Written By: Billy Attridge
Sports betting success relies greatly on beating the closing number. The goal for any type of marketplace investor, gamblers included, should be entering the market at the optimal time. Getting the best price is one of the most indicative signs of a successful, long-term, profitable investor or sports bettor.
One of the main ingredients to “beating the close” is preparation. Having your own set of point spreads created before the market opens is essential. Your pre-made lines should not only include power ratings but situations, scheduling spots, trends with value and any other information acquired from coaches and players that may affect a team’s performance. If a sports bettor fails to have confidence in his or her preparation, how can one expect to enter the market with a long-term edge? It’s unrealistic to beat the closing line every bet, but your goal should be 70-80% of the time your money enters the market, you’re getting the best of it. Whether it’s a drastic 1.5-point move in a college basketball game, laying -3 (-105) in a football game that closes -3 (-130), or .10 cents in a baseball game, you must get the best of it to stand a chance long-term.
An excellent example of conviction, or lack thereof, was this past March where public darling, #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast challenged their in-state foe, #3 Florida Gators. Florida Gulf Coast shocked the World beating both Georgetown and San Diego State – recreational bettors were lining up to back the Eagles’. Sharp bettors with accurate power numbers created before the NCAA Tournament likely made Florida a 16-17 point favorite. The opening number that hit the board was Florida -11. The prepared, confident, savvy, well-equipped sports investor jumped all over Florida -11 and -11.5. Hesitant sports bettors lacking confidence wait for their opinions to be confirmed by the market, and in this instance, grabbed Florida -12, -12.5, and -13. It’s ok to gauge the market wrong 20-30% of the time, but if you’re waiting for the market to confirm your opinion (chasing steam) you have absolutely no chance. The line closed Florida -13. The final score was Florida 62-50. Those that fired Florida -11 with conviction at open, WON. Those that waited until the market confirmed their position and felt comfortable entering the market and grabbed -12.5 or -13, LOST.
Bettors lose their edge with every penny they surrender by entering the market at wrong times – market reading is crucial. Fully understanding the edge on a specific game and deciding how the market will react to the posted number is imperative. The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills Week 1 in the upcoming season. Betonline opened New England 5-point road favorites. Your handicap sets the number at New England -3.5. Let’s play Buffalo +5, right? Wrong. Despite recent events, New England consistently receives the majority of public bets. Buffalo is viewed as a doormat. Five (+5/-5) is a “dead number” in the NFL and the worst case scenario is; it goes to 4.5. In which case, you take +4.5 with little to no value lost. The line currently sits at 7 across the board, a far more advantageous price for Buffalo bettors.
Confidence in your preparation and handicapping is the long-term difference between professional bettors and those forced to make sports betting a hobby. Have conviction in what you do and don’t hesitate to fire!