Archives April 2013

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The NCAA men’s Final Four is an event comparable to the Super Bowl in the sense that it provides a
great gambling opportunity for bettors to cash in before season’s end in what is an annual, televised
event for which viewership will be excessive.

More viewers equals more gambling and, as a result, a market with increased intrigue is established. But
the weekend in total should be analyzed before decisions are made, and thus we’ll look to break down
everything these national semifinals have to offer in order to make you a more informed viewer.

Star power is important here as well. Kids are playing not only for their seasons and possibly their
careers, but also for draft positioning. That should not be overlooked. Did we mention the national title
is on the line?

Michigan – Syracuse
No one is making more of a name for himself than Trey Burke right now. True college fans knew he
was the nation’s best point guard coming into this tournament. But I’m not sure anyone had a ton of
confidence in this team’s chances after the brackets were released.

Burke brings his team into this Final Four coming off of maybe the three best halves of basketball
anyone has played all year. The Wolverines are hot, and their youth has vanished in the wake of
newfound swagger and confidence.

Mitch McGary is finally becoming the player many of us envisioned. He is also surrounded by a versatile
group of forwards who not only defend the rim admirably, but also do a good job of taking away interior
passing lanes.

Syracuse has two dynamic guards in Brandon Triche and Michael Carter Williams. But their offense is
most effective when dominating the offensive glass. Their misses become assists and it feeds their effort
defensively.

Marquette made only 12 field goals on Saturday, but 5 of them came in a flurry of mid-range excellence
from star forward Davontae Gardner. Gardner did nothing fancy or flashy. He established position at the
foul line, turned and fired.

I’m not certain Michigan has an athlete quite capable of doing what Gardner did in the regional final, but
they can attack the middle of the zone off of ball screen action. I’d also look for Glenn Robinson to be a
presence in the short corner, as that is an additional soft spot for this defense.

On the flip side, watch to see how John Beilein uses the 1-3-1. The Big East in general is a conference
where most teams use 2-3 because it is so widespread. In an interview with ESPN earlier this week, Pitt
coach Jamie Dixon emphasized its importance.

As stated, working the ball into the middle of the 2-3 is paramount to success against it. A 1-3- 1
alignment forces the offense to look away from the middle. It also forces guards to more or less play
“hot potato” because of trap potential.

Syracuse’s offense looked great against Cal, Indiana and Marquette. How will it look against the 1-3-1?
That’s anyone’s guess. As good as Carter-Williams has been, this will be a new test for him, and he has
been turnover prone at times.

All in all, if Michigan can defend the glass and prevent easy baskets, they are simply too efficient on
offense to lose this game. They have the “look” of a team on a mission, and Burke can launch himself
into legendary status with a few more performances like what we’ve seen recently.

Wichita State – Louisville
I do not want to dismiss Wichita State in anyway. I felt like they possessed great value prior to the Sweet
16, and they proved me correct. But when I look at this matchup on paper, I’m just not sure they’ll be
able to score enough to win.

Wichita has several players capable of beating Louisville’s press and getting into the teeth of that
defense. Malcolm Armstead and Cleanthony Early are two who can make plays in the mid-range area.

But many teams make the mistake of trying to get to the rim against Louisville, and while I usually favor
an attacking approach (similar to what Russ Smith regularly employs), I’m just not sure that works here.

Wichita State will need interior scoring to hit anywhere near an offensive efficiency number sufficient to
enable them to win, and I don’t know that they can do it. Their low block scorers stand 6’8, and it will be
tough for them to finish against the size Louisville has.

Where this game could get interesting is on the other end, as Wichita has both the defensive mentality
and overall toughness to stop the Cardinals from pulling away in this game.

The total for this game opened at 130.5 and seems to be hovering in the 131.5/132 range now, a
number that seems relatively accurate. Louisville played Kentucky in last year’s Final Four. That game
went under rather easily, and one could say this matchup offers some similarities to 2012, only with
Louisville’s role reversed.

Louisville plays slightly faster than Wichita, and they will look to speed them up. The injury to Kevin
Ware was gruesome but should also not be overlooked in regards to depth. Ware is a major force
defensively, and their ability to press over a sustained period will be undermined in his absence.

The Shockers only turned it over 3 times in the second half of the OSU game. So the slow pace Wichita
will want could work, and they may be able to hang around and keep the game tight enough that an
under is a legitimate possibility.

Written By: Billy Attridge @WATT_05

Final Four Betting Odds Preview:

#1 Louisville (33-5) vs. #9 Wichita State (30-8), 6:09 pm EST
Line Opened: Louisville-10, 130.5
Current: Lousiville-10.5, 132.5

Key Factors:
Louisville’s Defensive Pressure -The pressure that Russ Smith and Peyton Siva put on opposing guards in the full court is suffocating, and as long as referees are allowing them to guard in such a physical nature, it will continue to be. They currently own the best Defensive Assist to Turnover Ratio in the country (0.546), and are 2nd in Defensive Turnover per Offensive Poss. (23.5%). Wichita State is 94th in A/T ratio (1.07), and 198th in Turnover per Offensive Poss. (19.5%). While Wichita State did play (and beat) VCU, the quickness and defensive rotation of Louisville is at another level at this point in the year.


Field Goal %- In their four tournament games, Louisville is shooting 55.075% from the field, which is 5% better than the #1 shooting team this year, Creighton (50.1%). This spike can be attributed to forcing turnovers leading to easy buckets in transition. The Cardinals ability to beat the defender off the dribble (again, Smith and Siva) forces help side defense and open looks for C Gorgui Dieng under the basket, who just so happens to be 20-24 in the tournament (83.3%). Wichita State is stingy on defense, and has been consistently good all year. In the tournament they have held 3 of the top 15 Offensive Efficient Teams (Pitt, Gonzaga, Ohio State) under 36% from the field.

Wichita State’s Rebounding Advantage- Wichita State crashes the boards on both ends of the floor effectively. They rank 9th in the country in Defensive Rebounding % (76.2), and 14th in Offensive Rebounding % (37.6). The Shockers do a terrific job at team rebounding, as 6 of their top 7 players (minutes) average at least 2.6 RPG. When guards buy into the concept of team rebounding, second chance points are hard to come by. Louisville does rebound effectively on the offensive end (11th) but gives up plenty of boards on the defensive side (168th).

Situational- The motivation angle coming from Kevin Ware’s injury and the fact the tournament is being played in his hometown Atlanta cannot hurt their chances. Louisville should also be the crowd favorite, and you have to wonder whether the long layoff might cool down the Shockers 3-point % (45% last 3 games), and regress back to mean (34%)

Conclusion: How this game is officiated is huge. I do lean Wichita State at 10.5, mainly because Gregg Marshall is great off of a long delay, and I think Wichita State will try and make this a half-court game on both ends. They are 7-2 vs. RPI Top 50, and if the number gets to 11, it’s a sure play. The total might get pushed to 133 or 133.5, as 88% of public tickets written are on the over. If it reaches 133, I would look under.

#4 Michigan (30-7) vs. #4 Syracuse (30-9), 8:49 pm EST
Line Opened: BOL SYR-1.5, CRIS-Pick, PINN- Mich-2, 131
Current: Michigan-2, 131

Key Factors:
Michigan’s Offensive Efficiency- The Wolverines are 1st overall in Offensive Turnover % (14.2%), mainly due to outstanding guard play by POY candidate Trey Burke, who personally carries better than a 3:1 Assist to Turnover ratio. Their ability to rotate the ball around the perimeter quickly enables them to get off quality 3-point looks. They are 17th in the country in 3-point % (38.5), and 2nd in the country in Points per Poss. (1.16). The emergence of Freshman F Mitch McGary gives Michigan solid size and toughness in the paint, and a legitimate inside-out game.

Syracuse’s 2-3 Zone- Syracuse’s vaunted 2-3 zone is giving opponents fits in the tournament, mainly due to their size and arm length. Jim Boeheim recruits long, athletic bodies that suit his zone, and with an average height of 6’7, his talented group of guys can close out quick and disrupt shooters anywhere on the court. They have held opponents to an average of 18.35% from 3-point range in the tournament, and this includes Montana and Indiana, who both shot north of 37% behind the arc this year. Syracuse ranks 2nd in the country in Block % (11.6%), and 7th in the country in Steals per Poss. (13.4%), which can be attributed toward strong defensive rotation and strength on the defensive interior (C Baye Keita).

History- As great a coach as John Beilein is, he has never successfully figured out Boeheim’s 2-3. As a head coach at the West Virginia from 2002-2007, Beilein went 0-6, and along with 2 losses as a Richmond head coach and 1 at Michigan, Beilein slumps into this game with an 0-9 record vs. Boeheim. Granted, he has never had a team with as much talent and skillful shooters as this Michigan one does, but it is still worth mentioning.

Conclusion: Books obviously had different opinions on this game at the open, but all have seemingly agreed on Michigan-2, 131. I lean Cuse/Under here. Both teams like to play slightly below average pace, and even though Michigan struggles to defend at times, I’m not sure Syracuse is ready to bust for 65+ points. The only way Syracuse wins this is with a defense first mentality, forcing Michigan to take long, contested jumpers. This number has a slight possibility of reaching 3 by game-time, and if this is the case, take the Orange plus the points.