Archives September 2014

Written By: Billy Attridge

Betting the NFL is unlike betting any other sport. The amount of public money that saturates the market on a weekly basis allows professional bettors the opportunity to capitalize on line adjustments based purely on public action. For every investor claiming the NFL betting market is too tight, professional bettors understand it’s the market with the least efficient money in conjunction with the opportunity to invest larger sums than any other american sport market. The public has a tendency to overreact; teams are constantly being evaluated based on what they accomplished (or did not) the previous week, and bet accordingly.

It is widely known that 3 and 7 are the most important key numbers in NFL wagering; by adding the two aforementioned win margins together it works out that 3 and 7 point victories account for 19.2% of all NFL games. So entering the market at optimal times is crucial when games are aligned around these key numbers. As it pertains to Giants at Redskins on Thursday Night Football, New York backers should have grabbed +4.5 or better, while Washington supporters interested in laying the wood could have laid as low as -3.

Monitoring line moves around 3 and 7 can be very indicative of how professional bettors and the NFL betting market sees a game. In Week 1, we saw the Minnesota Vikings open as a 6-point underdog, only to be bet through the 3, and close 2.5 at a number of the sharpest sports books. At this point, the market is screaming that the number may not matter in this contest (it didn’t, as the Vikings steamrolled the Rams 34-6). Moving through the 3 is an extremely strong move, especially on game-day, when betting limits are at their very highest. A move from +3.5 to +2.5 (1 point move) carries more weight in terms of strength than a move from -10.5 to -13.5 (3 point move). It’s imperative to have a broad understanding of the NFL betting market, and how it works. Factoring in key numbers, the time of week betting limits increase and then reach their peak, as well as, betting percentages are a collection of tools all bettors should incorporate in their NFL handicapping.

Which games in Week 4 should you keep an eye on? The Vikings, Bills and Chiefs all opened at or above the largest key number in the NFL and are trending downwards or below the 3. Money has driven Minnesota from +3 (+100) to +2.5 (+102), the Bills from +4 (-110) to +3 (-110), and the Chiefs from +4.5 (-110) to as low as +3 (+110), as of Wednesday afternoon. As these games dance around the 3, it is imperative to watch for further market moves in that direction, or potential resistance. Using a Live Odds feed and monitoring NFL line movements at the sharpest offshore betting establishments is a beneficial weapon all bettors should add to their arsenal.

Written By: Billy Attridge

One way investors can monitor the sports betting market is by comparing futures odds over a specific set of time. One practice I perform each summer is compiling odds from sports books prior to the NFL preseason, and then note changes after the teams dress rehearsal’ game has concluded.

For most teams, that’s the 3rd game, but every year there are exceptions and this preseason was no different. For Carolina and Kansas City, it was week 2. Although, Jeff Fisher and his Rams took a far different approach this season, he typically uses his teams final preseason game as the dress rehearsal. This exercise provides an opportunity to peak at teams the sports betting marketplace has found value in. Using odds from BetOnline, here are some notable changes:

San Diego Chargers (33/1):
The Chargers were 48/1 prior to the preseason, and it’s easy to see why their odds have dropped. Quarterback Phillip Rivers has had a stellar start to the NFL year (15 for 18, 166 yards and 1 TD), and Coach Mike McCoy has resurrected this offense by utilizing talented players like Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The main concern for San Diego lies in the defense, where a questionable secondary, coupled with tackling concerns, could lead to disaster. A spot they couldn’t afford any injuries was up the middle, and with Kwame Geathers now on the IR, it could be tough to overcome that loss. Regardless, if they can produce an above .500 record in the division, and Rivers can continue his outstanding play behind center, the Chargers have a very good shot at reaching the playoffs this year. This isn’t a public move, some of the sharpest bettors I speak to have invested in San Diego futures.

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St. Louis Rams (85/1):
One of the few teams to see a drastic odds change in either direction this year; the Rams were 50/1 before July to grab the Lombardi Trophy. So what happened? Yes, Sam Bradford is out for the year with his second ACL tear. But does backup quarterback Shaun Hill require a 30-cent drop? Let’s dig deeper. Rookie left tackle Greg Robinson has struggled, and guard Rodger Saffold has failed to see any significant time this preseason (injury). The Rams NFC West opponents all bolster quality defensive lines, which could present major problems for OC Brian Schottenheimer, who I’m not a fan of to begin with. Starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson is out 4-6 weeks with an MCL sprain, leaving the secondary scrambling for a quality replacement. Outside of the defensive line, it’s difficult to find talent on this roster. With one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, the Rams may be in a heap of trouble this year. In sports betting, we often hear the phrase; ‘Buy low, Sell high’. Not sure there is a better time to sell St. Louis than right now, Week 1 against a team wiseguys are high on this year in the Minnesota Vikings.

Indianapolis Colts (18/1):
A significant drop from 25/1, the Colts are hopeful that this is their year to challenge for the AFC Title. This move makes sense. Depending on where you shop, the Colts range from (-150 to -190) to win the AFC South and secure a playoff berth. Andrew Luck is primed for another quality season, and with an abundance of talent at the WR/TE position (Hilton, Wayne, Nicks, Allen, Fleener), this offense has Top 5 potential. Though Luck and the offense will likely receive the newspaper clippings, it’s the defense that may be the difference. GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano have worked on the defensive side, bringing in DE Arthur Jones, LB D’Qwell Jackson and S Mike Adams. The Colts also face the mediocre-at-best NFC East, playing the division’s best team (Eagles) at home on MNF. And let’s not forget, their home in the AFC South is likely the weakest division in all of football.