Written By: Billy Attridge @WATT_05
2013 ACC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro North Carolina
Date: March 14-17
For the past 15 years, the two most well known schools in the conference, Duke and North Carolina, have routinely dominated the ACC. Since 1997, Duke and North Carolina have had a share of the regular season title and ACC tournament title 14 times! Miami wrapped up the regular season title for the first time in school history, so one might ponder whether the tournament title is in their hands as well. Since 1997 the regular season champion has only won the tournament 7 times, less than 50% in that 15 year time span. Let’s take a look at the top four seeds this year, which lower seeded teams have the pedigree to pull an upset or two, and the best bet for the tournament.
#1 Seed- Miami (FL) (+305):
Miami’s success is due to their star Sophomore PG Shane Larkin, and their ability to play at various paces depending on the opponent. 6’11 Senior F Kenny Kadji has been impressive as well, averaging nearly 14 points and 7 boards a game, thanks to his ability to hit the 3 and pull bigger defenders away from the block. Jim Larranaga is a possible COY candidate, and has the smarts to guide this team to its first ACC championship in school history. Miami has one of the most experienced squads in the country in terms of age and games played. There are concerns as of late with this bunch. They have dropped 3 of their last 6 in the ACC, including a stunner at home to a feisty Georgia Tech squad. They only go about 7 deep, so depth COULD be a concern playing 3 games in 3 days in Greensboro. Also to note they are 0-2 on neutral sites this year, and have only beaten one team by 10 or more away from home in the conference (GT, 1st ACC game). This core group of players has only once made it to the ACC semi-finals.
#2 Seed- Duke (+110):
Duke has very solid guard play, starting with Sophomore Quinn Cook. Cook has a 2.17 A/T ratio, and has the ability to control tempo efficiently. Senior Seth Curry and Freshman Rasheed Suliamon are explosive scorers, and Junior Tyler Thornton is a pest on D. Senior Ryan Kelly back on this team makes them an immediate championship contender, as he is the MVP (Most Valuable Player) on ANY team this year. His ability to hit 3’s at 6’11 gives Duke so many options on the offensive side, opening the floor for the guards to penetrate and clearing the lane for Senior Mason Plumlee to go to work. Duke is undefeated with him, beating Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State, Miami and a rising UNC team on the road. With Ryan Kelly back in the lineup, Duke is the best team in this conference. Without Kelly, they floundered on the road, losing 4 games and squeaking 2 wins out vs. Wake Forest and B.C.
#3 Seed- North Carolina (+500):
Roy Williams has his club playing their best basketball of the year, and the team chemistry has been building throughout the season. UNC has covered 5 of their last 6, and despite the poor showing vs. Duke, has been the hottest team in the conference. UNC is able to move the ball fluidly on offense, and has racked up a 1.38 A/T ratio, mostly due to 5 out of their top 6 having a positive A/T ratio. Williams has been able to exploit mismatches by utilizing a smaller lineup to spread the floor for open 3-point looks and driving lanes for Sophomore stud P.J. Hairston. Hairston is hitting 38% from downtown, and Juniors Leslie McDonald (37%) and Reggie Bullock (44%) have been on fire as well. What I really like about UNC as of late is their ability to win on the road in hostile environments. Going into GT (W by 12), Virginia (W by 12), and Maryland (W by 11) shows the progressive strides this club has taken since the beginning of the year. The one concern I have with the new lineup is the lack of size on the defensive end. Athletic big men like Miami and Duke both have will cause trouble for UNC in the paint.
#4 Seed- Virginia (+1000):
Tony Bennett has arguably the best defensive team in the conference, with an ACC POY candidate in Joe Harris. The smooth 6’6 small forward can hit the 3 (44%), and is physical enough to create off the dribble and score in the paint. Virginia’s strength is a slow-tempo, grind it out, defensive game. Only allowing 54.4 ppg and 5.2 3-point FG a game makes them a definite threat to win the tournament. That being said, I’m not crazy about the guard play on the offensive side of the ball, and feel that many times the offense passes up quality shots and depends too much on Harris. If teams can shut down Harris, it usually means trouble for Virginia.
Contenders and Sleepers:
#5 seed North Carolina State (+900):
One of the most inconsistent teams all year, proving that with their regular season ending loss at FSU. They like to push the pace, and have the guards to do so with Lorenzo Brown and C.J. Leslie. Senior F Richard Howell is a man on the boards, and Senior Scott Wood has been lethal from downtown (42.3%). Their inability to close away from home has left them with a 3-6 ACC road record, and that is why they missed out on an opening round bye.
#6 seed Maryland (+4000):
Hesitated putting them here. The talent is prevalent with 7’1 lottery pick Alex Len and Sophomore guards Dez Wells and Nick Faust. Len has the potential to dominate a game, and Faust has adjusted well after being relieved of PG duties to Seth Allen. The youth is very evident though, and with youth comes mistakes. I don’t see a deep run with a team that makes as many boneheaded plays as Maryland does, though a deep run is exactly what they’ll need to make the field of 64.
#9 seed Georgia Tech (+10000):
This team is extremely young, but has the confidence of an experienced squad. I really like the fact that they can win on the road, or at least play competitive. In the last 5 road games, they are 3-3, with the losses at Clemson by 3, Virginia by 28 (revenge spot for UVA), and BC by 2. They beat Miami (by 2), WF (by 1) and VT (by 10). They play tough D, and have the length to give some athletic teams trouble.
Best Bets:
North Carolina State (+900):
Obviously I will not be shocked if we see Miami and Duke on Sunday, but I like the way the schedule lines up for the Wolfpack. They should blow by VT, and have revenge games vs. UVA and MIA if they make it that far. This preseason ACC favorite has slipped off everyone’s radar, but has experience and shoots nearly 50% with a quality A/T ratio (1.15). They hold opponents to under 31% from 3, and have already beat Duke and lost at the buzzer to Miami. They are definitely worth a look.