Written By: Richard Salvatori
The NFL Draft combined with regime changes allow for prognosticators and pundits alike to get a true sense of how the league is reshaping. There’s still much to do with free agents roaming the market, rookie camp, OTA’s etc., but it isn’t too early to get an idea of how oddsmakers and the gambling community view squads right now.
Using Atlantis Casino 2013 Win Totals this is a group of teams that has the potential to make you money simply based on their current perception relative to win projection.
Jacksonville Jaguars Projected Win Total: Over 4.5 (-140)
The Jaguars’ were abysmal in 2012, ranking near the cellar in virtually every statistical category. Jacksonville will come into the 2013 season with low expectations, but there’s a lot to consider regarding their off-season – many positives.
For starters, the Jaguars have new ownership, which should typically be viewed as a positive development. Gus Bradley was brought in to coach this group, an exciting change considering his past work in reviving the Seattle Seahawks defensive unit in recent years.
Bradley is a fierce competitor, and he made a clear cut effort to find individuals in this year’s draft who seem to share such traits with him. Even current roster members have commented how different (for the better) things have been.
Luke Joekel might be the best player in this class; he fortifies an offensive line that struggled a season ago. Jonathan Cyprien is more than just a safety from a small school; he’s a well built and instinctive player who flies to the ball. The Jaguars’ decision to grab him in the early second reminded me of the Detroit Lions taking Louis Delmas in a similar spot back in 2010.
Jacksonville didn’t stop there; they picked up a pair of speedy playmakers in Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson, both of whom should provide depth at wide-out behind Justin Blackmon. Joshua Evans is also a safety who could see action in some capacity for this secondary.
This roster should be deeper under Gus Bradley, and considering where he is coming from, I’d expect a more run-heavy scheme on offense. Maurice Jones Drew played just six games a season ago; getting back 47.7% of their total offensive production is a great start.
This will be a make-or-break year for Blaine Gabbert, but many suggest he simply needs more time in the pocket. Gabbert ranked in the top third of NFL quarterbacks when given 2.6 seconds or more to throw. Over 58% of Gabbert’s throws came at or under 2.5 seconds to throw. Eugene Monroe is one of the leagues best, the aforementioned addition of Joekel, and second-year man Mike Brewster who was thrown into the fire as an undrafted rookie should help give Blaine time so the front office can assess what they have under center.
When breaking down the schedule landscape you have to consider their division. It’s fair to think the Colts’ with their -30 point differential in 2012-2013 will regress, and there’s very limited expectations regarding Tennessee. This Jaguars team hung tough with Houston in their second matchup last year, it’s not crazy to think they could grab three divisional games.
The non-divisional games include the Chiefs’, Cardinals and Bills at home, with road dates against the likes of Oakland and Cleveland. Getting to six or even seven wins wouldn’t be shocking. If you believe Jacksonville can alter its identity successfully in season one of the Bradley era, they’re worth a look. When you factor in that blindly betting overs with teams aligned at 6 wins or less has produced a 34-16-1 (.680) record since 2002, it makes betting the Jaguars’ OVER 4.5 wins all the more appealing.
San Diego Chargers Projected Win Total: Over 7 (+100)
Speaking of coaching/G.M. changes, the Bolts’ underwent a much needed transformation this off-season, and it can only elevate their chances of success when you rid yourself of a guy like Norv Turner.
San Diego’s offense was horrific last season. Their ground game and offensive line play lacked any explosiveness and Philip Rivers simply didn’t have weapons around him to gain consistent yardage. Antonio Gates is a step slower, yet still productive. The unveiling of Danario Alexander at midseason was helpful, yet short lived. Keenan Allen is a supreme talent who saw character questions and injury concerns slot him two-rounds later than he should’ve been selected. D.J. Fluker is a monster of a tackle and he should be able to provide Rivers tremendous support immediately having been under the tutelage of Nick Saban for four years.
Defense was strong last season for San Diego, but losing Takeo Spikes is a blow. Manti T’eo is a first round talent who landed in the second round. He presents good value and should start immediately.
However, the Chargers are tough to handicap because their schedule could be daunting as they draw the AFC South and NFC East. Still, they are being projected as likely landing around 6.5 or 7 wins. They should be the second best team in their division (the Chiefs’ will push them), that alone could be good enough for 7 or 8 wins, and because of that I think an even 7 presents value. The Chargers’ haven’t won less than 7 games since 2003, and I don’t see this season being any different.
Pittsburgh Steelers Projected Wins Total: Under 10 (+100)
The Steelers’ enter 2013 as a curious case. On one hand, their recent struggles and lack of efficiency at the end of games in 2012 make you think they’ll surely turn it around given the consistency of the franchise. Add in the fact that they had what is being seen as a great draft and they should be back, right?
The good news is their schedule opens as follows: vs. TEN, @CIN, vs. CHI, @MIN, BYE, @NYJ. However, Pittsburgh has road dates later in the year with New England, Baltimore, Green Bay, and they travel to Oakland, a place where they’ve struggled recently.
This team has a myriad of concerns, with age being at the forefront. Their front seven should likely hold up fine, especially with the addition of Jarvis Jones to play outside in the 3-4, but their inability to address secondary needs is catching up with them in a league that is becoming more pass-heavy by the minute.
Offensively, their tackle situation is a concern. Marcus Gilbert leaves a lot to be desired and while Mike Adams is gifted in the run game, he struggle mightily against above average pass rushers when forced to play on the left side.
This team may very well eclipse the 10-win mark, but the metrics used cap their total at 9. We’ve grown accustomed to this franchise always being in the mix, and an improved run game behind the addition of LeVeon Bell combined with a more balanced attack overall could certainly help that cause. However, I see too many issues with their secondary, offensive line and an over-dependency on Ben Roethlisberger to carry Steeler Nation. Pittsburgh might have a bounce-back season, but all signs point to this number being inflated due to decades of pristine perception.