Written By: Billy Attridge
* LVH Opening Total: 8 (O-120, U+100)
* BetOnline Current Total: 8.5 (U-170)
* BetOnline AFC West Odds: (+650)
The NFL Regular Season kicks off in less than a month, but for serious sports gamblers and investors alike, the preparation for this upcoming season likely began at least three months ago. The amount of data and information that is pertinent to having success as a sports bettor takes time to acquire. One team that jumps off the page as being overvalued based on last year’s results, and could be destined for a sub-par season, is the Kansas City Chiefs.
If we take a peak at a simple mathematical formula, the Pythagorean Theorem, we observe the Chiefs should have won approximately 9.57 games in 2013. They won 11 games, or 1.43 wins more than the basic statistics tell us they should have. Pythagorean Theorem accounts for turnover margin (KC +18), and allows for even those mathematically challenged individuals (it’s ok, we know you’re out there) to arrive at a solid base for handicapping a 16 game season.
DON’T MISS OUT: SAVE 50% ON PAYNEINSIDER’S 2014-2015 NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL COMBO PACKAGE! THE LAST 7 SEASONS COMBINED A $100 SPORTS BETTOR HAS MADE OVER $51,000!!!
We can further examine my skepticism of Kansas City by evaluating the quarterbacks they faced last season. In 2013, the Chiefs defense forced 21 interceptions, 3rd most in the NFL. Impressive, but who was under center for the opposition? Blaine Gabbert, Michael Vick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrell Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, Jeff Teul, Matt McGloin and an injured RGIII. The Chiefs 17 interceptions against these quarterbacks (9 games) accounted for almost 81% of their picks for the entire season! This year, they have been “blessed” with the NFC West (Kaepernick, Wilson, Palmer and Bradford), and those physical defenses. A late season visit to Pittsburgh puts a definitive stamp on a much more difficult road for Kansas City in 2014. The AFC West division has strengthened as a whole in the off-season, and a game they must win to even sniff their season win total is Week 1; Kansas City is currently installed a 4.5-point favorite at home over the Titans. However, they will be without the services of their best wide-out, Dwayne Bowe due to a 1-game suspension.
The current Chiefs over/under number sits at 8.5, with the under heavily juiced (-165 to -195 depending where you shop). While I realize this is not the optimal market entry point, I would recommend playing this at the current number for a little less than an average wager. Some sportsbooks offer alternative betting lines; one may offer 9(-225) or 8(+100). Gamblers can often take advantage of these lines with a little work and some shopping around (please do not limit yourself to 1 or 2 books). Fundamental exercises such as line shopping and self-control are crucial to long-term success in the sports betting marketplace – and should be practiced daily!