All posts by Payne Insider

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Spring training has concluded, the ball is officially rolling on the 2014 MLB season. Getting a feel for teams early on and gauging what a ball club could be capable of relative to perception is imperative for successful MLB betting. Weather your prerogative is to monitor teams throughout the year and hand-pick specific quality betting spots, or you choose the futures market, having a keen understanding of Vegas’ win total projection for each club is a good starting point for bettors to handicap a teams potential.


We’ve identified a few teams whose win projections stand out as having immense betting value, and we’ll attempt to touch upon what could make these opportunities quality investments.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa opened at 87.5 per LVH, 88 per William Hill and 88.5 at Atlantis in Reno. The Rays’ notched 92 wins a season ago despite competing in a division that housed the World Series champion.

There is an expectation that New York and Baltimore should both be improved this year, lending credence to the possibility that the AL East will be an even more difficult division to navigate through. Still, you have to like this number for Tampa if you can get the best of it.
Chris Archer looked incredibly sharp this spring, and we already know what David Price can do. Archer’s potentiality gives Joe Maddon a dynamic pairing to work with atop his rotation. Alex Cobb and Matt Moore really came on in 2013, but Moore did struggle at times in the second half of the year. He finished with a WHIP of 1.30 and went deeper than 5 1/3 only once during September.

The Rays’ youthful rotation could make things interesting later in the year as young arms have a tendency to wear down. Cobb and Moore combined to throw roughly 193 innings a season ago, but the presence of Archer should enable them to stay steady at a similar pace this season.

Offensively, Tampa won’t overwhelm opponents; they finished 11th in runs and 12th in BA a season ago. However, they do a fantastic job of getting on base and have quality role players that seemingly get clutch hits. If 23 year old Wil Myers comes on in his sophomore campaign, Tampa’s lineup will have more than enough to win the A.L. East and eclipse 87.5 wins in the process.

OVER 87.5 WINS

*******

Texas Rangers
Not long ago, Texas had been to consecutive World Series and was the class of the A.L. Heading into 2014, the Rangers look don’t project as high as many would have though.

Betonline sportsbook projects Ron Washington’s crew to win 88 games while LVH and Atlantis come in at 86.5. Texas won 91 a season ago, but they started the month of September 2-12 and while faltering down the stretch prior to missing the playoffs altogether.
The offseason saw them move Ian Kinsler in exchange for Prince Fielder, a shuffle that should leave them stacked with pop at the corners. Shin-Soo Choo was also a quality addition to the lineup and he ensures that they will have a small ball element attached to their approach in addition to enhancing OBPS.

The major concern for Texas is pitching. Outside of Yu Darvish, who is nursing a neck injury late in spring, there’s little in the way of an established mound presence. Martin Perez should continue to grow in what will be his third season in the majors, but this team is going to need a lot more from Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison if they want to survive the A.L. West. Neftali Perez and Tanner Scheppers form the basis of what could be a very strong bullpen, but that group won’t have a chance to shine if the starters fall off significantly.

Even if the Angels fail to meet high expectations, they will be stronger than last year and Oakland boasts a very balanced group overall. Seattle is a team currently being budgeted for a win total in the low 80’s, signaling a potential improvement of 8-10 wins compared to a year ago. The Mariners ranked 3rd in MLB in home runs, unfortunately, there were few base runners when balls cleared the fence. Seattle also had one of the ‘unluckiest’ bullpens – core numbers dictate their ERA should have been nearly a run lower than it actually was.
Improvements for the aforementioned squads likely come at the expense of Texas. I don’t necessarily see this team falling flat on its face, but the potential for them to slide in under 88 wins is certainly feasible.

UNDER 88 WINS

*******

Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been assessed a projection of 89 total wins, and that sort of figure makes the under look more than appealing. This franchise has long been dependent on quality starting pitching and this upcoming season could be the first in some time in which they truly lack that strength.

Kris Medlen is a workhorse who has immense expectation, but was dealing with injury issues recently and it was just announced he underwent Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Beyond Medlen, prospects are scarce. Atlanta must get a decent year from Julio Teheran. OVER 11.5 wins might be a decent prop to look at for the 23 year old who had an impressive campaign in 2013. The second time around for Teheran will be tougher, especially, if he has the weight on his shoulders of being the anchor to this Braves rotation.
Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood round out this group at the moment, but they don’t provide a ton of great news. Minor has been on the DL and is scheduled to make a minor league start soon in the hopes that he can be activated to the major league roster as soon as possible.

Beachy was placed on the 15-day disabled list who looks to be facing a second Tommy John surgery; the losses of him and Medlin are potentially devastating for both their futures and the Braves ball club.

Wood was impressive in spring training and could be a good bet to have a nice season for Atlanta. Still, he’s been little more than a bullpen piece to this point in his career and expecting legitimate success over the course of an entire season will be a tall task.

The rotation is in such shambles that Atlanta turned to thirty-seven-year-old Freddy Garcia, and when that didn’t work, they inked soon to be thirty-six-year-old, Aaron Harang. This team has as dynamic offense at times, but their propensity to be extremely streaky could have the Braves in deep trouble when cold. Lots of boom or bust pieces scattered up and down Atlanta’s lineup with B.J. Upton (Batting .233 his last 2,620 AB’s) and Dan Uggla (.235 his last 2,724 AB’s). In his 5th season, Jason Heyward looks destined for the leadoff spot, a guy who complied 446 strikeouts his first 4 seasons. If the Braves didn’t play in a division that could potentially boast the three worst teams in baseball, they would have zero chance eclipsing their projected win total.

UNDER 89 WINS

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Coming into the 2013-2014 NCAA basketball campaign lots of hype surrounded a massive crop of freshman phenoms. Analysts drooled at the opportunity to talk Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, and Andrew Wiggins any second they could.

Teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Florida, and Duke have come on the scene this year (and in recent seasons) as contenders thanks to elite recruiting classes. Such classes typically center around size and interior power. Just look at Kentucky’s freshman crop this season, it includes 6’9 Julius Randle, seven-footer Dakari Johnson, and a pair of 6’6 guards in the Harrison twins – size feels like everything in the sport of basketball. The last two National Champions have been predicated on inside dominance, and it’s no wonder that coaches from top programs seek size and physicality in recruiting.

In no way should we disregarding the possibility that the largest basketball programs in America could easily find their way to Dallas this year, there’s lots to be said about the importance of guard play and, specifically, on the perimeter. Most fans tend to believe great defense is about shot blockers and rim protectors sending bunnies from penetrating guards into section 107, row 13, but this isn’t about making Sports Center‘s Top 10.

Several teams feature outstanding perimeter defenders, most notably the Ohio State Buckeyes. Thad Matta’s club was undefeated prior to back-to-back conference loses at Michigan State in overtime, and Iowa in Columbus. Despite stubbing their toe, Ohio State’s power rated 4th according to Kenny White’s college basketball power poll.

Aaron Craft leads Ohio State and is the consummate point guard, perhaps the best on-ball defender we’ve seen in years. Craft’s a true student of the game and his style has rubbed off on those around him in Columbus. Shannon Scott has become an elite defender paired with Lenzelle Smith and freshman, Marc Loving, making Ohio State a nightmare for opponents on the outside. The Buckeyes are ranked #1 in defensive efficiency.

Preseason odds featured the Ohio State Buckeyes 30-1 to win it all at BetOnline.ag – number has since dropped to 20-1 and was as low as 12-1 last week.

Another group which saw a similar change in its rankings is the team Craft and Co. knocked out of the big dance a season ago: Arizona. The Wildcats have more interior size than OSU, so we’re not saying they have the same defensive skill on the perimeter. Still, this Arizona team has a combination of length and quickness not easily duplicated.

Nick Johnson and transfer T.J. McConnell are fundamental defenders that communicate well with their bigs. Gabe York and Jordin Mayes are serviceable off the pine and freshman sensation Aaron Gordon is capable of defending every position on the floor. The Wildcats are 12th in defending the three (opponents shooting 28%), and 8th (41%) when it comes to two-point-land. Their gritty road win over a talented Michigan team was testimony to what they are capable of. Trailing the entire game, they locked up late and forced Michigan into difficult shots down the stretch.

Gordon’s presence alongside Brandon Ashley provides Arizona so much flexibility. McConnell, Johnson and company are comfortable switching in virtually any matchup. Drexel, Duke and Michigan all had early success scoring, but when Arizona is focused like they were in each second half of the aforementioned games, they’re a tough nut to crack.

Another team silently threatening to enter elite status is Villanova. Jay Wright has experienced a program resurgence that’s been largely predicated on excellent defense. The Wildcats are not great statistically defending the three ball, but those numbers are distorted due to Syracuse shooting 54% from deep, including; 7 for 11 combined from Cooney and Fair.

Bell, Hilliard and Wright’s other options are committed to the defensive end. Villanova has placed the utmost importance in locking down outside and negating ball penetration at every opportunity, evident by their 11th ranked two-point defense. That, in turn, has led to a more transition-oriented and free flowing offense ranked towards the top of National rankings.

Conference play and March Madness has been special the past years because the gap is closing – games are tight and parity has reared its head. When games become tight, guard play is magnified. Each possession becomes critical and coaches choose to put the ball in the hands of their most efficient players.

Getting to Final Fours and winning comes down to balance, that can’t be understated. While guards can win games late, opposing guards can protect leads late. Teams like Ohio State, Arizona, Villanova, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma State are viable threats to go deep in the postseason thanks to what they bring defensively along the perimeter. Only time will tell if these groups make good on their hopes for late season success, but there’s one group I like the future prospects of moving forward.

NCAA Basketball Futures Bet: Oklahoma State Cowboys 12-1

Written By: Richard Salvatori

Opening weekend in the NFL is unlike anything else – excitement and hope is in the air and sitting down to watch the nationally televised game is a trend most fans follow regardless of whether or not their team is involved. Week 1 featured four primetime affairs, starting with Baltimore and Denver Thursday night. Three games followed, all of which blew through bookmaker projections. All four Week 1 primetime games went over the number and did so by an average of 17-points per game. It got me thinking about this specific betting spot in terms of what value primetime games hold given the current state of the NFL.

Just this past Sunday, another marquee NFL matchup, although non-qualifying in terms of being a ‘primetime spot’, saw Denver and Dallas duel to a 51-48 final. This game proved to be just another reminder of the direction in which this league is heading.

That said, the tendency for higher scoring games amongst certain teams is not going unnoticed in Las Vegas. This past week, the Broncos’ total closed as high as 58-points at the Mirage, while last week’s Denver-Philadelphia matchup sported a total as high as 59! This week, four match-ups have totals in the 50’s – an unthinkable proposition just a few short seasons ago. Betting UNDER in games aligned in the 50’s was something the sharpest groups virtually did blind – not anymore. Adapt or die.

When talking totals and primetime games in particular, they offer incredible opportunities for gamblers in general. By the time Thursday night rolls around each week, people everywhere are salivating for action. Each Sunday, after the early games conclude both winners and losers flock to sports books and computers alike in hopes of doubling-up or chasing to get even. Because of that, primetime games offer a market unlike any other. Nowhere else throughout a weekend slate can you find such an event that features game theory and complete market economics in their utmost form. People work off incentives, and if you have a feel for what has transpired during the day, you can often transition that into opportunity.

Looking at primetime games in more detail; opening weekend was so eye-opening because it initially confirmed the tendency for games to sail over. That trend came on strong towards the end of last year and seemed to continue. The fact that the league seems to make an attempt to put its best quarterbacks in the national spotlight, knows these games will be their most viewed, knows the casual fan likes points, potentially instructs officials to call more “offensive-friendly” penalties (pass interference, defensive holding, roughing the passer etc.) lends credence to the notion, but it’s been proven inconclusive thus far.

For arguments sake, we looked at totals for the previous two seasons (as well as 2013) and broke down the data. While this is a very small sample size, it focuses on when the totals market completely shifted. For something like this, gauging totals from 1990 would be completely irrelevant and would skew data.

Season to date, the over is 11-6 (64.7%) in marquee games (7-6 since its opening weekend start of 4-0). During 2012, the over in primetime games finished at 19-28-2 (40.4%), while in 2011 it went 21-20-1 (51.2%). Remember, 52.38% is the break even point on bets placed at -110 vig.

That 2012 statistic is alarmingly telling because it was taken from the year in which it seemed like a plethora of totals went over. That clearly wasn’t the case. More to the point, certain teams specifically seemed to really adhere to that trend (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and New Orleans to name a few) as opposed to the league in general.

Considering the league has made a more widespread attempt to get variety in these primetime spots (Buffalo at Cleveland), it also makes sense that a lot of these games will go under. Jeff Tuel and Brandon Weeden deserve their T.V. time too, I guess.

That said, the data seemed to illustrate these betting markets were not only unique, but also extremely profitable if played the correct way. While there’s some truth to the “marquee quarterback” theory for primetime games, there were also some interesting trends relating to other factors.

Aaron Rodgers is as good a signal caller as there is in this league. As a result, he was thrust into the spotlight five times in 2012. The over in those games: 1-4, with the lone over-victory coming against a weak Texans defense that was still figuring out how to play in the wake of the Brian Cushing injury. Rodgers played division-rival Chicago in Week 2 on a Thursday night; that game went under primarily due to Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offensive line proving completely inept at dealing with Green Bay’s pass rush. Rodgers was also part of the Monday night 14-12 “loss” in Seattle that featured an infamous touchdown call by replacement officials as time expired. The Pack’s Week 12 matchup in New York went under thanks to Green Bay only mustering 10-points as a result of a myriad of serious injuries that limited their offense. They also saw their Sunday night affair at home against Detroit two weeks later fall short by a point in a game that featured heavy snow.

In each situation, factors outside of just the quarterback and their team’s offensive regularities came into play in a huge way. Generally speaking, divisional matchups went under at slightly less than 2-1, a reminder that rivalries tend to bring about tight play and extreme familiarity lending itself to lower scoring.

Moreover, the timing of matchups was also an important consideration. Philadelphia went well over the total in their opener with Washington back in week one, but followed that up with a home bout against Kansas City in week three which saw them play their third game in 11 days (prime under spot).

What does all of this mean? Well, we must continue monitoring, but the notion of primetime OVERS presenting quality betting opportunities has since been thrown out the window after going 48.6% over a 107-game sample size that focuses strictly on the current totals market. That said, each game is its own entity and possess its own set of factors to be considered.

Clearly, the NFL enjoys trotting its biggest names and games out on center stage. That might mean Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning, but in the end, it’s all relative. Sports betting is a market, and whether games are aligned in the 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, and yes, even the 60’s now…at some point the leg-work must be done. Circumstances and factors unbeknownst initially must be dissected for long-term profitability. Just remember, those primetime games will offer value, especially when the betting market is at its most voluminous point.

Written By: Payne Insider

The 2013-2014 NBA season is set to tip Tuesday, October 29th and with that, NBA Win Totals are now available for betting! The Las Vegas SuperBook released their win totals earlier today and the defending champion Miami Heat lead the pack at 60 wins. On the opposite end of the spectrum the Philadelphia 76ers are the lowest team on the totem pole with 16.5. The Knicks’ open at 49.5 wins and the Lakers’ at 33.5 wins.

Here’s the complete list of 2013-2014 NBA Win Totals:

ATLANTA HAWKS 40.0
BOSTON CELTICS 27.5
BROOKLYN NETS 52.5
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 27.5
CHICAGO BULLS 56.5
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 40.5
DALLAS MAVERICKS 44.0
DENVER NUGGETS 47.0
DETROIT PISTONS 41.0
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 49.5
HOUSTON ROCKETS 54.5
INDIANA PACERS 53.5
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 57.0
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 33.5
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 49.0
MIAMI HEAT 60.0
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 28.5
MINNESOTA T-WOLVES 41.0
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 40.0
NEW YORK KNICKS 49.5
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 50.5
ORLANDO MAGIC 24.5
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 16.5
PHOENIX SUNS 21.5
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 38.5
SACRAMENTO KINGS 31.5
SAN ANTONIO SPURS 55.5
TORONTO RAPTORS 36.5
UTAH JAZZ 27.5
WASHINGTON WIZARDS 42.0

NOTE: TEAMS MUST PLAY 82 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION

Written By: Todd Fuhrman – Former Oddsmaker
Thoughts From: Payne Insider – Professional Sports Bettor

“Always ignore the boos, they usually come from the cheap seats.”

Pros vs Joes isn’t meant to piss you off…but it can’t guarantee you go undefeated either. It’s not meant to tell you that your bets are dead before the game is played just because they’re “square” or “public” (only Cubs futures fall into this subset). Rather Pros vs Joes weekly tweets are meant to inform like every other piece of content you read on social media. They’re a glimpse into the wallet of the professional to know how he or she has approached the betting card for the weekend by beating the market and taking a position on a game. The misconception that you have to bet dogs to be sharp or avoid road favorites to think like a professional is nearly as antiquated as the original iPhone. Tweets aren’t meant to say fading the public is the only sure fire way to win betting the NFL; although, it’s never a bad idea to be on the other side of the masses when there’s huge volume on a game.

No, Pros vs Joes is a tool you can use to aid your handicapping when that last game on a card may or may not make the cut. To all those out there (and they’re only a handful) that choose to troll and root against sides “just because,” your ignorance shows through unless you’re in possession of a ticket on the other side. Always remember blogs and twitter give you the option to read and follow whoever you’d like…don’t read content from anyone if all it does is get your blood boiling early Sunday mornings.

Pros vs Joes aren’t even the games you bet, but rather the numbers you take. Pros can move on a side +1, but what makes someone a Joe is if they bet that same game -3. It’s not a knock, but it can be the difference between winning and losing which is why turning a profit from this pursuit is always challenging.

Payne’s Thoughts…

Former Vegas oddsmaker, Todd Fuhrman touched many key components to the “Sharps” vs “Squares,” or in this case; “Pros” vs “Joes” battle that takes place daily. It’s always important to remember WHERE and WHY backlash rears its ugly head. Typically, it stems from jealousy and agendas, or just a fan with a bad tattoo of his favorite teams’ mascot. How dare you insinuate someones favorite team might not fair well come Sunday! Johnny and the boys are coming over and I’m making my good luck bean dip – no way our Cowboys lose!

The difference between the bettor forced to punch a time clock come Monday, and a professional bettor can be as little as 3% at year’s end. Just because the loud, drunk at the bar wearing his Ricky Waters jersey that’s now two-sizes too small defied the odds of a one-game-sample-size cashing his Seahawks -1.5 bet this weekend, doesn’t mean he’s going to be successful long-term opposing the Pros. In fact, if he did it enough times over a long enough sample size he’ll be cozied up under his local bridge.

At the same time, the idea of Pros and Joes clashing on EVERY single game is just inaccurate. It’s a bookmakers nightmare when it happens, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games daily. Last night, the Pros laid 5 and 5.5 with the Saints’ early in the week. Joes continued down that path with reckless abandon laying 7 thirty minutes before kickoff. Just because you happen to be on the same side as the Pros doesn’t make you sharp, you will never win more games laying 7 than you will 5.5, but Pros and Joes are on the same sides of games frequently. Over the course of 365-days that 1.5-points of lost edge could be the difference between a bettor hitting 51.5% and 54.5%. Punching a time clock or being a profitable bettor.

In the end, the information provided is to help YOU, the bettor. It’s also up to YOU, the bettor to distinguish the difference between information and information WITH VALUE. Being cognizant of the difference is pertinent to deciphering winning information from losing. Take a step back, open your mind, and realize that the sharpest bettors money doesn’t have a team logo. They’re buying teams (betting on) one week and selling (betting against) the next. The sharpest bettors have no bias, they’re only goal is to see their bottom line increase.