All posts by Payne Insider

Written By: Richard Salvatori

With the season kicking off in days we’ll address injuries, roster turnover, coaching changes, all while determining which teams present the best PLAY and FADE spots to bet during the infant stages of the 2013-2014 NFL season. Schedule analysis is pertinent to any such inquiry, and a sound understanding of perception as it relates to various teams will also prove handy. If you haven’t printed off a season schedule identifying spots for each team, each week, you’re behind. Take a deep breath, don’t sweat it, we have you covered for the first quarter of the season.


Week 1:

Opening weekend of football season is incredibly interesting for a few reasons: Media figureheads think they have teams figured out, but there’s always a team or three that shock early and disappoint even more as the season progresses. Last season, it was the Arizona Cardinals that got off to a scorching start winning their first four games including; wins over the Seahawks’ and Patriots. Arizona proceeded to lose nine in a row, and eleven of their final twelve.

Additionally, spreads provided by sports books can be inefficient early in the season, but oddsmakers are keeping numbers reasonably tight week one. Thursday’s season opener between Denver and Baltimore represented the largest number on the board (+/- 8) before news broke that Jeff Tuel could potentially start under center versus New England.

The Cardinals’ have become one of the most talked about teams this off-season given the changes made and how the Over/Under has significantly increased on their expected win total. Arizona’s win total opened 5, it currently resides at 5.5 with the OVER juiced at -160. Whether it’s Bruce Arians’ emotion that revitalizes Arizona’s franchise, or the fact that blindly betting teams OVER their posted win total when aligned at 6 or less would’ve resulted in bettors cashing 67% of the time since 2000 – and more impressively, 79% the last three season seem to be the reason for increased optimism.

The Rams’ were a team in 2012 that far exceeded bookmaker expectations beating the spread in five of their first six outings and proved that a capable defense and balanced offense with a new regime pays dividends. If you’re sharp, St. Louis’ early success a season ago shouldn’t have been shocking: teams coming off a season below 30% against the spread, are 55.2% against the spread the first six weeks of the following season – the Rams’ were just 3-12-1 ATS in 2011.

St. Louis’ makeover has focused on upgrading the offensive-line in addition to adding weapons at receiver. Despite being on the backend of his career, the loss of Steven Jackson could be tough to make up for. Arizona has questions on defense (replacing Adrian Wilson and dealing with the loss of Darryl Washington the first four games). Still, the line seemed inflated at +6. It’s since dropped to +5 where it currently resides at the LVH Super Book. Despite the injury to Jonathan Cooper, +5 still has value, but taking it certainly means your edge has decreased slightly.

Week Two:

Indianapolis gets the Dolphins’ at home in week two and as it stands now; the Colts’ are a short favorite. Miami will come off a week one dog-fight in Cleveland, while Indy has a layup against the dysfunctional organization that is the Oakland Raiders. It might not be smooth sailing for Andrew Luck in his second year given the Colts’ massive defensive issues, but this game is ideal for his Colts.

Indianapolis threw the ball all over Miami in week nine last season. Luck finished with 433 yards, and it launched the Dolphins’ into a tailspin losing four out of their next five, effectively, eliminating them from playoff contention. The Colts’ were 4th in the NFL a season ago in yards per possession, Miami checked in at 19. Luck and Co. dominated time of possession, and if Miami becomes more pass happy in 2013 like they’ve discussed, this game could result in a similar outcome. Where this game will be decided is in the red-zone, the Dolphins’ ranked #1 in the NFL allowing teams to score touchdowns just 42.59% of the time inside the 20. On the other side, the Colt’s were in the bottom third of the NFL converting for touchdowns when Luck and his offense crept into the red-zone.

No question Miami has upgraded their pass rush and secondary, but is it enough? Most prognosticators expect regression from Indy and progression from Miami this season, but Andrew Luck and his Colts have earned the right to be a full three point favorite at Lucas Oil Stadium against a team like Miami – strictly a value play here.

Week Three:

Cleveland has the makings of a team that could improve greatly with just average play under center in 2013. Yes, the AFC North poses challenges, but that doesn’t mean improvement isn’t realistic for the Browns’.

Their trip to Minnesota in week three seems to be inflated, specifically, after back-to-back road division games. I know it’s a home-opener for the Vikings’, but 6.5-point underdogs versus a team sharp bettors have been selling all off-season is extreme. Obviously, I would encourage buying onto the key number of +7.

Cleveland’s defense is interesting, specially, with the off-season upgrades. Barring anything extreme, Joe Haden will be around for all 16 games. How great is Haden’s impact? The Browns’ surrendered 414.8 yards per game without Haden in the lineup, just 341.5 when he was suited up. Just how significant is that differential? At 414.8 yards per game that would’ve ranked Cleveland 31st in the NFL in 2013, at 341.5 yards per game, they would’ve ranked 12th.

Brandon Weeden is responsible for the aforementioned needed improvement under center if Cleveland wants to take off. Minnesota could assist him, as they ranked 23rd against the pass in 2012. The advancement of Harrison Smith and the acquisition of Xavier Rhodes should improve this maligned secondary for the Vikings’, but it could take some time.

Regardless, anything exceeding six for this game feels high. Barring injuries the first two weeks, my TRUE NUMBER on this game is 4.25, having the ability to buy to the second largest key number of 7 would be a +EV investment in my mind.

Week Four:

The Dallas Cowboys open the season hosting their rival, New York Giants under the lights on Sunday Night football (currently a 3-point favorite) before traveling to Kansas City in week two and getting the Rams at home in week three.

How Dallas comes out of that three game stretch (favored in all three) is a mystery, but if the point spread is any indicator the trip to San Diego week four could be treated as a vacation before a home date with Peyton Manning’s Broncos and back-to-back division games versus the Redskins’ and Eagles.

The following serves to summarize Dallas’ recent trips to the west coast during the early months of the season:

9/16/2012: Seattle 27, Dallas 7
9/18/2011: Dallas 27, San Francisco 24
10/4/2009: Denver 17, Dallas 10

Not much to take away, but I’m higher than most on the Chargers’. I think they’ll be a team that reinvents themselves with Mike McCoy – starting strong has been stressed and will be important for a team that struggled early under the Norv Turner regime.

A year ago, Atlanta dominated the Chargers in San Diego during an early September visit. The Chargers entered that game 2-0 and were three point favorites. I’m higher on San Diego as I alluded to, and Dallas isn’t close to Atlanta in our power ratings. The look-ahead line is San Diego -1 for this week four contest, and at that price you have to strongly consider an investment.

Written By: PayneInsider
Assist From: JustinZovas
Hockey Assist From: So_Money_Sports

The NFL preseason is in full swing. Anticipation for Thursday, September 5th is palpable. But with that comes a bevy of talking-heads and typically, those talking-heads spew drivel. Being able to decipher information, from information WITH VALUE can be a daunting task this time of year. An endless amount of sports betting trends will invade your Twitter timeline. Airwaves will be polluted Friday’s with handicappers revealing “information” like: the Giants’ are 7-1 ATS their last 8 Sunday night games when the temperature is below 71 degrees AND THERE’S A FULL MOON! For whatever reason, and it’s extremely sickening, that kind of information ‘moves the dial’. Reality is; that tidbit is worth less than the pocket lint you just found in your favorite pair of cargo shorts.


Finding trends that are real, trends you can touch, trends you can feel are the kind of trends that have predictive value. One situation I discuss every NFL preseason has the aforementioned elements: Teams that played in the Hall of Fame game are 34-16-3 (68%) ATS their 2nd preseason game versus a team making its preseason debut. The team with a preseason game under its belt has worked more kinks out, acclimated themselves to in-game situations, has a better idea of position battles, and most of all, teams tend to play starters longer in game two than game one.

That said; all betting trends should be used as a starting point, and not the sole reason for investing. Moreover, the preseason situation mentioned above will reach a point where there’s no longer value. Books will catch on, and not only adjust their numbers for that situation, but likely over-adjust to where value teeters to the opposing side. Situational bettors tend to be like bulls; head down, charging forward, and with little to no regard. They blow through dead end signs and fail to realize that at some point they’re investing in over-adjusted situations.

Each summer I attempt to uncover a few NFL trends for specific situations that hopefully encompass the aforementioned predictive value. Unfortunately, a situation I wholeheartedly felt data would support fell extremely short. The ATS trend for this specific situation in question is: Teams off of a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent. You can feel this trend, you can touch this trend, it’s real.

I expected to find a “letdown spot” bettors could fade for the team off a division win, on the road, and a “play on spot” bettors could invest in for the non-conference home team. After all, Team A faced a division rival in a hotly contested game. Practice was more intense than usual that week. Team A won a physical division game. Human nature takes place and Team A feels good about themselves, complacency sets in after a big win (fat and happy). Team A looks at the schedule for the following week and it’s on the road versus a non-conference opponent. Energy at practice for Team A isn’t anywhere close to the previous week when preparing to face their divisional rival – focus is immensely lacking.

Well…

Since 1989, teams off a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent are 166-152-15 (52.2%). This was absolutely shocking. Obviously, 52.38% is your break even point at -110, so this isn’t profitable, but it was mind-blowing to see that much success in a perceived “let down situation”. I fully expected this to be a profitable “fade situation,” but in the last 23 seasons, it would have yielded a 47.8% win rate.

It’s great to classify certain situations and spots, but they must be backed up with cold, hard facts. I hear all too often about fading teams in this specific situation, and it simply doesn’t hold water. Like any trend, even if it yields a profitable betting situation, it should only be the starting point for deeper analysis.

Written By: Billy Attridge

With the NFL season about to kick off, many recreational gamblers are scurrying to gather as much information and data on all 32 teams as possible. Despite being late to the party, there is still an effective way to evaluate a team’s performance from the previous year using rudimentary mathematics. When analyzing a team’s expected win percentage or games won, the Pythagorean Theorem can be a hidden gem if utilized correctly. At the conclusion of every NFL season, this simple mathematical formula can propel a sports bettor in the right direction when determining a team’s actual performance compared to what was observed on television throughout the year.

Using a team’s Points For and Points Against; we can come up with an expected win total. (PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2)) gives us a sound number of wins expected per game. For example, the Atlanta Falcons scored 419 points and allowed 299 during the 2012-2013 season. Plugging the numbers into the above equation, we see Atlanta averaged 0.66259 wins every 1 game played. Multiplying that by 16 gives us an expected win total for the regular season. Atlanta, based on those stats, ought to have won approximately 10.6 games last year. We can make this number even stronger by analyzing a team’s Turnover Margin.

Joe Fortenbaugh, of the National Football Post, put together some excellent charts detailing NFL success both Straight Up and Against The Spread from 2002-2011 based on Turnover Differential. Adhering to the premise that 80 percent of turnovers are random, teams that have poor Turnover Margins generally improve, and vice versa. Using 3.2 as a value for a single turnover, multiplying it by a team’s Turnover Margin gives us the number of points generated by Turnovers. So, using Atlanta (+13 TO) as our example, we see they benefited from 41.6 “Turnover” points. Subtracting this from our ‘PF’, our new equation shows that Atlanta should have won approximately 9.83 games in 2012 – that’s low compared to the 13 regular season wins obtained. One other team that has caught the interest of sports bettors in the past month has been the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ suffered from an abysmal -24 Turnover Differential (only recovered 33% of Fumbles!), and based on our formula, played like a five win football club (5.03). They won 2 games, and in only one contest last year did they have a positive Turnover Margin.

How can this information help us in the future? While sharps have sucked virtually all the value out of Season Win Totals at this point, the NFL provides a unique opportunity due to the influx of public money in the marketplace. While Kansas City has the attention of wiseguys and the public, there may be opportunities to fade Atlanta early in the season. After all, the Falcons’ had six games with a Turnover Margin of +3 or greater, the most in the NFL. They recovered over 64% of Fumbles last year, second highest in the league. With the NFC South looking extremely competitive this year, a regression for Atlanta would not be shocking.

It must be noted that the above formulas are a great starting point for handicapping, but it’s just a small piece of the puzzle. Sports bettors must be cognizant of injuries, coaching change, style adjustments and strength of schedule when focusing on win totals. Incorporating different types of analysis is vital to succeed in the sports betting industry.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Sports betting success relies greatly on beating the closing number. The goal for any type of marketplace investor, gamblers included, should be entering the market at the optimal time. Getting the best price is one of the most indicative signs of a successful, long-term, profitable investor or sports bettor.


One of the main ingredients to “beating the close” is preparation. Having your own set of point spreads created before the market opens is essential. Your pre-made lines should not only include power ratings but situations, scheduling spots, trends with value and any other information acquired from coaches and players that may affect a team’s performance. If a sports bettor fails to have confidence in his or her preparation, how can one expect to enter the market with a long-term edge? It’s unrealistic to beat the closing line every bet, but your goal should be 70-80% of the time your money enters the market, you’re getting the best of it. Whether it’s a drastic 1.5-point move in a college basketball game, laying -3 (-105) in a football game that closes -3 (-130), or .10 cents in a baseball game, you must get the best of it to stand a chance long-term.

An excellent example of conviction, or lack thereof, was this past March where public darling, #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast challenged their in-state foe, #3 Florida Gators. Florida Gulf Coast shocked the World beating both Georgetown and San Diego State – recreational bettors were lining up to back the Eagles’. Sharp bettors with accurate power numbers created before the NCAA Tournament likely made Florida a 16-17 point favorite. The opening number that hit the board was Florida -11. The prepared, confident, savvy, well-equipped sports investor jumped all over Florida -11 and -11.5. Hesitant sports bettors lacking confidence wait for their opinions to be confirmed by the market, and in this instance, grabbed Florida -12, -12.5, and -13. It’s ok to gauge the market wrong 20-30% of the time, but if you’re waiting for the market to confirm your opinion (chasing steam) you have absolutely no chance. The line closed Florida -13. The final score was Florida 62-50. Those that fired Florida -11 with conviction at open, WON. Those that waited until the market confirmed their position and felt comfortable entering the market and grabbed -12.5 or -13, LOST.

Bettors lose their edge with every penny they surrender by entering the market at wrong times – market reading is crucial. Fully understanding the edge on a specific game and deciding how the market will react to the posted number is imperative. The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills Week 1 in the upcoming season. Betonline opened New England 5-point road favorites. Your handicap sets the number at New England -3.5. Let’s play Buffalo +5, right? Wrong. Despite recent events, New England consistently receives the majority of public bets. Buffalo is viewed as a doormat. Five (+5/-5) is a “dead number” in the NFL and the worst case scenario is; it goes to 4.5. In which case, you take +4.5 with little to no value lost. The line currently sits at 7 across the board, a far more advantageous price for Buffalo bettors.

Confidence in your preparation and handicapping is the long-term difference between professional bettors and those forced to make sports betting a hobby. Have conviction in what you do and don’t hesitate to fire!

Struggling NBA franchises will have their fate decided by ping pong balls at 8:30 p.m. ET this evening from the Millennium Hotel in Times Square. Teams will learn where they’ll be picking in the 2013 NBA Draft moments before solid franchises tip for game 2 of the Western Conference finals.

The NBA Lottery hasn’t been won by the team with the worst record (most ping pong balls/best chance) since 2004, when the Magic’ used the number one pick to select Dwight Howard. That same Orlando franchise has the best odds (25% chance) to earn the top pick in this years NBA Draft.

Mathematical odds of the 14-non-playoff teams to win the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery:

Scandal at The Mothership! ESPN aired yesterday’s edition of First Take, and boy, was there some controversy. No, Skip and Stephen weren’t arguing about worldly matters like Tim Tebow performing circumcisions in his spare time.

Like most Americans, I was watching but not really paying attention, and then . . . what sounded like, no, it couldn’t be. YES! The fart heard ’round the world!

At the :20 second mark, one of three suspects; Stephen A. Smith, Cari Champion or Skip Bayless decided to play the anal acoustics. Pass gas. Let one rip. Cut the cheese. Bottom burp. Airbrush their undershorts.

Where Fart Gate takes place is when the segment re-aired later in the day, there was no combustion of epic proportion. Where there was once a fart, there is no more fart. Thus in lies, First Take FART GATE!

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The NFL Draft combined with regime changes allow for prognosticators and pundits alike to get a true sense of how the league is reshaping. There’s still much to do with free agents roaming the market, rookie camp, OTA’s etc., but it isn’t too early to get an idea of how oddsmakers and the gambling community view squads right now.

Using Atlantis Casino 2013 Win Totals this is a group of teams that has the potential to make you money simply based on their current perception relative to win projection.


Jacksonville Jaguars Projected Win Total: Over 4.5 (-140)

The Jaguars’ were abysmal in 2012, ranking near the cellar in virtually every statistical category. Jacksonville will come into the 2013 season with low expectations, but there’s a lot to consider regarding their off-season – many positives.

For starters, the Jaguars have new ownership, which should typically be viewed as a positive development. Gus Bradley was brought in to coach this group, an exciting change considering his past work in reviving the Seattle Seahawks defensive unit in recent years.

Bradley is a fierce competitor, and he made a clear cut effort to find individuals in this year’s draft who seem to share such traits with him. Even current roster members have commented how different (for the better) things have been.

Luke Joekel might be the best player in this class; he fortifies an offensive line that struggled a season ago. Jonathan Cyprien is more than just a safety from a small school; he’s a well built and instinctive player who flies to the ball. The Jaguars’ decision to grab him in the early second reminded me of the Detroit Lions taking Louis Delmas in a similar spot back in 2010.

Jacksonville didn’t stop there; they picked up a pair of speedy playmakers in Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson, both of whom should provide depth at wide-out behind Justin Blackmon. Joshua Evans is also a safety who could see action in some capacity for this secondary.

This roster should be deeper under Gus Bradley, and considering where he is coming from, I’d expect a more run-heavy scheme on offense. Maurice Jones Drew played just six games a season ago; getting back 47.7% of their total offensive production is a great start.

This will be a make-or-break year for Blaine Gabbert, but many suggest he simply needs more time in the pocket. Gabbert ranked in the top third of NFL quarterbacks when given 2.6 seconds or more to throw. Over 58% of Gabbert’s throws came at or under 2.5 seconds to throw. Eugene Monroe is one of the leagues best, the aforementioned addition of Joekel, and second-year man Mike Brewster who was thrown into the fire as an undrafted rookie should help give Blaine time so the front office can assess what they have under center.

When breaking down the schedule landscape you have to consider their division. It’s fair to think the Colts’ with their -30 point differential in 2012-2013 will regress, and there’s very limited expectations regarding Tennessee. This Jaguars team hung tough with Houston in their second matchup last year, it’s not crazy to think they could grab three divisional games.

The non-divisional games include the Chiefs’, Cardinals and Bills at home, with road dates against the likes of Oakland and Cleveland. Getting to six or even seven wins wouldn’t be shocking. If you believe Jacksonville can alter its identity successfully in season one of the Bradley era, they’re worth a look. When you factor in that blindly betting overs with teams aligned at 6 wins or less has produced a 34-16-1 (.680) record since 2002, it makes betting the Jaguars’ OVER 4.5 wins all the more appealing.

San Diego Chargers Projected Win Total: Over 7 (+100)

Speaking of coaching/G.M. changes, the Bolts’ underwent a much needed transformation this off-season, and it can only elevate their chances of success when you rid yourself of a guy like Norv Turner.

San Diego’s offense was horrific last season. Their ground game and offensive line play lacked any explosiveness and Philip Rivers simply didn’t have weapons around him to gain consistent yardage. Antonio Gates is a step slower, yet still productive. The unveiling of Danario Alexander at midseason was helpful, yet short lived. Keenan Allen is a supreme talent who saw character questions and injury concerns slot him two-rounds later than he should’ve been selected. D.J. Fluker is a monster of a tackle and he should be able to provide Rivers tremendous support immediately having been under the tutelage of Nick Saban for four years.

Defense was strong last season for San Diego, but losing Takeo Spikes is a blow. Manti T’eo is a first round talent who landed in the second round. He presents good value and should start immediately.

However, the Chargers are tough to handicap because their schedule could be daunting as they draw the AFC South and NFC East. Still, they are being projected as likely landing around 6.5 or 7 wins. They should be the second best team in their division (the Chiefs’ will push them), that alone could be good enough for 7 or 8 wins, and because of that I think an even 7 presents value. The Chargers’ haven’t won less than 7 games since 2003, and I don’t see this season being any different.

Pittsburgh Steelers Projected Wins Total: Under 10 (+100)

The Steelers’ enter 2013 as a curious case. On one hand, their recent struggles and lack of efficiency at the end of games in 2012 make you think they’ll surely turn it around given the consistency of the franchise. Add in the fact that they had what is being seen as a great draft and they should be back, right?

The good news is their schedule opens as follows: vs. TEN, @CIN, vs. CHI, @MIN, BYE, @NYJ. However, Pittsburgh has road dates later in the year with New England, Baltimore, Green Bay, and they travel to Oakland, a place where they’ve struggled recently.

This team has a myriad of concerns, with age being at the forefront. Their front seven should likely hold up fine, especially with the addition of Jarvis Jones to play outside in the 3-4, but their inability to address secondary needs is catching up with them in a league that is becoming more pass-heavy by the minute.

Offensively, their tackle situation is a concern. Marcus Gilbert leaves a lot to be desired and while Mike Adams is gifted in the run game, he struggle mightily against above average pass rushers when forced to play on the left side.

This team may very well eclipse the 10-win mark, but the metrics used cap their total at 9. We’ve grown accustomed to this franchise always being in the mix, and an improved run game behind the addition of LeVeon Bell combined with a more balanced attack overall could certainly help that cause. However, I see too many issues with their secondary, offensive line and an over-dependency on Ben Roethlisberger to carry Steeler Nation. Pittsburgh might have a bounce-back season, but all signs point to this number being inflated due to decades of pristine perception.

Written By: @ToddFuhrman

We’ve all been there before: stuck racking our brain with how to structure monies on a Saturday when 15 plays across 4 sports appear too good to pass up. Let me quiet a myth right now: there’s no fixed number of games to play but a bettor should always be cognizant of how much liability is being extended at any given time. I know this seems somewhat counter-intuitive for those just learning the ropes; however, like every other lesson in sports gambling, it will make sense in time as your experience grows and leads us to the discussion of units: the case for and against flat betting.


Bettors talk about unit count all the time to keep tabs on their results. It’s an effective way to share with friends and members of the gambling community relative strength of each play without disclosing how much makes up an actual bet. Units should rarely be weighted the same across all sports since every bettor has his or her strengths and needs to strike from an advantaged position. The reality of sports betting is the better you become, the harder it is to get down large amounts anywhere, let alone in the smaller niche markets (WNBA, AFL, Golf, NASCARR). However, I digress a bit from my main thesis of trying to make a case for and against the merits of flat betting no matter the sport, no matter the streak, and no matter the strength of the play.

You know what it feels like; staring at a game all week you knew was worth way more than just a single play but you didn’t pull the trigger because of “sound money management principles.” Talk to the elite gamblers in the world and they’ll be the first to tell you recognizing the edge, knowing when to take shots, separates the best from the rest. There’s a reason Billy Walters wagers $25,000 one game and $3,000,000 the next. INCREASED EDGE! Over the course of a calendar year, a handful of situations present themselves and no bettor should be shackled by the normal tenants of traditional money management. Assessing your positions should be going on throughout the year, always seeking an opportunity to make larger bets when the confluence of handicapping angles all align themselves.

Math says the sheer volume of plays it requires to flat bet games doesn’t make the strategy financially viable over the long term unless you have a hefty bankroll. Hypothetically, let’s figure you make 2,000 bets a year for a dime ($1,000) per bet. Knowing the gold standard for handicapping is 60%, we’ll figure for argument’s sake our bettor hits 58% of wagers which places them in the 99.9 percentile. Rather than account for money lines, exotics, futures, etc. we’ll assume standard 11/10 juice for each wager made.

2,000 wagers x 1,100 per wager = 2,200,000 total annual risk.

Winning 58% of your bets leaves you with a record of 1160 – 840 which won’t account for a handful of pushes and other assorted outcomes.
With these numbers, your potential annual net income is (1160*1000) – (840*1100) = 320,000. Not a bad little living if you can swing it.

Now if your win percentage drops to 54%, the math looks very different: (1080*1000) – (920*1100) = 160,000.

If you’ve stayed with me this long you obviously can extrapolate results and figure out exactly what the net looks like for a $100, $250, $500 bettor. Without over simplifying, a drop of 1% in your annual win percentage creates a net change of roughly 40,000!

Why is this important? The reality is if you can identify winning spots 54% of the time at minimum (52.4% is the break even point), you should be able to effectively locate opportunities that call for 2x, 3x, and maybe even 5x your normal wager. Traditionally, I believe the more junior you are in betting sports, flat betting makes the most fiscal sense. It allows you to avoid huge volatile swings from differentiated units and can protect you from going on tilt or over extending yourself at the wrong time. Additionally, most recreational bettors have a difficult time identifying their edge. Part of the strategy behind flat betting is that it doesn’t place added emphasis on must win games over others; you just determine if a situation warrants a wager and your amount to bet is standardized.

From my experience, figuring out the sports where you have an edge is the turning point in a gambler’s evolution. Keeping accurate records for actual dollars won/lost (you can’t take units to the bank) and itemized accounting means you’re ready to take sports gambling more seriously. It’s not for everyone and I’ll never say it is, so for those who want to be taken seriously by their peers or want to be honest with themselves, your bank roll serves as the only scoreboard you’ll ever need.

When it comes to betting sports for keeps, the best bettors in the world know when it’s time to take shots. For those looking to stay in the game a long time and approach more casually, flat betting can be your friend. Setting realistic goals and knowing your objectives will always help you make the best financial decisions in any market.

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The 2012-2013 season has been in the books for over a month now, and we are finally beginning to see the future take shape around the country. Personnel changes in the form of transfers and recruiting will play a big role as always, and it’s never too early to start considering who will benefit most.


1. Illinois Fighting Illini

John Groce moved from Ohio to Illinois to take over the Fighting Illini, and he did a solid job year one. Second round exit in the NCAA tournament at the hands of Miami has to be viewed as at least a mildly successful season for a first year coach, but losing three key seniors will sting for Illinois moving forward.

In early May, Darius Paul, the younger brother of Brandon, announced his intentions to transfer to Champaign and follow in big bro’s footsteps. Paul was the MAC Freshman of the year last season at Western Michigan, and he brings size and athleticism on the interior with him.
Paul joins Illinois State forward John Ekey and Seton Hall guard Aaron Crosby as the latest installments in the future of Illinois basketball. Ekey will be available immediately as he is pursuing a graduate degree not offered at Illinois State. He made 18 starts for the Redbirds a season ago and provides size.

Crosby leaves Seton Hall after an abysmal season in which he served as one of the lone bright spots for the Pirates. He’s an aggressive and quick guard who can hit from the outside but most importantly, provides ball-handling and leadership for a group that lost a ton at the guard position in the wake of graduation.
Crosby will have to sit out next year according to NCAA guidelines, but he will be eligible to practice with a team that will feature 5 incoming freshman within a class that is ranked number 17th nationally by ESPN. The Illini also boast two additional transfers from a season ago who will be eligible to play this year.

While Illinois will still certainly be young in 2013-2014, the plethora of talent heading to Champaign is apparent. Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State have to be considered conference heavyweights at this point, but the conference as a whole should be down next season, which could allow for the Illini to make another run come March.

2. California Golden Bears

The Golden Bears made tremendous strides in 2013, and they gave Syracuse a massive scare despite shooing 19% from three in the NCAA tournament before being bounced.

Mike Montgomery is a known commodity and proven winner. His roster will experience some turnover given the loss of Allen Crabbe and Robert Thurman, two of the Bears’ most reliable pieces, but with Justin Cobbs back, he’ll be set at the most important lineup slot: point guard.
The expected growth of rising senior Richard Solomon and the defensive attributes of junior-to-be David Kravish, and the Bears are very unlikely to fall flat on their face come November.

Jabari Bird is an Oakland native who, at 6’6, can play both shooting guard and small forward. He possesses good range and explosiveness, and he could make Cal fans forget about Crabbe sooner than later.

Kameron Rooks is still a raw prospect hailing from the southern part of the state, at a seven-footer with a wealth of upside. He won’t have to play right away and can add depth to Montgomery’s front court rotation.

Ricky Kreklow never quite fit in the way one would hope in year one following his transfer from Missouri, but he played well in the NCAA tournament and should see a major increase in minutes this year as the only other experienced point guard on the roster.
Arizona should still be the dominant group in the Pac-12 and many will assume Cal falls off in the wake of their departures, but I’d keep an eye on Cal.

3. Tennessee Volunteers

Yes, the Kentucky Wildcats have reloaded and look to be nothing short of dominant next year bringing in a recruiting class for the ages. Additionally, the Gators’, while losing a few bodies, will be even stronger inside for 2013-2014.
That said; Tennessee is a team that could make major headway in the SEC next year after a disappointing finish last season. Their key issues coming into the off-season center around the depth of a roster that had been more or less decimated following program violations after Bruce Pearl’s departure.

Incoming shooting guard Robert Hubbs is the fourth ranked prospect at that position according to ESPN, and A.J. Davis of Norcross, GA is a 6’6 small forward with good versatility. The two together were expected to add that missing depth.

There’s been some messy news out of Knoxville that Trae Golden, the Volunteer’s steady hand at the point for the last few years, will be transferring out. Head Coach Cuonzo Martin states it was due to academic reasons (including plagiarism), but many believe Golden was forced out of Tennessee by Martin due to the lack of available scholarships. Regardless of reason, it’s a huge loss as Golden registered 30 minutes or more in the Vols’ final nine games of the 2012-2013 season. He had more turnovers than assists in only 6 games all year, a telling stat considering the fact he played the position so extensively. This loss could be crippling for a program hoping to take a big step forward in what will be Cuonzo Martin’s third year at Tennessee.

4. Oregon Ducks

Yes, Tony Woods Arsalan Kazemi, E.J. Singler and Carlos Emory are all gone, and it’s unlikely they will be replaced quickly, but Dana Altman will catch a break by grabbing Mike Moser from UNLV in a rather unexpected turn of events.

Moser will graduate now and become eligible immediately. Moser is an incredibly talented player who battled injuries and lack of production while sitting behind stud freshman Anthony Bennett a year ago. Moving up to the northwest and getting the chance to play with Dominic Artis in a conference that generally lacks great defense should be helpful for him.

Oregon has their share of question marks, but they have seven commits coming in for the 2013-2014 season, including; Jordan Bell of Long Beach and A.J. Lapray, both of whom will help along the frontline.

They also get two brothers from San Diego in Tyree and Terrell Robinson, adding further depth to an already stacked backcourt. The Ducks’ will be somewhat thin across the frontline, but Moser can make up for that, and when you think about this conference, no one outside of ‘Zona has great depth in that area.

5. Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Gophers’ started its off-season by grabbing Richard Pitino in a move that was both bold and questioned. Tubby Smith’s removal was questionable and unfair, but I do think baby Pitino is going to be a good hire, and Richard should have little trouble recruiting — he’s well connected down south and in the northeast. Simply put, father Rick won’t let him fail and will undoubtedly send him transfers year in and year out.

Dre Mathieu is a talented and athletic JUCO guard comparable to Artis who can help them immediately. Andre and Austin Hollins return to Minny as well, and the addition of a talent like former UCLA signee Allerik Freeman would be another coup. The Gophers’ lose quite a bit in their frontcourt with the graduation of both, Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe.

Coach will use the speed and athleticism he possesses at the guard position to play up tempo and in your face, a Pitino staple. Increased offensive efficiency with his group will help and Minnesota will have a chance to be good quite soon.
Too often a season ago we saw a hesitant group that was almost afraid to advance beyond the restraints of their half-court offense. They looked uncomfortable and lacked confidence at times, relying far too much on offensive rebounding to generate scoring. That will change under Pitino given his past body of work, and given the question marks surrounding some former Big Ten powers; this Minnesota team could make moves once again.

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The NCAA men’s Final Four is an event comparable to the Super Bowl in the sense that it provides a
great gambling opportunity for bettors to cash in before season’s end in what is an annual, televised
event for which viewership will be excessive.

More viewers equals more gambling and, as a result, a market with increased intrigue is established. But
the weekend in total should be analyzed before decisions are made, and thus we’ll look to break down
everything these national semifinals have to offer in order to make you a more informed viewer.

Star power is important here as well. Kids are playing not only for their seasons and possibly their
careers, but also for draft positioning. That should not be overlooked. Did we mention the national title
is on the line?

Michigan – Syracuse
No one is making more of a name for himself than Trey Burke right now. True college fans knew he
was the nation’s best point guard coming into this tournament. But I’m not sure anyone had a ton of
confidence in this team’s chances after the brackets were released.

Burke brings his team into this Final Four coming off of maybe the three best halves of basketball
anyone has played all year. The Wolverines are hot, and their youth has vanished in the wake of
newfound swagger and confidence.

Mitch McGary is finally becoming the player many of us envisioned. He is also surrounded by a versatile
group of forwards who not only defend the rim admirably, but also do a good job of taking away interior
passing lanes.

Syracuse has two dynamic guards in Brandon Triche and Michael Carter Williams. But their offense is
most effective when dominating the offensive glass. Their misses become assists and it feeds their effort
defensively.

Marquette made only 12 field goals on Saturday, but 5 of them came in a flurry of mid-range excellence
from star forward Davontae Gardner. Gardner did nothing fancy or flashy. He established position at the
foul line, turned and fired.

I’m not certain Michigan has an athlete quite capable of doing what Gardner did in the regional final, but
they can attack the middle of the zone off of ball screen action. I’d also look for Glenn Robinson to be a
presence in the short corner, as that is an additional soft spot for this defense.

On the flip side, watch to see how John Beilein uses the 1-3-1. The Big East in general is a conference
where most teams use 2-3 because it is so widespread. In an interview with ESPN earlier this week, Pitt
coach Jamie Dixon emphasized its importance.

As stated, working the ball into the middle of the 2-3 is paramount to success against it. A 1-3- 1
alignment forces the offense to look away from the middle. It also forces guards to more or less play
“hot potato” because of trap potential.

Syracuse’s offense looked great against Cal, Indiana and Marquette. How will it look against the 1-3-1?
That’s anyone’s guess. As good as Carter-Williams has been, this will be a new test for him, and he has
been turnover prone at times.

All in all, if Michigan can defend the glass and prevent easy baskets, they are simply too efficient on
offense to lose this game. They have the “look” of a team on a mission, and Burke can launch himself
into legendary status with a few more performances like what we’ve seen recently.

Wichita State – Louisville
I do not want to dismiss Wichita State in anyway. I felt like they possessed great value prior to the Sweet
16, and they proved me correct. But when I look at this matchup on paper, I’m just not sure they’ll be
able to score enough to win.

Wichita has several players capable of beating Louisville’s press and getting into the teeth of that
defense. Malcolm Armstead and Cleanthony Early are two who can make plays in the mid-range area.

But many teams make the mistake of trying to get to the rim against Louisville, and while I usually favor
an attacking approach (similar to what Russ Smith regularly employs), I’m just not sure that works here.

Wichita State will need interior scoring to hit anywhere near an offensive efficiency number sufficient to
enable them to win, and I don’t know that they can do it. Their low block scorers stand 6’8, and it will be
tough for them to finish against the size Louisville has.

Where this game could get interesting is on the other end, as Wichita has both the defensive mentality
and overall toughness to stop the Cardinals from pulling away in this game.

The total for this game opened at 130.5 and seems to be hovering in the 131.5/132 range now, a
number that seems relatively accurate. Louisville played Kentucky in last year’s Final Four. That game
went under rather easily, and one could say this matchup offers some similarities to 2012, only with
Louisville’s role reversed.

Louisville plays slightly faster than Wichita, and they will look to speed them up. The injury to Kevin
Ware was gruesome but should also not be overlooked in regards to depth. Ware is a major force
defensively, and their ability to press over a sustained period will be undermined in his absence.

The Shockers only turned it over 3 times in the second half of the OSU game. So the slow pace Wichita
will want could work, and they may be able to hang around and keep the game tight enough that an
under is a legitimate possibility.