Written By: Richard Salvatori – You can follow him on Twitter @DickieSalvatori
Like most sports fans we constantly debate topics with friends, and while we like to think we win every time, that’s not the case. However, bragging rights are on the line as Tournament time approaches and we fill out our brackets trying to find the four teams that will meet for all the marbles in Atlanta.
One argument and theory I hear over and over again is how “open,” this field is. ESPN and CBS analysts along with countless other talking heads believe that virtually anyone has the ability to advance deep into the field this year, and there’s SOME validity to that.
For starters, the combined losses amongst the four top seeds is 19, which is the most in quite some time. In 2008, the one seeds combined for a total of 9 losses. That year saw all 4 one’s advance to the national semifinal.
Digging deeper into the pairings there’s more parity than I initially thought. What separates Creighton from Duke (a potential second round matchup)? Is Kansas any more dangerous than Georgetown or Miami? That said, if you look at the field in general, it’s hard to argue that the top 15–20 teams or so don’t stand out.
A week ago, Gonzaga blasted St. Mary’s on a neutral floor for the third time. St. Mary’s was ranked 31st in the last installment of Braketology 2013 according to PayneInsider.com, and 35 in ESPN’s BPI. They should be viewed as a serious contender, yet they haven’t been able to hang with their WCC rival at all.
Indiana’s record against the top 100 is borderline absurd, and Louisville has 5 losses by a total of 21 points, none of which have come within the last 5 weeks. The Cardinals were on our most undervalued list weeks ago when Vegas installed them at 12-1 to win the National Championship, now; Louisville is the favorite at 4-1.
When you take a closer look at the mid majors and teams in the 7-12 seed range, you see teams like San Diego State, Wichita State, North Carolina and Cincinnati. No disrespect, but I’ve seen major weakness in each. SDSU looks absurdly discombobulated at times on offense. Wichita State is young and has struggled with mediocre MVC competition in recent weeks. North Carolina’s most impressive non-conference win was by a thin margin against a UNLV team trying to figure out its rotation in the wake of Mike Moser’s return.
Bad performances will be fresh in the minds of gamblers and prognosticators alike come Thursday, so it’s possible and even likely that one or more of these teams will revert back against the trend and come up with a great performance when not expected.
Let’s face it; the NCAA tournament is an event unlike any other. To say you know how it’s going to play out is simply moronic. Basketball is such a great sport because of the setup. You have five players who can practice their craft anywhere and everywhere. Middle Tennessee State can compete with Alabama in basketball, whereas in football it’s virtually impossible.
It’s a science that is incredibly unscientific, and if people just come to the conclusion that the field is wide open because we only have one team with less than four losses, I’d beg to argue that their version of science stands without reason.
Sure, a dark horse could emerge, but where is that team located? The 2005-2006 George Mason Final Four group included 3 seniors (all of whom were starters and major contributors) as well as a legendary coach who now resides in Coral Gables. Patriots’ had an elite point guard in Tony Skinn who was not only second team all CAA that year, but won conference defensive player of the year. Jai Lewis was a bruising, 6’7, 275 pound center that gave Mason a presence in the middle in addition to their 48th ranking in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency.
VCU accomplished the same feat a few years later and that roster was also spiced with serious talent and veteran leadership. That Rams team was 32nd in offensive efficiency and 86th in defense. They were battle tested coming into the tournament and used a high pressure defense to mix it up with opponents.
Butler has also made advancement seem possible for smaller and less well known schools in recent years. VCU and Butler are no longer true “mid-majors.” Those programs are now well known and have greater access to recruits on a national level.
Cinderella stories are great, but looking at the top 15-20 teams you can see a bit of a disparity compared to the rest. It’s not to say a lower seed can’t rise up to the occasion and take down a few heavyweights en route to an improbable run, but don’t get carried away thinking a 16-seed is going to do the impossible.
There’s a few lower seeded groups to focus on, namely Iowa State and Oklahoma. Don’t sleep on Bucknell or Colorado either, but each has major question marks. Iowa State is 121 nationally in defense and relies on the three point shot to an absurd extent. If they get hot, look out, but that recipe could also equate to an early exit. Oklahoma’s defense is a touch better (82), but have lapses on offense. The Bison and Buffaloes also have offensive question marks.
History and data tell us that you need a good balance in those categories to advance, and most teams outside the top 30 simply don’t have much of a shot. In addition to historical data, let’s revert back to some top line analytics. Number one seeds own a 78% win percentage in the tournament overall. They hold an above 80% win percentage in round 2, around 75% or so in round 3. Elite 8 numbers are a bit more mixed, but the ones also convert at an over 60% clip when in the Final Four.
At the end of the day, take a look at the top of the rankings as opposed to trying to find a gem or two further down the list. It’s not as fun or as creative to those around you, but it will probably help your bankroll over the next month. Sure, your friends will give you an extra stroke if you predict Georgetown’s demise versus Florida Gulf Coast, but placing a bet on Wisconsin to crush Ole Miss has the identical eleven-to-ten payday.