Written By: Benjamin Tenenbaum @BTenenbaum
Every year millions of college basketball fans around the world await word on who is in, and who has been left out of the brackets. You see, it has become a national pastime, right up there with Super Bowl squares and rooting against the Yankees in October. However, before we get to that point there are two weeks that college basketball gamblers see as their Super Bowl. This year, the Brady’s and Manning’s are found in the Big Ten Conference which currently boasts five teams that have graced the top 10 most of the year. That is astounding considering the Big East has two and the ACC has one. This is going to make for an exciting tournament in Chicago and opportunities for sports gamblers.
So how does one go about capping the big ten tournament. Taking a look at past tournaments it has been a breeding ground for the top seed. In fact, five of the last six champions have been the one seed. Not much for parity there, until you realize that the two or three seed has only played in the championship game twice in that same time frame. So who are some sleepers and what should we look for this year?
Penn State (+100000):
Sorry, but you have no chance. Unlike in 2011 when you rode senior Talor Battle into the championship game as a 6 seed, you lack the senior leadership and guard play that will be needed to advance in this tournament. Oh, and you play Michigan who certainly has not forgotten the last time these two teams met.
Northwestern (+50000):
Sorry, but you have no chance. Had you not been dealing with injuries this could have been an exciting year. Early on you took down Baylor and Illinois State but alas, a first round matchup with Iowa, even in a local venue, means you are out first round.
Nebraska (+75000):
Sorry, but you have no chance. A first round matchup with Purdue is not what they were looking for. Nebraska has played decent beating Iowa and Illinois in the last couple of weeks but Purdue will be too much here. Talley will find scoring against a loose Purdue defense but they really
have nobody to match with Hammons and Marcius down low and the speed of Terone Johnson on the perimeter.
While lower seeds have produced several memorable upsets in this tournament (See Illinois 2008) the
Big Ten this year is just too stacked and too tough for one of these three teams to advance. However,
this is where it starts to get good.
Minnesota (+2500):
All year long Minnesota has frustrated bettors. With the Hollins brothers, Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe much was expected out of this team. But in true Tubby Smith fashion they have horribly underachieved. Ken Pom still has them as the 23rd ranked team but even that may be generous.
With recent losses to Nebraska and Purdue, Minnesota has somehow found themselves on the bubble. The Big Ten tournament is exactly what Minnesota needs. Tubby plays his bench and will keep his guys fresh for a run in this tournament. Not only do I believe they can beat Illinois but I also see them beating Indiana in the second round.
Illinois (+6000):
With the games in Chicago, Illinois will have a strong support system for the tournament. However, after a strong run in February they have regressed the last several weeks into another one of their shooting slumps. This team is not afraid to shoot but Minnesota represents a tough matchup for Illinois. Minnesota guards like to get in your face on defense and Illinois will lose the rebounding game. Tubby will make sure Illinois does not get open threes and will play a tough man defense. Illinois also lacks the speed and strength to bang with Minnesota. This is a huge game for both teams and Illinois is sitting on the bubble. This just might be where it bursts.
Purdue (+9000):
What is needed in this year’s Big Ten tournament to advance? Solid point guard play. What else is needed, a solid big. What does Purdue have? Both. Coming into this season there was a lot of optimism for Matt Painters squad. Purdue is a tough team with size and speed. Their recent win at
Wisconsin was really the first time Purdue put it together since destroying West Virginia back in January. I really like their potential first round game against Nebraska and could see them make life tough for Ohio State in the second round. Purdue is playing better now than when they previously played Ohio State.
Iowa (+4000):
As previously mentioned Iowa will be too tough and fast for Northwestern in the first round. In the second round they get a rematch with Michigan State. This time, team leader Roy Marble will be on the court. Michigan State thou is playing too good right now and this is where Iowa goes down. A good showing thou could see them dancing.
Michigan (+625):
Still stinging from the loss to Indiana, Michigan will take care of business in a major way against scrappy Penn State. This would set up a matchup with Wisconsin. The last time these two teams met, it was an overtime thriller. Michigan thou, as the best five seed ever, in any tournament, will use
their speed and force Wisconsin to play faster than they want. If Michigan can dictate tempo, Wisconsin lacks the firepower and offense to keep up. This could set Michigan up with Indiana second round. If that happens, I like Indiana as Indiana has just been a better team and Michigan will be too emotional for the game. However, if Michigan gets Minnesota, they will advance to the finals.
Wisconsin (+900):
While I love Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament, they have just not been good in the Big Ten Tournament. They have won only 1 game since 2009 and will find themselves against a better and faster Michigan team. Look for Wisconsin to do damage and potentially make the sweet 16 in the NCAA but do not look for them to be playing on the weekend in Chicago.
Michigan State (+325):
Not only has Adreian Payne proven to be an absolute beast in the Big Ten this year but Gary Harris has quietly been the best freshman in the conference. This team is big, long, athletic and they take good shots (outside of Keith Appling). Michigan State gets a great draw with either Iowa or
Northwestern and then either Ohio State or Purdue/ Nebraska. Either way, with all of those teams, I am taking Michigan State. Tom Izzo has done a tremendous job with this team and should be in line to make the finals of this tournament yet again.
Ohio State (+330):
If they can find another scorer besides Thomas, Ohio State will be dangerous in both tournaments. Aaron Craft has been driving more recently and is playing tougher now more than ever but the problem with Ohio State has been the same every game. Who else will score? The problem with
facing a Michigan State is that Izzo will be ready to take Thomas out of the game with Payne and force someone else to score. Will it be Smith Jr, will it be Craft, the problem is we just do not know and I do not trust that. Ohio State has won five in a row coming in including a win over Michigan State.
Indiana (+175):
Winners of the regular season conference, this team has higher goals than this tournament. They are already talking on campus about the NCAA tournament and after winning the regular season, I do not see them being fully focused. Yes, I know the top seeds have had tremendous success in this tournament but the conference has never been this deep. If they get by Minnesota and a Michigan or Wisconsin and have to face Michigan State, the play must be on State. If Indiana gets to the finals and plays Ohio State, Indiana will seek revenge and will cut down the nets. While Indiana is a great pick to win the entire NCAA tournament, the buzz around the team is quiet for the conference tournament and the focus just will not be there.
BEST BETS:
WINNER: Michigan State +325. DARK HORSE: Minnesota +2500