Written By: Billy Attridge
Successful sports bettors have unique skills and talents that allow them to profit in a market where less than 2% can. Work ethic, discipline, and talent for analyzing information and data makes them a rare breed. The glitz and glamour of placing a wager or taking a position on a sporting event often overshadows the incredible amount of labor and diligence put in by professional bettors each day. One practice that sports bettors on any level should apply to their betting acumen is; review! At the end of any given betting season, whether your pockets are flush with cash or you ended in the red (please bet responsibly), you should be asking yourself these types of questions:
Did I consistently beat the market?
This cannot be stated enough. Great indications of a successful sports bettor is their ability to get out ahead of the sports betting market and hold a ticket with a more advantageous number than Pinnacle/BOL or a sharp Vegas book closed at. Using the BetOnline ‘True Line’ (ex: MLB Cinn-113, SF+104, True Line is -108.5/+108.5) is an excellent benchmark for determining your sports trading aptitude. Professionals realize that any less than 75% success at this skill spells trouble for their bottom line.
How many fortunate wins/unfortunate losses?
This can be extremely tricky to gauge, it takes a realistic person, but with the right mindset it can be done and is exponentially beneficial. These wagers can be defined as games that had an event/series of events that altered what seemed to be a decided outcome. You can be on the “right side” of a game and lose. Conversely, you can be on the “wrong side” of a game and cash a ticket afterwards. For example, Minnesota played Baltimore last year with a total of 42 set for the game. 42 points in the 4th Quarter (5 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes) pushed this game ‘Over’. As a disciplined and rational investor, it is not outlandish to chalk this as a “Bad Beat” for the player who wagered on the ‘Under’, and an extremely fortunate result for those who dabbled with the ‘Over’. Understanding that we are “gamblers” and a massive swing during the course of a sporting event is not uncommon, this type of review should be labeled: “Proceed with Caution”.
Do I have an unjustified bias when I wager?
While there are numerous trends and styles of betting, many recreational (and some professional) bettors may have a bias towards a certain subset of teams. The difference between the two is professionals have a reason towards siding with home double-digit Underdogs in the NFL, while many recreational bettors routinely pound Favorites and ‘Overs’. Tracking certain subsets (ex: Road favorites -2.5 to -9.5 in the NBA) and recording your results may not only expose a negative tendency, but allow an investor to realize a strong area in his handicapping. Maintaining spreadsheets and logging your positions is vital to anyone taking on sports betting as a serious investment. Adapting to a change in the market comes much easier to a bettor who reviews each season and deciphers where profitable positions still exist, compared to the player who continually plays into –EV (expected value) situations.