Written By: Todd Fuhrman – Former Oddsmaker
Thoughts From: Payne Insider – Professional Sports Bettor
“Always ignore the boos, they usually come from the cheap seats.”
Pros vs Joes isn’t meant to piss you off…but it can’t guarantee you go undefeated either. It’s not meant to tell you that your bets are dead before the game is played just because they’re “square” or “public” (only Cubs futures fall into this subset). Rather Pros vs Joes weekly tweets are meant to inform like every other piece of content you read on social media. They’re a glimpse into the wallet of the professional to know how he or she has approached the betting card for the weekend by beating the market and taking a position on a game. The misconception that you have to bet dogs to be sharp or avoid road favorites to think like a professional is nearly as antiquated as the original iPhone. Tweets aren’t meant to say fading the public is the only sure fire way to win betting the NFL; although, it’s never a bad idea to be on the other side of the masses when there’s huge volume on a game.
No, Pros vs Joes is a tool you can use to aid your handicapping when that last game on a card may or may not make the cut. To all those out there (and they’re only a handful) that choose to troll and root against sides “just because,” your ignorance shows through unless you’re in possession of a ticket on the other side. Always remember blogs and twitter give you the option to read and follow whoever you’d like…don’t read content from anyone if all it does is get your blood boiling early Sunday mornings.
Pros vs Joes aren’t even the games you bet, but rather the numbers you take. Pros can move on a side +1, but what makes someone a Joe is if they bet that same game -3. It’s not a knock, but it can be the difference between winning and losing which is why turning a profit from this pursuit is always challenging.
Payne’s Thoughts…
Former Vegas oddsmaker, Todd Fuhrman touched many key components to the “Sharps” vs “Squares,” or in this case; “Pros” vs “Joes” battle that takes place daily. It’s always important to remember WHERE and WHY backlash rears its ugly head. Typically, it stems from jealousy and agendas, or just a fan with a bad tattoo of his favorite teams’ mascot. How dare you insinuate someones favorite team might not fair well come Sunday! Johnny and the boys are coming over and I’m making my good luck bean dip – no way our Cowboys lose!
The difference between the bettor forced to punch a time clock come Monday, and a professional bettor can be as little as 3% at year’s end. Just because the loud, drunk at the bar wearing his Ricky Waters jersey that’s now two-sizes too small defied the odds of a one-game-sample-size cashing his Seahawks -1.5 bet this weekend, doesn’t mean he’s going to be successful long-term opposing the Pros. In fact, if he did it enough times over a long enough sample size he’ll be cozied up under his local bridge.
At the same time, the idea of Pros and Joes clashing on EVERY single game is just inaccurate. It’s a bookmakers nightmare when it happens, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games daily. Last night, the Pros laid 5 and 5.5 with the Saints’ early in the week. Joes continued down that path with reckless abandon laying 7 thirty minutes before kickoff. Just because you happen to be on the same side as the Pros doesn’t make you sharp, you will never win more games laying 7 than you will 5.5, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games frequently. Over the course of 365-days that 1.5-points of lost edge could be the difference between a bettor hitting 51.5% and 54.5%. Punching a time clock or being a profitable bettor.
In the end, the information provided is to help YOU, the bettor. It’s also up to YOU, the bettor to distinguish the difference between information and information WITH VALUE. Being cognizant of the difference is pertinent to deciphering winning information from losing. Take a step back, open your mind, and realize that the sharpest bettors money doesn’t have a team logo. They’re buying teams (betting on) one week and selling (betting against) the next. The sharpest bettors have no bias, they’re only goal is to see their bottom line increase.