All posts by Payne Insider

Written By: @PayneInsider

Moments before halftime of Wednesday night’s Nets-Celtics game a brewhaha took place when Kris Humphries gave Kevin Garnett an extensive shove to the face and chest after being called for a foul. Rajon Rondo took offense, then proceeded to shove Humphries into the stands behind the basket.

When the dust settled, the casualties were Rondo, Humphries and Gerald Wallace – the three players were ejected. If you’re a betting man and had money on the boys from Brooklyn, than you’ll gladly take a Humphries and Wallace trade for Rondo.

Written By: @PayneInsider

Despite the invite only crowd for the Grinnell College – Faith Baptist Bible duel an evening ago, its become ‘the talk of the town’ less than twenty-four hours later. Jack Taylor scored 58 points in the first half for Grinnell, and then the Division-III sophomore went bonkers.

The 5-foot-10 scoring guard dropped 80 points over the game’s final 20 minutes setting a new collegiate record with 138 points, 25 points higher than the previous record set six decades ago. Jack Taylor’s final line: 52 makes on 108 shots from the field, including 27 of 71 from three-point land.

David Arseneault, the Pioneers’ coach, espouses a bombs-away philosophy that ensures the clock operator is in for a long evening. Meaning: Jack Taylor heaved, and made, one shot roughly every 20 seconds (played 36 minutes).

If you’re wondering how a player that attempts 108 shots can get his teammates involved, stop wondering. Jack Taylor had ZERO assists, and he rounded out his box score with ZERO defensive rebounds. If you score 138, who needs to worry about teammates and defense?

Above is a quick look at what 47 of Jack Taylor’s 138 points looked like.

to be a member of the PayneInsider writing team? With Basketball season in full force we’re looking for talented writers who want to attack sports from a betting perspective. Whether it’s a gambling experience, handicapping angle you want to share, or an intensive statistical analysis there’s always like minded readers out there interested in hearing what you have to say. All we ask is that you answer the questions below and submit your answers to Sportsinfo [at] Payneinsider [dot] com so we can highlight your talents for a year chocked full of football, basketball, baseball, soccer, and all things sports betting. If you’ve written articles in the past feel free to attach them in the email.


Do you have previous writing experience? (Don’t worry, it’s far from a requirement if you’re creative and insightful)

What sports are you most comfortable discussing in depth?

Why would you enjoy writing for a sports betting website?

How long have you followed the sports betting industry?

Are you a sports bettor yourself and if so, what sport do you find most successful?

Do you have certain teams/schools you feel most confident discussing objectively?

If you could have dinner/drinks with one person in sports, who would it be and why?

Please don’t think of this Q and A as an interview or test we just want to get a feel for the individual talents of each interested writer and hopefully we can help launch a journalism start for aspiring sports writers regardless of previous writing experience.

Thanks to everyone who is interested in pursuing the opportunity and we hope to hear from each and everyone of you!

Written By: @PayneInsider

It’s been 69 years since the metropolitan area was hit by a late-season hurricane, but that won’t stop us from betting football today! Below are the games weather will play a significant role in, so make sure you’ve factored it into your handicapping. Remember one thing, don’t solely place bets based upon weather – make sure other significant factors play a role.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+3, 41)
Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium
Forecast: 100% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north at 24 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 45.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 41.5)
Site: Lincoln Financial Field
Forecast: 100% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north-east at 17 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 46.5

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-1, 38)
Site: MetLife Stadium
Forecast: 70% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north-east at 14-17 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 40.5

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-7.5, 42)
Site: Soldier Field
Forecast: 20% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the north at 18 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 45

Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 44)
Site: Heinz Field
Forecast: 70% chance of rain. Winds blowing out of the south at 13 mph from 1:00pm to 4:00pm.
Note: Total opened 47.5

Written By: @PayneInsider

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants
Favorite: Tigers -175
Underdog: Giants +155

Whether you’re in the dugout playing 162 games plus playoffs and world series or you’re on the sidelines betting, Major League Baseball is the ultimate grind. Each game is its own entity and a small spec to the 5,000 piece puzzle. Recreational bettors will see Justin Verlander on the bump in Game 1 with the potential to pitch three games in the World Series and assume the results are a forgone conclusion, thus, not wavering when laying the wood. But remember, each game throughout the course of the season is a tiny piece to the puzzle.

The math guys have spoken: Detroit becomes World Series Champions 56% of the time. Recreational bettors who ponied up and paid -175 are jubilant roughly 5.5 times out of 10. Unfortunately, for recreational bettors they don’t realize they’re paying a premium on the Tigers. Sure, APPLE is a great company and stock to own if you had the the foresight to purchase at $200 per share. But, what about now at $600 per share? Same concept applies here.

With the above odds; Tigers -175/Giants +155 you would need the Detroit Tigers to win the World Series 61.9% of the time JUST TO BREAK EVEN! Betting on money line sports is a completely different animal. Sure, the Yankees’ win roughly 100 games every season, but if you’re laying 2/1 every night you’re going to lose money long term. It’s one of the few sports where you can hit 61.7% (100-62), and lose money. 100 WINS X $100 = +$10,000. 62 LOSSES X $200 = -$12,400. As gamblers, we don’t get paid in percentages. 61.7% doesn’t pay the bills, only cash does.

If you read our MLB second-half betting preview (neglecting our brain fart on the Athletics’), and bet the San Francisco Giants at 14-1 to win the World Series you’re sitting pretty right now. Effectively, beating the market by more than 900%! I’m against hedging for the most part (it’s for landscapers), but a 5-month investment at 14-1 I simply can’t argue with those wanting to guarantee profit.

If you didn’t read our second-half MLB preview, I would suggest siding with the math geeks. Math plays an integral role in baseball handicapping, more than any other sport. If you’re a sports bettor that wagers daily, you can not pass up the value San Francisco +155 or better presents, specifically, with home field advantage and National League rules in your back pocket for the majority of the World Series.

Written By: @PayneInsider

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Chicago Bears -6
Over/Under: 47

One of the toughest games on the Week 7 board, so it’s no surprise our group and a majority of sharp bettors I speak with are treading lightly. Based on the math, our TRUE NUMBER is Chicago -7.25, so there’s SOME value getting the Bears’ under a touchdown with “SEVEN” being the second largest key number in the NFL with roughly 11% of games landing there.

Match ups, situations, and information play a significant role in this game. Hard to neglect the fact that NFC underdogs are a mind blowing 37-7-2 ATS this season (83%), but Schwartz’ Lions have covered the number in just 39% of their road games since he took over in 2009. Chicago is second in the NFL in takeaways averaging 3.4 per game – that can’t withstand the test of time. Chicago’s 4-1 but their 5 opponents have a combined record of 14-18, hardly anything to write home to mom about.

An important element most recreational bettors neglect in their numbers is special teams – in a game like this it should be at the forefront of your handicapping. The Bears’ special team unit has been one of the leagues best, ranked 3rd in the NFL overall. Conversely, special teams is Detroit’s achilles heel ranked 31st. Pay close attention to the hidden yards racked up throughout the game.

For Detroit, the goal is maintaining offensive balance so Stafford doesn’t have to force the ball like he does so often. Since Leshoure entered the starting lineup, the Lions’ are averaging 3.7 points more per game – Mikel will look to impress in his return back home (Illinois).

I think Detroit is the more desperate of the two; Chicago can afford to drop a game. I know the Lions’ are the side two of the largest syndicate groups are looking towards but again, neither has jumped in yet.

We saw early money come in on the UNDER 48 minutes after this line opened eight days ago. At the current number of 47 there’s still value as my true number is 44 – above the key number of 45. Anything at 45.5 or better is worth a look towards the under and I expect this to tick back up as recreational bettors enter the market closer to kickoff.

Written By: @PayneInsider

Sports books and sharp bettors were exuberant, but the overwhelming majority of folks that wagered on the Packers-Seahawks Monday Night Football escapade probably felt like they did as a child on Christmas morning opening up tube socks from the aunt they can’t stand.


THE STAGE: Green Bay, which closed 3.5-point favorites while garnering roughly 70-80% of all bets-leading 12-7 on the final play of the game, when Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson chucked a prayer towards the back corner of the end zone. Disregarding multiple offensive pass interferences, two officials had conflicting opinions on whether the offensive or defensive player caught the ball, before ultimately deciding that Seattle receiver Golden Tate had come down with the pass.

THE DECISION: Sports betting reporter, @DavidPurdum spoke with Jeff Sherman, assistant director of the race and sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton on what the controversial touchdown meant to their bottom line: It was a “6-figure” swing in favor of our book, “85% of bets were on the Packers.” Sherman went on to describe the scene at the LVH SuperBook as; “chaotic disbelief.” Later on, Sherman says he estimates that the game shifted $15 million in Nevada alone.

ESPN Sports Business Reporter, @DarrenRovell chatted with Mike Perry, a spokesman for betting website Sportsbook.ag. Perry’s estimate in the money swing on the call at the end of the game is closer to $200 million and $250 million worldwide. Perry said that 70 to 80 percent of the money on his site was put on the Packers, which is in line with the percentages bet in Las Vegas.

THE AFTERMATH: Clearly, the Packers’ got shafted by overwhelmed replacement officials and received the shortest end of the stick, but what does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Teams that start 1-2 make the playoffs just 27% of the time, whereas, teams who start 2-1 reach the postseason at a 52% clip.

Innocent bystanders (San Francisco, St. Louis and Arizona) were also dramatically affected by the outcome of Monday night’s tragedy. Despite being the worst division in football since realignment in 2002, the NFC West race is always hotly contested-evident with the division being decided by two games or less seven times in the last decade.

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Green Valley Ranch casino in Las Vegas:

Written By: @JamesFeldman – Professional bettor and BetFair correspondent

QPR vs. Chelsea

This EPL game is a huge West London derby clash, which has intensified over the past year – mainly due to the John Terry/Anton Ferdinand saga.

Last season, when Chelsea went on the road to QPR, they lost 1-0. However, they did have a player sent off. Even after Chelsea had a player sent off, they were all over QPR, and just could not snatch an equaliser. When the two sides met next at Chelsea, there was only one team who was going to come away with the three points. Chelsea dominated right from the whistle, with Daniel Sturridge getting Chelsea off the mark within the first minute. After leading 4-0 at half time, Chelsea finished the match 6-1 winners, with Fernando Torres even bagging a hat trick.

Although QPR have signed almost another teams worth of players this season, they are still yet to win a match to date. Compare this to Chelsea, whom have bought a handful of young, talented signings, who have helped Chelsea win the first three games of the season, and keep their 100% record so far.

With Chelsea’s new attacking style, and the way they played QPR in both games last season, I can only see Chelsea scoring a fair few goals today. Furthermore, Chelsea have two clean sheets from three games in the EPL so far, whereas QPR have conceded nine goals in their three games. Back Chelsea to win away at QPR today.

Recommended Football Picks:

Back Chelsea (@ QPR) @ [1.84 or -118]
Back Manchester City (@ Stoke) @ [1.70 or -142]
Back Fulham/West Brom – Draw @ [3.49 or +249]
Back Southampton/Arsenal under 3 goals @ [1.91 or -109]

Written by: @Payneinsider

College football storms out of the box faster than Seabiscuit at Santa Anita when Michigan meets Alabama in the marquee week one duel. JerryWorld in Dallas is the stage Saturday evening when the two heavy weights collide to set the BCS championship tone for 2012-13.


Expectations are high for the Wolverines’ coming into the season after an 11-win campaign in 2011-12. Brady Hoke has maize and blue faithful thinking National Championship, but that’s facetious thinking in my estimation. Michigan returns 13 starters from a team that caught all the breaks a season ago. They won every close game (those decided by 7 or less), while winning the turnover battle with a +7 differential. The schedule was cupcake city early on, where a young Michigan team was afforded the luxury of learning a new system on the fly. They started 5-0 (all home games), against teams that finished a combined 32-31 last season. Four of their toughest games against Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue and Nebraska were also played in the comfy confines of The Big House. This year, those four teams will be hosting Michigan while salivating at thoughts of revenge. Despite coming away victorious in the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech, it was quite an anomaly. Beamer’s boys out gained Michigan 2 to 1, holding the Wolverines’ to just 184 total yards. They were out rushed 3 to 1 and V-Tech had 10 more first downs. To this day, every time I see the score of that game I think my mind is playing tricks on me. Michigan might be in the hunt for a Big Ten title, but they have no shot at a National Championship – don’t think they come close to matching last season’s eleven wins, either. I have them rated 19th in my initial power ratings, and one of the sharpest betting syndicates I speak with has them barely inside the top 25. Regression is imminent for Brady Hoke in his sophomore season at Ann Arbor.

REBUILD – to make extensive repairs to: reconstruct. RELOAD – to replace. Again: anew. Most have a strong disdain for Nick Saban, but you must respect the job he’s done during his tenure in Tuscaloosa where the word REBUILD is frowned upon and to RELOAD is second nature. This season won’t be the exception despite losing eight starters to the NFL, including four first round picks. Tiger Stadium on November, 3rd appears to be the only speed bump that could knock the Crimson Tide train off track on its way to Sun Life Stadium January, 7th. Bama’ skeptics will focus on a team returning just 11 starters (only 5 on defense), but this is a team that won 8 games against SEC opponents by an average margin of 28.5 points last season. Even if there’s a slight regression this year, how low is the mean? A.J. McCarron inherits the leadership role after growing up before our very eyes during a 21-ZIP shellacking of LSU in the National Championship last January. The onus will be on McCarron, his four returning offensive lineman, and the running game to sustain drives and help a young Alabama defense get acclimated to Saban’s complex system. Alabama is favored in 11 of 12 contests this season, the lone exception being the aforementioned LSU game (1.5-point underdog currently). Most sharp bettors believe Arkansas is overrated – great skill position players, but light in the trenches yet again. Bama travels to Missouri and Tennessee in successive weeks but are aligned two-touchdown favorites over each. Auburn, the last game on the docket could present trouble for the Tide’, but it’s played at Bryant Denny off a bye week (apologies Western Carolina) and Vegas has aligned Alabama early 19.5-point favorites. All indications point to this being a one-game season for the Tide’.

Most are hyping Alabama-Michigan because they see #2 Vs #8 in the polls. In the betting world, this isn’t much of a game as Alabama is favored by 14. We saw what Bud Foster’s defense did with time to prepare for a one-dimensional Michigan offense – we should expect similar success for Saban’s defense in a comparable situation. Nick is one of the best at setting up a game plan with extended time, evident by his 8-1 ATS mark during his tenure at Bama’ in week 1 and bowl games. The strength of Alabama on offense is the weakness of Michigan on defense. Alabama should be able to dictate the trenches and wear on the Wolverines’ as the game progresses. Alabama opened -11 on August, 2nd and sharp money has been trickling in on the Tide’ ever since, moving the line a full 3 points despite more of the bets coming on Michigan. Nick Saban has always been a friend to the betting man, sporting a 38-26-1 record against the spread at Alabama. With 52.38% being your break even point, Saban’s 59+ cover percentage leaves his backers usually feeling satisfied. Nick’s success against the spread is truly amazing because Alabama is such a public team their lines are always inflated. His style is conducive to covering spreads because they can run for points while shortening the game and killing clock better than anyone. Saban isn’t built like most – he has a killer instinct. You’re fooling yourself if you don’t think he wants to repay Michigan for all the years he and his ego played second fiddle at Michigan State. I’ve yet to place a wager on this game, but it’s Alabama or nothing.

Update 5:05 p.m With public money continuing to slowly trickle in on Michigan as game time approaches the spread has come off the key number of 14 and down to 13 and even 12.5 at BetCris. I’m now jumping into the mix and have placed a wager on Alabama -12.5. We were always going to be on this side, but being able to gauge market temperature is crucial. By waiting, we have beaten the market by 1.5 points. My “TRUE LINE” on this game is Alabama -18.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: Alabama 38, Michigan 20

Written by: JamesFeldman – Professional Bettor and BetFair correspondent.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

This is an intriguing game, and most definitely the most exciting from this weekend’s EPL schedule.

Last weekend Liverpool proved (by drawing 2-2 vs. City) that they are a lot better than people gave them credit for after their opening day defeat to West Brom (3-0). Arsenal have surprisingly not scored a goal yet in the EPL. They have acquired a new attacking partnership in Podolski and Giroud, however they’ve yet to find their goalscoring touch. However, a much needed improvement by Arsenals standards is that they have managed to keep a clean sheet in both of their games so far this season.

Liverpool looked good last weekend, but they still have that inconsistency to them that doesn’t bode well for the long road ahead this season. They did play in Europe in mid-week as well, against a Hearts side who for the majority of the game gave them a run for their money. Arsenal will have had a whole week to prepare for this game, added extra time for their team to gel.

I feel this game will be a close encounter, as it always is between these two. Liverpool will want to prove that they can consistently play as well as they did last week against the top EPL teams, and Arsenal will want to prove that they can score and keep a clean sheet in a game. I don’t see this game being as high scoring as it was last week, and because the two teams could quite easily out-do the other and win, it’s too difficult to pick a winner.

RECOMMENDED BET: Liverpool/Arsenal UNDER 2.5 goals @ [1.88 or -113.6]