Archives 2014

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Spring training has concluded, the ball is officially rolling on the 2014 MLB season. Getting a feel for teams early on and gauging what a ball club could be capable of relative to perception is imperative for successful MLB betting. Weather your prerogative is to monitor teams throughout the year and hand-pick specific quality betting spots, or you choose the futures market, having a keen understanding of Vegas’ win total projection for each club is a good starting point for bettors to handicap a teams potential.


We’ve identified a few teams whose win projections stand out as having immense betting value, and we’ll attempt to touch upon what could make these opportunities quality investments.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa opened at 87.5 per LVH, 88 per William Hill and 88.5 at Atlantis in Reno. The Rays’ notched 92 wins a season ago despite competing in a division that housed the World Series champion.

There is an expectation that New York and Baltimore should both be improved this year, lending credence to the possibility that the AL East will be an even more difficult division to navigate through. Still, you have to like this number for Tampa if you can get the best of it.
Chris Archer looked incredibly sharp this spring, and we already know what David Price can do. Archer’s potentiality gives Joe Maddon a dynamic pairing to work with atop his rotation. Alex Cobb and Matt Moore really came on in 2013, but Moore did struggle at times in the second half of the year. He finished with a WHIP of 1.30 and went deeper than 5 1/3 only once during September.

The Rays’ youthful rotation could make things interesting later in the year as young arms have a tendency to wear down. Cobb and Moore combined to throw roughly 193 innings a season ago, but the presence of Archer should enable them to stay steady at a similar pace this season.

Offensively, Tampa won’t overwhelm opponents; they finished 11th in runs and 12th in BA a season ago. However, they do a fantastic job of getting on base and have quality role players that seemingly get clutch hits. If 23 year old Wil Myers comes on in his sophomore campaign, Tampa’s lineup will have more than enough to win the A.L. East and eclipse 87.5 wins in the process.

OVER 87.5 WINS

*******

Texas Rangers
Not long ago, Texas had been to consecutive World Series and was the class of the A.L. Heading into 2014, the Rangers look don’t project as high as many would have though.

Betonline sportsbook projects Ron Washington’s crew to win 88 games while LVH and Atlantis come in at 86.5. Texas won 91 a season ago, but they started the month of September 2-12 and while faltering down the stretch prior to missing the playoffs altogether.
The offseason saw them move Ian Kinsler in exchange for Prince Fielder, a shuffle that should leave them stacked with pop at the corners. Shin-Soo Choo was also a quality addition to the lineup and he ensures that they will have a small ball element attached to their approach in addition to enhancing OBPS.

The major concern for Texas is pitching. Outside of Yu Darvish, who is nursing a neck injury late in spring, there’s little in the way of an established mound presence. Martin Perez should continue to grow in what will be his third season in the majors, but this team is going to need a lot more from Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison if they want to survive the A.L. West. Neftali Perez and Tanner Scheppers form the basis of what could be a very strong bullpen, but that group won’t have a chance to shine if the starters fall off significantly.

Even if the Angels fail to meet high expectations, they will be stronger than last year and Oakland boasts a very balanced group overall. Seattle is a team currently being budgeted for a win total in the low 80’s, signaling a potential improvement of 8-10 wins compared to a year ago. The Mariners ranked 3rd in MLB in home runs, unfortunately, there were few base runners when balls cleared the fence. Seattle also had one of the ‘unluckiest’ bullpens – core numbers dictate their ERA should have been nearly a run lower than it actually was.
Improvements for the aforementioned squads likely come at the expense of Texas. I don’t necessarily see this team falling flat on its face, but the potential for them to slide in under 88 wins is certainly feasible.

UNDER 88 WINS

*******

Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been assessed a projection of 89 total wins, and that sort of figure makes the under look more than appealing. This franchise has long been dependent on quality starting pitching and this upcoming season could be the first in some time in which they truly lack that strength.

Kris Medlen is a workhorse who has immense expectation, but was dealing with injury issues recently and it was just announced he underwent Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Beyond Medlen, prospects are scarce. Atlanta must get a decent year from Julio Teheran. OVER 11.5 wins might be a decent prop to look at for the 23 year old who had an impressive campaign in 2013. The second time around for Teheran will be tougher, especially, if he has the weight on his shoulders of being the anchor to this Braves rotation.
Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood round out this group at the moment, but they don’t provide a ton of great news. Minor has been on the DL and is scheduled to make a minor league start soon in the hopes that he can be activated to the major league roster as soon as possible.

Beachy was placed on the 15-day disabled list who looks to be facing a second Tommy John surgery; the losses of him and Medlin are potentially devastating for both their futures and the Braves ball club.

Wood was impressive in spring training and could be a good bet to have a nice season for Atlanta. Still, he’s been little more than a bullpen piece to this point in his career and expecting legitimate success over the course of an entire season will be a tall task.

The rotation is in such shambles that Atlanta turned to thirty-seven-year-old Freddy Garcia, and when that didn’t work, they inked soon to be thirty-six-year-old, Aaron Harang. This team has as dynamic offense at times, but their propensity to be extremely streaky could have the Braves in deep trouble when cold. Lots of boom or bust pieces scattered up and down Atlanta’s lineup with B.J. Upton (Batting .233 his last 2,620 AB’s) and Dan Uggla (.235 his last 2,724 AB’s). In his 5th season, Jason Heyward looks destined for the leadoff spot, a guy who complied 446 strikeouts his first 4 seasons. If the Braves didn’t play in a division that could potentially boast the three worst teams in baseball, they would have zero chance eclipsing their projected win total.

UNDER 89 WINS

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Coming into the 2013-2014 NCAA basketball campaign lots of hype surrounded a massive crop of freshman phenoms. Analysts drooled at the opportunity to talk Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, and Andrew Wiggins any second they could.

Teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Florida, and Duke have come on the scene this year (and in recent seasons) as contenders thanks to elite recruiting classes. Such classes typically center around size and interior power. Just look at Kentucky’s freshman crop this season, it includes 6’9 Julius Randle, seven-footer Dakari Johnson, and a pair of 6’6 guards in the Harrison twins – size feels like everything in the sport of basketball. The last two National Champions have been predicated on inside dominance, and it’s no wonder that coaches from top programs seek size and physicality in recruiting.

In no way should we disregarding the possibility that the largest basketball programs in America could easily find their way to Dallas this year, there’s lots to be said about the importance of guard play and, specifically, on the perimeter. Most fans tend to believe great defense is about shot blockers and rim protectors sending bunnies from penetrating guards into section 107, row 13, but this isn’t about making Sports Center‘s Top 10.

Several teams feature outstanding perimeter defenders, most notably the Ohio State Buckeyes. Thad Matta’s club was undefeated prior to back-to-back conference loses at Michigan State in overtime, and Iowa in Columbus. Despite stubbing their toe, Ohio State’s power rated 4th according to Kenny White’s college basketball power poll.

Aaron Craft leads Ohio State and is the consummate point guard, perhaps the best on-ball defender we’ve seen in years. Craft’s a true student of the game and his style has rubbed off on those around him in Columbus. Shannon Scott has become an elite defender paired with Lenzelle Smith and freshman, Marc Loving, making Ohio State a nightmare for opponents on the outside. The Buckeyes are ranked #1 in defensive efficiency.

Preseason odds featured the Ohio State Buckeyes 30-1 to win it all at BetOnline.ag – number has since dropped to 20-1 and was as low as 12-1 last week.

Another group which saw a similar change in its rankings is the team Craft and Co. knocked out of the big dance a season ago: Arizona. The Wildcats have more interior size than OSU, so we’re not saying they have the same defensive skill on the perimeter. Still, this Arizona team has a combination of length and quickness not easily duplicated.

Nick Johnson and transfer T.J. McConnell are fundamental defenders that communicate well with their bigs. Gabe York and Jordin Mayes are serviceable off the pine and freshman sensation Aaron Gordon is capable of defending every position on the floor. The Wildcats are 12th in defending the three (opponents shooting 28%), and 8th (41%) when it comes to two-point-land. Their gritty road win over a talented Michigan team was testimony to what they are capable of. Trailing the entire game, they locked up late and forced Michigan into difficult shots down the stretch.

Gordon’s presence alongside Brandon Ashley provides Arizona so much flexibility. McConnell, Johnson and company are comfortable switching in virtually any matchup. Drexel, Duke and Michigan all had early success scoring, but when Arizona is focused like they were in each second half of the aforementioned games, they’re a tough nut to crack.

Another team silently threatening to enter elite status is Villanova. Jay Wright has experienced a program resurgence that’s been largely predicated on excellent defense. The Wildcats are not great statistically defending the three ball, but those numbers are distorted due to Syracuse shooting 54% from deep, including; 7 for 11 combined from Cooney and Fair.

Bell, Hilliard and Wright’s other options are committed to the defensive end. Villanova has placed the utmost importance in locking down outside and negating ball penetration at every opportunity, evident by their 11th ranked two-point defense. That, in turn, has led to a more transition-oriented and free flowing offense ranked towards the top of National rankings.

Conference play and March Madness has been special the past years because the gap is closing – games are tight and parity has reared its head. When games become tight, guard play is magnified. Each possession becomes critical and coaches choose to put the ball in the hands of their most efficient players.

Getting to Final Fours and winning comes down to balance, that can’t be understated. While guards can win games late, opposing guards can protect leads late. Teams like Ohio State, Arizona, Villanova, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma State are viable threats to go deep in the postseason thanks to what they bring defensively along the perimeter. Only time will tell if these groups make good on their hopes for late season success, but there’s one group I like the future prospects of moving forward.

NCAA Basketball Futures Bet: Oklahoma State Cowboys 12-1