by a team’s Turnover Margin gives us the number of points generated by Turnovers. So, using Atlanta (+13 TO) as our example, we see they benefited from 41.6 “Turnover” points. Subtracting this from our ‘PF’, our new equation shows that Atlanta should have won approximately 9.83 games in 2012 – that’s low compared to the 13 regular season wins obtained. One other team that has caught the interest of sports bettors in the past month has been the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ suffered from an abysmal -24 Turnover Differential (only recovered 33% of Fumbles!), and based on our formula, played like a five win football club (5.03). They won 2 games, and in only one contest last year did they have a positive Turnover Margin.

How can this information help us in the future? While sharps have sucked virtually all the value out of Season Win Totals at this point, the NFL provides a unique opportunity due to the influx of public money in the marketplace. While Kansas City has the attention of wiseguys and the public, there may be opportunities to fade Atlanta early in the season. After all, the Falcons’ had six games with a Turnover Margin of +3 or greater, the most in the NFL. They recovered over 64% of Fumbles last year, second highest in the league. With the NFC South looking extremely competitive this year, a regression for Atlanta would not be shocking.

It must be noted that the above formulas are a great starting point for handicapping, but it’s just a small piece of the puzzle. Sports bettors must be cognizant of injuries, coaching change, style adjustments and strength of schedule when focusing on win totals. Incorporating different types of analysis is vital to succeed in the sports betting industry.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Sports betting success relies greatly on beating the closing number. The goal for any type of marketplace investor, gamblers included, should be entering the market at the optimal time. Getting the best price is one of the most indicative signs of a successful, long-term, profitable investor or sports bettor.


One of the main ingredients to “beating the close” is preparation. Having your own set of point spreads created before the market opens is essential. Your pre-made lines should not only include power ratings but situations, scheduling spots, trends with value and any other information acquired from coaches and players that may affect a team’s performance. If a sports bettor fails to have confidence in his or her preparation, how can one expect to enter the market with a long-term edge? It’s unrealistic to beat the closing line every bet, but your goal should be 70-80% of the time your money enters the market, you’re getting the best of it. Whether it’s a drastic 1.5-point move in a college basketball game, laying -3 (-105) in a football game that closes -3 (-130), or .10 cents in a baseball game, you must get the best of it to stand a chance long-term.

An excellent example of conviction, or lack thereof, was this past March where public darling, #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast challenged their in-state foe, #3 Florida Gators. Florida Gulf Coast shocked the World beating both Georgetown and San Diego State – recreational bettors were lining up to back the Eagles’. Sharp bettors with accurate power numbers created before the NCAA Tournament likely made Florida a 16-17 point favorite. The opening number that hit the board was Florida -11. The prepared, confident, savvy, well-equipped sports investor jumped all over Florida -11 and -11.5. Hesitant sports bettors lacking confidence wait for their opinions to be confirmed by the market, and in this instance, grabbed Florida -12, -12.5, and -13. It’s ok to gauge the market wrong 20-30% of the time, but if you’re waiting for the market to confirm your opinion (chasing steam) you have absolutely no chance. The line closed Florida -13. The final score was Florida 62-50. Those that fired Florida -11 with conviction at open, WON. Those that waited until the market confirmed their position and felt comfortable entering the market and grabbed -12.5 or -13, LOST.

Bettors lose their edge with every penny they surrender by entering the market at wrong times – market reading is crucial. Fully understanding the edge on a specific game and deciding how the market will react to the posted number is imperative. The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills Week 1 in the upcoming season. Betonline opened New England 5-point road favorites. Your handicap sets the number at New England -3.5. Let’s play Buffalo +5, right? Wrong. Despite recent events, New England consistently receives the majority of public bets. Buffalo is viewed as a doormat. Five (+5/-5) is a “dead number” in the NFL and the worst case scenario is; it goes to 4.5. In which case, you take +4.5 with little to no value lost. The line currently sits at 7 across the board, a far more advantageous price for Buffalo bettors.

Confidence in your preparation and handicapping is the long-term difference between professional bettors and those forced to make sports betting a hobby. Have conviction in what you do and don’t hesitate to fire!

Struggling NBA franchises will have their fate decided by ping pong balls at 8:30 p.m. ET this evening from the Millennium Hotel in Times Square. Teams will learn where they’ll be picking in the 2013 NBA Draft moments before solid franchises tip for game 2 of the Western Conference finals.

The NBA Lottery hasn’t been won by the team with the worst record (most ping pong balls/best chance) since 2004, when the Magic’ used the number one pick to select Dwight Howard. That same Orlando franchise has the best odds (25% chance) to earn the top pick in this years NBA Draft.

Mathematical odds of the 14-non-playoff teams to win the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery:

Scandal at The Mothership! ESPN aired yesterday’s edition of First Take, and boy, was there some controversy. No, Skip and Stephen weren’t arguing about worldly matters like Tim Tebow performing circumcisions in his spare time.

Like most Americans, I was watching but not really paying attention, and then . . . what sounded like, no, it couldn’t be. YES! The fart heard ’round the world!

At the :20 second mark, one of three suspects; Stephen A. Smith, Cari Champion or Skip Bayless decided to play the anal acoustics. Pass gas. Let one rip. Cut the cheese. Bottom burp. Airbrush their undershorts.

Where Fart Gate takes place is when the segment re-aired later in the day, there was no combustion of epic proportion. Where there was once a fart, there is no more fart. Thus in lies, First Take FART GATE!

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The NFL Draft combined with regime changes allow for prognosticators and pundits alike to get a true sense of how the league is reshaping. There’s still much to do with free agents roaming the market, rookie camp, OTA’s etc., but it isn’t too early to get an idea of how oddsmakers and the gambling community view squads right now.

Using Atlantis Casino 2013 Win Totals this is a group of teams that has the potential to make you money simply based on their current perception relative to win projection.


Jacksonville Jaguars Projected Win Total: Over 4.5 (-140)

The Jaguars’ were abysmal in 2012, ranking near the cellar in virtually every statistical category. Jacksonville will come into the 2013 season with low expectations, but there’s a lot to consider regarding their off-season – many positives.

For starters, the Jaguars have new ownership, which should typically be viewed as a positive development. Gus Bradley was brought in to coach this group, an exciting change considering his past work in reviving the Seattle Seahawks defensive unit in recent years.

Bradley is a fierce competitor, and he made a clear cut effort to find individuals in this year’s draft who seem to share such traits with him. Even current roster members have commented how different (for the better) things have been.

Luke Joekel might be the best player in this class; he fortifies an offensive line that struggled a season ago. Jonathan Cyprien is more than just a safety from a small school; he’s a well built and instinctive player who flies to the ball. The Jaguars’ decision to grab him in the early second reminded me of the Detroit Lions taking Louis Delmas in a similar spot back in 2010.

Jacksonville didn’t stop there; they picked up a pair of speedy playmakers in Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson, both of whom should provide depth at wide-out behind Justin Blackmon. Joshua Evans is also a safety who could see action in some capacity for this secondary.

This roster should be deeper under Gus Bradley, and considering where he is coming from, I’d expect a more run-heavy scheme on offense. Maurice Jones Drew played just six games a season ago; getting back 47.7% of their total offensive production is a great start.

This will be a make-or-break year for Blaine Gabbert, but many suggest he simply needs more time in the pocket. Gabbert ranked in the top third of NFL quarterbacks when given 2.6 seconds or more to throw. Over 58% of Gabbert’s throws came at or under 2.5 seconds to throw. Eugene Monroe is one of the leagues best, the aforementioned addition of Joekel, and second-year man Mike Brewster who was thrown into the fire as an undrafted rookie should help give Blaine time so the front office can assess what they have under center.

When breaking down the schedule landscape you have to consider their division. It’s fair to think the Colts’ with their -30 point differential in 2012-2013 will regress, and there’s very limited expectations regarding Tennessee. This Jaguars team hung tough with Houston in their second matchup last year, it’s not crazy to think they could grab three divisional games.

The non-divisional games include the Chiefs’, Cardinals and Bills at home, with road dates against the likes of Oakland and Cleveland. Getting to six or even seven wins wouldn’t be shocking. If you believe Jacksonville can alter its identity successfully in season one of the Bradley era, they’re worth a look. When you factor in that blindly betting overs with teams aligned at 6 wins or less has produced a 34-16-1 (.680) record since 2002, it makes betting the Jaguars’ OVER 4.5 wins all the more appealing.

San Diego Chargers Projected Win Total: Over 7 (+100)

Speaking of coaching/G.M. changes, the Bolts’ underwent a much needed transformation this off-season, and it can only elevate their chances of success when you rid yourself of a guy like Norv Turner.

San Diego’s offense was horrific last season. Their ground game and offensive line play lacked any explosiveness and Philip Rivers simply didn’t have weapons around him to gain consistent yardage. Antonio Gates is a step slower, yet still productive. The unveiling of Danario Alexander at midseason was helpful, yet short lived. Keenan Allen is a supreme talent who saw character questions and injury concerns slot him two-rounds later than he should’ve been selected. D.J. Fluker is a monster of a tackle and he should be able to provide Rivers tremendous support immediately having been under the tutelage of Nick Saban for four years.

Defense was strong last season for San Diego, but losing Takeo Spikes is a blow. Manti T’eo is a first round talent who landed in the second round. He presents good value and should start immediately.

However, the Chargers are tough to handicap because their schedule could be daunting as they draw the AFC South and NFC East. Still, they are being projected as likely landing around 6.5 or 7 wins. They should be the second best team in their division (the Chiefs’ will push them), that alone could be good enough for 7 or 8 wins, and because of that I think an even 7 presents value. The Chargers’ haven’t won less than 7 games since 2003, and I don’t see this season being any different.

Pittsburgh Steelers Projected Wins Total: Under 10 (+100)

The Steelers’ enter 2013 as a curious case. On one hand, their recent struggles and lack of efficiency at the end of games in 2012 make you think they’ll surely turn it around given the consistency of the franchise. Add in the fact that they had what is being seen as a great draft and they should be back, right?

The good news is their schedule opens as follows: vs. TEN, @CIN, vs. CHI, @MIN, BYE, @NYJ. However, Pittsburgh has road dates later in the year with New England, Baltimore, Green Bay, and they travel to Oakland, a place where they’ve struggled recently.

This team has a myriad of concerns, with age being at the forefront. Their front seven should likely hold up fine, especially with the addition of Jarvis Jones to play outside in the 3-4, but their inability to address secondary needs is catching up with them in a league that is becoming more pass-heavy by the minute.

Offensively, their tackle situation is a concern. Marcus Gilbert leaves a lot to be desired and while Mike Adams is gifted in the run game, he struggle mightily against above average pass rushers when forced to play on the left side.

This team may very well eclipse the 10-win mark, but the metrics used cap their total at 9. We’ve grown accustomed to this franchise always being in the mix, and an improved run game behind the addition of LeVeon Bell combined with a more balanced attack overall could certainly help that cause. However, I see too many issues with their secondary, offensive line and an over-dependency on Ben Roethlisberger to carry Steeler Nation. Pittsburgh might have a bounce-back season, but all signs point to this number being inflated due to decades of pristine perception.