Written By: Richard Salvatori
Spring training has concluded, the ball is officially rolling on the 2014 MLB season. Getting a feel for teams early on and gauging what a ball club could be capable of relative to perception is imperative for successful MLB betting. Weather your prerogative is to monitor teams throughout the year and hand-pick specific quality betting spots, or you choose the futures market, having a keen understanding of Vegas’ win total projection for each club is a good starting point for bettors to handicap a teams potential.
We’ve identified a few teams whose win projections stand out as having immense betting value, and we’ll attempt to touch upon what could make these opportunities quality investments.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa opened at 87.5 per LVH, 88 per William Hill and 88.5 at Atlantis in Reno. The Rays’ notched 92 wins a season ago despite competing in a division that housed the World Series champion.
There is an expectation that New York and Baltimore should both be improved this year, lending credence to the possibility that the AL East will be an even more difficult division to navigate through. Still, you have to like this number for Tampa if you can get the best of it.
Chris Archer looked incredibly sharp this spring, and we already know what David Price can do. Archer’s potentiality gives Joe Maddon a dynamic pairing to work with atop his rotation. Alex Cobb and Matt Moore really came on in 2013, but Moore did struggle at times in the second half of the year. He finished with a WHIP of 1.30 and went deeper than 5 1/3 only once during September.
The Rays’ youthful rotation could make things interesting later in the year as young arms have a tendency to wear down. Cobb and Moore combined to throw roughly 193 innings a season ago, but the presence of Archer should enable them to stay steady at a similar pace this season.
Offensively, Tampa won’t overwhelm opponents; they finished 11th in runs and 12th in BA a season ago. However, they do a fantastic job of getting on base and have quality role players that seemingly get clutch hits. If 23 year old Wil Myers comes on in his sophomore campaign, Tampa’s lineup will have more than enough to win the A.L. East and eclipse 87.5 wins in the process.
OVER 87.5 WINS
*******
Texas Rangers
Not long ago, Texas had been to consecutive World Series and was the class of the A.L. Heading into 2014, the Rangers look don’t project as high as many would have though.
Betonline sportsbook projects Ron Washington’s crew to win 88 games while LVH and Atlantis come in at 86.5. Texas won 91 a season ago, but they started the month of September 2-12 and while faltering down the stretch prior to missing the playoffs altogether.
The offseason saw them move Ian Kinsler in exchange for Prince Fielder, a shuffle that should leave them stacked with pop at the corners. Shin-Soo Choo was also a quality addition to the lineup and he ensures that they will have a small ball element attached to their approach in addition to enhancing OBPS.
The major concern for Texas is pitching. Outside of Yu Darvish, who is nursing a neck injury late in spring, there’s little in the way of an established mound presence. Martin Perez should continue to grow in what will be his third season in the majors, but this team is going to need a lot more from Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison if they want to survive the A.L. West. Neftali Perez and Tanner Scheppers form the basis of what could be a very strong bullpen, but that group won’t have a chance to shine if the starters fall off significantly.
Even if the Angels fail to meet high expectations, they will be stronger than last year and Oakland boasts a very balanced group overall. Seattle is a team currently being budgeted for a win total in the low 80’s, signaling a potential improvement of 8-10 wins compared to a year ago. The Mariners ranked 3rd in MLB in home runs, unfortunately, there were few base runners when balls cleared the fence. Seattle also had one of the ‘unluckiest’ bullpens – core numbers dictate their ERA should have been nearly a run lower than it actually was.
Improvements for the aforementioned squads likely come at the expense of Texas. I don’t necessarily see this team falling flat on its face, but the potential for them to slide in under 88 wins is certainly feasible.
UNDER 88 WINS
*******
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been assessed a projection of 89 total wins, and that sort of figure makes the under look more than appealing. This franchise has long been dependent on quality starting pitching and this upcoming season could be the first in some time in which they truly lack that strength.
Kris Medlen is a workhorse who has immense expectation, but was dealing with injury issues recently and it was just announced he underwent Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Beyond Medlen, prospects are scarce. Atlanta must get a decent year from Julio Teheran. OVER 11.5 wins might be a decent prop to look at for the 23 year old who had an impressive campaign in 2013. The second time around for Teheran will be tougher, especially, if he has the weight on his shoulders of being the anchor to this Braves rotation.
Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood round out this group at the moment, but they don’t provide a ton of great news. Minor has been on the DL and is scheduled to make a minor league start soon in the hopes that he can be activated to the major league roster as soon as possible.
Beachy was placed on the 15-day disabled list who looks to be facing a second Tommy John surgery; the losses of him and Medlin are potentially devastating for both their futures and the Braves ball club.
Wood was impressive in spring training and could be a good bet to have a nice season for Atlanta. Still, he’s been little more than a bullpen piece to this point in his career and expecting legitimate success over the course of an entire season will be a tall task.
The rotation is in such shambles that Atlanta turned to thirty-seven-year-old Freddy Garcia, and when that didn’t work, they inked soon to be thirty-six-year-old, Aaron Harang. This team has as dynamic offense at times, but their propensity to be extremely streaky could have the Braves in deep trouble when cold. Lots of boom or bust pieces scattered up and down Atlanta’s lineup with B.J. Upton (Batting .233 his last 2,620 AB’s) and Dan Uggla (.235 his last 2,724 AB’s). In his 5th season, Jason Heyward looks destined for the leadoff spot, a guy who complied 446 strikeouts his first 4 seasons. If the Braves didn’t play in a division that could potentially boast the three worst teams in baseball, they would have zero chance eclipsing their projected win total.
UNDER 89 WINS