All posts by Payne Insider

Chelsea vs. Newcastle

This match up is one of the highlights of this weekend’s EPL schedule. Both teams have aspirations of finishing within the top four this season, although Chelsea are the more likelier of the two, and no doubt have higher expectations of challenging for the Premiership title.


Newcastle was by far the surprise package last season. After selling Andy Carroll to Liverpool for £35 million, they entrusted manger Alan Pardew and chief scout Tony Carr with re-investing their transfer funds wisely. Not only did they spend the money well, Newcastle now has a good enough squad to consistently compete with the majority of the EPL. Chelsea was disappointing the majority of last season for numerous reasons. Fernando Torres didn’t reach the form that was expected of him, considering his goals tally during his time with Liverpool, as well as previous manager Andre Villas-Boas trying to change the majority of the Chelsea team too quickly, and unsettling a lot of the senior players. Since Chelsea and AVB parted ways, ex-Chelsea player Roberto Di Matteo took on the role of temporary manager to see Chelsea through to the end of the season. Not only did he improve on the sides EPL performances, he went on to defy all odds and win the European Champions League trophy – the most prestigious club trophy in the World. Since then he has been appointed permanent manager of Chelsea, and this summer has signed a new group of young, talented footballers (Eden Hazard, Marko Marin, Oscar, Azpilicueta), with many more linked to the West London side.

Although Chelsea lost the last game at home against Newcastle, earlier this year, it was amongst a difficult schedule for The Blues’ in which their main focus was progressing in the Champions League. Chelsea beat Newcastle at their ground a few months prior, 3-0. Newcastle has a few injury concerns at the moment. Defensive midfielder Cheick Tiote remains in doubt, as well as their main center back Fabricio Colocinni. One half of their star forward line also remains in doubt to start the game Saturday, with Demba Ba facing a late fitness test. Chelsea appears to have a fully fit squad, although some players are still lacking match fitness. Expect to see the same line-up Chelsea started with in their victory against Reading on Wednesday night, in which the home side came from behind to win 4-2.

Both sides have played mid-week games, with Newcastle flying to Greece for their Europa League game. They drew the game 1-1, although the majority of their first team players weren’t present. The season has just begun, so it’s difficult to gauge which side has the upper hand early on. However, Chelsea is notoriously fast starters and typically finds themselves located near the top of the table during the infant stages of the season. Furthermore, Chelsea is the home side going in to this weekend’s fixture. Newcastle has not only had to fly to and from Greece this week, they now face another away game, against a Chelsea side that is very strong at Stamford Bridge. Although Chelsea doesn’t seem to have the powerful side they did during previous years with Didier Drogba, expect them to control the majority of the possession Saturday. This should be a close fought game at the Bridge, although I feel Chelsea have the upper hand, and certainly the momentum after Wednesday nights win. My free pick is Chelsea to beat Newcastle on Saturday.

Liverpool vs. Man City

This is without a doubt the most exciting and mouth-watering fixture on offer from this weekends EPL schedule. Liverpool plays their first home game of the season — The 2011-12 EPL season saw yet another inconsistent year for Liverpool. Under the managerial guidance of former player and Anfield legend Kenny Dalglish, Liverpool spent over £75 million in the transfer window. These signings have come under huge scrutiny, especially Andy Carroll who cost the side £35 million and wasn’t nearly impressive as his previous stint at Newcastle. Furthermore, Stewart Downing who cost the club £20 million also didn’t make the impact that was expected of him. The left-footed winger finished the season without a goal or an assist in 36 appearances. Over the summer, Liverpool has appointed a new manager – Brendan Rodgers – and he’s brought with him from Swansea, Joe Allen for £15 million. City has been the total opposite, in terms of success. Manchester City won last seasons EPL title in one of the most exhilarating finales the Premiership has ever seen. After finding themselves 2-1 down at home to QPR with only injury time remaining, City managed to rally together and score two goals and clinch the title in dramatic fashion. City haven’t spent as much this season as in years prior, however; they have brought in talented youngster Jack Rodwell from Everton in a potential £15 million deal. The majority of their squad has remained intact, although Emmanuel Adebayor has recently left to join Tottenham – whom he was on loan to during last season.

The first game of this season saw Liverpool lose 3-0 to West Brom. Critics were quick to jump on the bandwagon, to all slate Liverpool, even though they had the majority of possession – and a player sent off. Give credit where it’s due, West Brom played far better with the proper game plan and tactics employed on Saturday — they deserved the three points. City started the defense of their title with a home win against newly promoted Southampton. They started as everyone expected, taking an early lead, but were surprisingly pegged back 2-1 after substitute Ricky Lambert inspired them. However, City’s dominance, especially at home shone through and with 20 minutes to go they equalized when Nasri rounded off the comeback with 10 minutes to spare giving City the 3-2 win. A downside to Manchester City’s win was the injury to star Argentinian striker Sergio Aguero. Aguero was instrumental in City winning the EPL last year, scoring 23 goals in his first season with the club. So expect a new striker to be bought before the transfer window finishes, if Aguero’s injury is as expected (leaving him unavailable for months). Fellow Argentinian Carlos Tevez, after having a very rocky and tumultuous season with the club and manager last season has returned to form and looks as lively and hungry as every to pound the back of the old onion bag. He scored the first goal in Sundays win Vs. Southampton, as well as scoring a fantastic goal against Chelsea in the Charity Shield.

Liverpool will be missing key central defender Daniel Agger after being sent off in their first game, so expect them to be shaky at the back. Man City look as strong as they were last season, and with the experience of winning the Premiership title in their back pocket, expect them to have a similar year. Yaya Toure has dominated the midfield for City, and although they’ve been playing a new 3-5-2 formation of late, expect them to revert back to their 4-2-3-1 formation Vs. Liverpool this weekend, depending on their striking options available and whom they decide to start. Expect a feisty clash in Merseyside, but I feel that Manchester City will be too strong for a Liverpool team still trying to gel together under Brendan Rodgers tactics. My free pick is Manchester City to defeat Liverpool.

Recommended Football Picks:

Back Chelsea -1 @ [1.81]
Back Aston Villa/Everton under 2 goals @ [2.2]
Back Tottenham Hotspur/West Brom under 3 goals @ [1.76]
Back Manchester City @ [2.4]

Written By: Professional Bettor and BetFair correspondent, James Feldman.

Last Wednesday, moments after Felix Hernandez tossed the 23rd perfect game in MLB history against the Tampa Bay Rays, we looked at how pitchers fared in their next trip to the bump.


The history dates so far back, that I wasn’t able to obtain box scores pre-1922. For the sake of this article, my perfect game followups begin with Charlie Robertson of the White Sox, who threw his perfect game on April 30, 1922. On May 5th, he toed the rubber while facing the Indians’ — just like King Felix will do this evening at Safeco Field — and he just didn’t have the same gusto. In six innings, Anderson gave up four runs on nine hits, while taking the 6-3 loss to Cleveland.

Fast forward nine decades, Philip Humber and Matt Cain achieved perfection 54-days apart earlier this year. Philip Humber turned in a stinker for his followup performance, giving up nine runs on eight hits in five innings of work against the Red Sox. Matt Cain on the other hand, was able to get his Giants’ to the winners circle against the Angels despite not having his best stuff (5 IP, 6H, 3ER).

From a sports betting perspective, pitchers have not brought their “A” game after perfection. All told, the eighteen pitchers with followup games on record have averaged 6.2 innings pitched with a 5.35 ERA, while sporting a 6-8 record with four no decisions.

Currently, the Mariners’ and Felix Hernandez are -210 favorites on the majority of sports betting sites over the Cleveland Indians tonight ($100 bet wins $47.62).

Here are the pitchers stat lines for the following start after their perfect game:

Charlie Robertson, White Sox, vs. Cleveland, May 5, 1922: 6 ip, 9 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 3 K (L). Final score: Indians 6, White Sox 3

Don Larsen, Yankees, vs. Boston, April 20, 1957: 1.1 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 0 K (ND)* Final score: Yankees 10, Red Sox 7.

Jim Bunning, Phillies, vs. St. Louis, June 26, 1964: 7 ip, 11 h, 4 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 5 K (ND). Final score: Phillies 6, Cardinals 5.

Sandy Koufax, Dodgers. vs. Cubs, Sept. 14, 1965: 6 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 3 K (L). Final score: Cubs 2, Dodgers 1.

Catfish Hunter, A’s, vs. Twins, May 14, 1968: 6 ip, 8 h, 8 r, 8 er, 5 bb, 4 K (W); Final score: A’s 13, Twins 8.

Len Barker, Indians, vs. Mariners, May 20, 1981: 9 ip, 8 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 10 K (L). Final score: Mariners 3, Indians 1.

Mike Witt, Angels, vs. Twins, Apirl 9, 1985: 7.2 ip, 10 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 3 K (L). Final score: Twins 6, Angels 2*.

Tom Browning, Reds, vs. Giants, Sept. 21, 1988: 8 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 K (W). Final score: Reds 5, Giants 1.

Dennis Martinez, Expos, vs. Phillies, Aug. 12, 1991: 7 ip, 6 h, 4 r, 4 er, 2 bb, 4 K (ND). Final score: Phillies 6, Expos 5.

Kenny Rogers, Rangers, vs. White Sox, Aug. 2, 1994: 5.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 2 K (L). Final score: White Sox 6, Rangers 2.

David Wells, Yankees, vs. Red Sox, May 23, 1998: 7 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 5 K (W). Final score: Yankees 12, Red Sox 3.

David Cone, Yankees, vs. Indians, July 23, 1998: 4 ip, 6 h, 6 r, 2 er, 4 bb, 7 K (ND). Final score: Yankees 9, Indians 8.

Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, vs. Marlins, May 23, 2004: 7 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 5 K (W). Final score: Diamondbacks 4, Marlins 3.

Mark Buehrle, White Sox, vs. Twins, July 28, 2009: 6.1 ip, 5 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 bb, 5 K (L). Final score: Twins 5, White Sox 3.

Dallas Braden, A’s, vs. Angels, May 14, 2010: 8 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 5 K (L). Final score: Angels 4, A’s 0.

Roy Halladay, Phillies, vs. Padres, June 4, 2010: 7 ip, 10 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 7 K (W). Final score: Phillies 3, Padres 2.

Philip Humber, White Sox, vs. Red Sox, April 26, 2012: 5 ip, 8 h, 9 r, 9 er, 3 bb, 5 K (L). Final score: Red Sox 10, White Sox 3.

Matt Cain, Giants, vs. Angels, June 18, 2012: 5 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 4 bb, 4 K (W). Final score: Giants 5, Angels 3.

Felix Hernandez, TBD…

Follow On Twitter: @PayneInsider



While professional bettors used All-Star break to recharge the batteries and shift focus to the football season rapidly approaching, the rest of the free world went about their week as usual – and maybe even tuned into that eight-zip snoozer produced by Bud Selig’s gang. Reality is, we’re all just biding time until the dog days of summer conclude so we can ditch the lumber and pick up the pigskin.


But college football is 48 days away still, and the NFL season doesn’t kick off for 54 more days.

Cash has always made my heart grow fonder, so why not continue to extract profits from the diamond to fulfill our burning desire within for football?

Here’s a look, a very long look, at what unfolded in the first-half, and a few tidbits that will help you turn a profit in the back-half of the MLB season.

5 MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS: (Based on $100 money line wager per game)
1. Pittsburgh Pirates (48-37) +$1,900
2. Baltimore Orioles (45-40) +$1,240
3. Washington Nationals (49-34) +$1,070
4. New York Mets (46-40) +$1,000
5. New York Yankees (52-33) +$900

If you found yourself backing the five ball clubs listed above you’ve likely enjoyed a profitable first half of baseball. Now, on to the teams that haven’t left you feeling quite as cozy inside. In fact, if you bet hard earned greenbacks on the first team listed below you’re likely feeling financial swoons worse than our European friends.

5 MOST UNPROFITABLE TEAMS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (37-50) -$2,460
2. Colorado Rockies (33-52) -$1,560
3. Milwaukee Brewers (40-45) -$1,300
4. San Diego Padres (34-53) -$1,200
5. Houston Astros (33-53) -$1,150

Unquestionably, information is the most powerful tool in sports betting, but baseball is a sport you can beat with top notch statistical driven data when applied correctly. Exhibit A: The Houston Astros. One of leagues least profitable teams overall, but when put in the right statistical situation (the comfy confines of Minute Made Park) can earn profits with the best of them.

5 MOST PROFITABLE HOME TEAMS:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates (29-14) +$1,500
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (27-16) +$800
3. San Francisco Giants (26-16) +$740
4. Houston Astros (24-21) +700
5A. New York Mets (26-20) +490
5B. Oakland Athletics (24-20) +490

5 MOST UNPROFITABLE HOME TEAMS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (17-27) -$2,110
2. Seattle Mariners (16-25) -$1,070
3. Kansas City Royals (14-23) -$1,000
4A. Colorado Rockies (18-25) -$980
4B. Boston Red Sox (22-24) -$980
5. San Diego Padres (17-27) -$890

Every year different situations present themselves – the easiest to identify being “splits.” While most enjoy sleeping in their own bed at night, there are teams anxious to leave town and remove themselves from distraction. The Kansas City Royals fit that mold and play exponentially better ball on the highway. Discovering the reason why is pertinent. Being able to then identify if that reason has enough legs to apply, and yield a return on investment is what separates professional from recreational bettors.

5 MOST PROFITABLE AWAY TEAMS:
1. Atlanta Braves (26-17) +$1,260
2. Chicago White Sox (23-17) +$1,110
3. Baltimore Orioles (23-20) +$1,060
4. New York Yankees (27-17) +$930
5. Kansas City Royals (23-24) +$840

5 MOST UNPROFITABLE AWAY TEAMS:
1. Houston Astros (9-32) -$1,850
2. Chicago Cubs (14-32) -$1,100
3. Milwaukee Brewers (18-24) -$820
4. Colorado Rockies (15-27) -$580
5. Toronto Blue Jays (20-24) -$360

Constantly, I hear recreational bettors say; “No way, I can’t back a team like…” I get it, I really do. But you’re missing maximum profit capability when automatically weeding teams out before digging deep – and frequently, when finding something on a poor team the value is tenfold due to horrific public perception. The Houston Astros are the consummate example, winning just 22% of road games and burning money faster than Antoine Walker. Thus far, Houston’s season has been summed up by one facet: Starting Pitching. Despite Bill James’ theory of every day players being exponentially more valuable to their team than starting pitchers, the Astros would undoubtedly be first in line to dispute that theory. Houston’s team ERA on the highway is 2.19 higher than at Minute Made Park (3.47). Don’t discriminate, bad teams can earn you money, too!

* * *

Next, I’ll dive into the comfiest confines for hurlers, as well as those parks requiring a pitcher to bring their “A” game. When breaking these down it’s imperative to factor in all controllable elements. Constantly, I hear folks complain about New Yankee Stadium being the size of my backyard. Reality is, this park shouldn’t discourage you from playing unders when things align. It’s currently ranked in the bottom half of MLB with the team playing a majority of its games there ranked 5th in offensive production. In fact, 26 of 41 games at New Yankee Stadium went under the posted total in the first half. Ask yourself, if the Padres played at Yankee stadium and brought the leagues worst offense with them would your perception of the park change? Or vice versa, if the Yankees played home games at Petco Park would it even be on the cusp for Top 5 pitcher friendly parks? This is a thinking mans game, if you aren’t asking yourself these types of questions when deciphering information you have no chance at being a profitable bettor. Certain parks play better at particular times of the day, and with uncontrollable elements. Overs during a hot day at Great American Ball Park, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington at night, overs at Wrigley Field field when the wind is blowing out – and yes, unders at Wrigley Field when the wind is blowing in. How can the same exact park be advantageous to completely opposite elements? SITUATIONS! It’s great to have the advantage of a particular park in your back pocket, but that’s factored into the number, whereas bookmakers have a tougher time accounting for uncontrollable factors.

TOP 5 PITCHER FRIENDLY PARKS: (Based on 2012 First Half Data)
1. AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)
2. Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)
3. Citi Field (New York, NY)
4. Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California)
5. Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)

TOP 5 HITTER FRIENDLY PARKS:
1. Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)
2. Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)
3. Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
4. Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)
5. U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)

* * *

Continuing forward we’ll address starting pitching – guys you should look to avoid, or even fade in the right situation. These pitchers simply can not continue their current form and regression is imminent. There’s also pitchers on the other side of the fence, who we think are on the cusp of turning things around based on prior history, and how unlucky they’ve been. Using a Sabermetric way of thinking is really helpful in identifying pitching form. Using things like BABIP (batting average on balls in play), FIP (fielding independent pitching), and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) really gives a better idea of how lucky, or unlucky a pitcher is. Gauging pitchers by ERA (earned run average) is really an archaic handicapping tool.

5 PITCHERS FACING REGRESSION:
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Ryan Vogelson
3. Chris Capuano
4. Matt Harrison
5. Jeremy Hellickson

5 PITCHERS TO PROGRESS:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. Cliff Lee
3. Josh Johnson
4. Jason Vargas
5. Jon Lester

* * *

Additionally, breaking down second-half schedules is imperative to better gauge how things will play out once the dust settles. Sure, the New York Mets have been a fantastic story thus far, but based on their second-half schedule it’s likely wiser to look towards Atlanta in the NL East to give Washington a run for their money. I also didn’t want to include teams like the Oakland Athletics on this list because simply put; they have no shot! Sorry, Billy. If having the third toughest schedule down the stretch wasn’t tough enough, Oakland’s staring at the poop shoot of two of the best teams in MLB. This list includes teams in contention with the toughest, and easiest paths to a division crown.

5 TOUGHEST SECOND-HALF SCHEDULES:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. New York Mets
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. St. Louis Cardinals

5 EASIEST SECOND-HALF SCHEDULES:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox

* * *

Moving ahead, lets take a glimpse at what the future holds in terms of division winners, as well as final MLB win projections for all 30 teams. These projections are formulated from my true numbers in conjunction with two of the larger syndicate groups in the country we share information with on a daily basis. The advantage being, we cover nearly the entire country with me located in the south, and the two groups split amongst the coasts.

2012 MLB DIVISION WINNER PROJECTIONS:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL EAST: New York Yankees
AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox
AL WEST: Texas Rangers

NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL EAST: Washington Nationals
NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals
NL WEST: San Francisco Giants

2012 MLB FINAL WIN PROJECTIONS:
1. Rangers W: 95 – L: 67
2. Yankees W: 93.5 – L: 68.5
3. Nationals W: 93 – L: 69
4. Angels W: 92.5 – L: 69.5
5. Giants W: 90 – L: 72
6. Cardinals W: 89.5 – L: 72.5
7. White Sox W: 88 – L: 74
8. Pirates W: 87 – L: 75
9. Reds W: 86.5 – L: 75.5
10. Red Sox W 86: – L: 76
11. Tigers W: 84.5 – L: 77.5
12. Rays 84 W:84 – L: 78
13. Dodgers W: 84 – L: 78
14. Orioles 83.5 W:84 – L: 77.5
15. Diamondbacks W: 83 – L: 79
16. Braves W: 82.5 – L: 79.5
17. Mets W: 81.5 – L: 80.5
18. Indians W: 80.5 – L: 81.5
19. Brewers W: 80 – L 82
20. Blue Jays W: 80 – L: 82
21. Phillies W: 79 – L: 83
22. Athletics W: 78.5 – L: 83.5
23. Marlins W: 77 – L: 85
24. Royals W: 70.5 – L: 91.5
25. Twins W: 69.5 – L: 92.5
26. Cubs W: 68.5 – L: 93.5
27. Mariners W: 68 – L: 94
28. Rockies W: 67.5 – L: 94.5
29. Astros W: 66 – L: 96
30. Padres W: 65 – L: 97

* * *

Finally, lets dig into some future bets that show great value-potential not only from a cashing perspective, but futures that appear to present easy hedge opportunities down the road guaranteeing earning capability.

TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES:
San Francisco Giants 14/1 ($100 bet wins $1,400)
L.A. Angels 12/1 ($100 bet wins $1,200)

TO WIN THE DIVISION:
NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals 2.5/1 ($100 bet wins $250)
NL CENTRAL: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.5/1 ($100 bet wins $350)
NL WEST: San Francisco Giants 1/1 ($100 bet wins $100)

This concludes our MLB Second-Half Betting preview. I hope you were able to stay awake reading its entirety. Admittedly, it was touch and go a few times for me while writing.

*** Check our discounted Second-Half MLB Package that gets you every selection through the World Series! ***

Rather than listen to Chris Berman for the next few hours repeatedly yell things like; “back, back, back, back, gone!” “Way gone!” And, “He gone!” I think we should take this time to rehash the best of: Chris Berman.

Chris Berman Ranting:



Chris Berman How To Video On Smuggling Drugs:



Chris Berman Flirting:

Written By: @PayneInsider



In a perfect world we would all be able to channel our inner George Costanza. You know, the world where watching the big game, grabbing a snack, and “having” the opposite sex simultaneously isn’t frowned upon – the real triple crown!

But down here on planet earth, where reality exists we aren’t afforded such luxuries. Phrases like; “Babe, could you pass me the CONDimmments” could easily be misconstrued. Not sure about you, but I’ve never had a hankering to experience the feeling of pepper on my member.

Ugh, it’s so hard. But we must come to terms with not being able to have our cake and eat it too. So, that leaves us with the question; Sex or Sports? Decisions, decisions – and a pressing one. I’ve decided a decision this ginormous shouldn’t be done alone, so our lady friend from across the pond is here to interject.

Her answer is shocking, but with such detailed research and analysis how could she be wrong?

Missed #25 – #21 Click Here!
Missed #20 – #16 Click Here!
Missed #15 – #11 Click Here!
Missed #10 – #5 Click Here!

It’s been a 5-day journey breaking down my top 25 college basketball power rankings, and I greatly appreciate you coming along for the ride. The goal is for you to apply these in an appropriate fashion and get you to start breathing, thinking, and acting sharp when sports betting specifically, with your basketball picks as conference tournaments and March Madness approach.

Time to unveil the 5 most power teams in all of college basketball!

#5 – OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (23-6) BIG 10 AP Poll: 8, Coaches Poll: 9
Slow and steady go the Buckeyes in the Big 10, and of late it’s been more slow than steady as OSU has dropped 3 of their last 5. After a weekend loss to Wisconsin at home they travel to Northwestern to face a team hungry to have its tournament card punched, then close the season at Michigan State who’s looking to wrap up a Big 10 crown. If Ohio State drops 5 of their last 7 many of the questions I had starting the season will be answered. They aren’t deep, they struggle shooting from distance, and they have a really tough time scoring when Sully’s on the bench. With that said, I know some of the sharpest guys in the world think OSU is the best team in the country but personally, I don’t see it. Now to the positives, OSU ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency, and we know defense wins championships. The Buckeyes also have 6 wins against my top 50 including; 4 wins against my top 25 so they do deserve to be in the discussion as one of the nation’s best, hence why they’re in my top 5. I will add that there isn’t much separating OSU from teams 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 on my list. As of now, O-H-I-O gets an incomplete until I see how they finish down the stretch.
Next Big Game: 3/4 @ Michigan State Spartans

#4 – SYRACUSE ORANGE (29-1) BIG EAST AP Poll: 2, Coaches Poll: 2
Syracuse has rallied around the early season allegations surrounding former assistant, Bernie Fine. They’ve used that as motivation throughout the course of their nearly perfect season adopting an “us against the world attitude.” The lone Orange loss came on the road in a hostile environment without their most valuable player, Fab Melo. Despite everyone talking about how bad the Big East conference is this season, Syracuse has faced a top 15 strength of schedule – and their record against top competition is nearly flawless. The Orange have gone 9-1 against my top 50 and a perfect 3-0 against my top 25, how’s that for handling business? The knock on Syracuse is their issues rebounding, no doubt they have to do a better job, but when you play a zone defense you leave yourself susceptible to the offensive rebound. The reality is, it’s a numbers game and a tradeoff Jim Boeheim is willing to take because opponents are only shooting 38% from the field. Syracuse is the deepest team in the country and have as many as 10 pro prospects. The Cuse’ are plenty capable of cutting the nets down come March if they can get any type of consistent outside shooting from Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine.
Next Big Game: 3/3 Vs. Louisville Cardinals

#3 – KANSAS JAYHAWKS (24-5) BIG 12 AP Poll: 4, Coaches Poll: 5
Everybody outside the state of Kansas was leery of the Jayhawks entering this season, but they’ve done nothing but impress since the start. KU is getting better than expected guard play and their bigs’ have improved throughout the course of the season specifically, Jeff Withey. Kansas is as complete a team as anybody in the country. They shoot it well, they pass it well, they score a ton of points, they rebound well, and they certainly don’t treat the defensive end of the court like a step child. The thing to focus on when talking Jayhawk basketball is the number 10: Kansas has one of the toughest schedules in the country, one that ranks top 10 nationally. Kansas is one of two teams in the entire country that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’ve used that balanced attack to pile up the most top 50 wins in the country with 10 as well. Statistically, this Kansas team towers over just about anyone in the country, but there’s something about them that continues to make me hesitant on drinking the kool-aid. As great as Thomas Robinson is, this team will only go as far as the guards take them specifically, Tyshawn Taylor. He’s silenced critics in his senior season to this point but I can’t help but feel he will be the reason Kansas isn’t able to cut the nets down on April 2nd.
Next Big Game: 3/3 Vs. Texas Longhorns

#2 – MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (24-5) BIG 10 AP Poll: 6, Coaches Poll: 6
Death, taxes, and Izzo’s boys in March: 3 things you can always count on religiously. Typically the Spartans wait until later in the year to play their best ball but this year they’ve decided to show the country what they’re made of early. In my mind, Michigan State is the most cohesive unit in all the land and Tom Izzo claims this is the closest group of guys he’s ever coached. The Spartans dropped the first two games of the year to Carolina and Duke however I don’t put much stock in those games. Teams at that point are just seeing what they have, and aside from Draymond Green Michigan State was extremely wet behind the ears. Since then, MSU has won 24 of 27 and the 3 loses are by a combined 9 points. You’ll notice how these teams in the top 5 are extremely battled-tested and Sparty is no different. They’ve faced a top 10 schedule in the country yet that hasn’t slowed them down one bit. They’ve reeled off 9 wins against my top 50 including; 5 wins against my top 25. MSU is one of the best on the defensive end in the country and their offense ranks top 15 in efficiency as well. This team is flat out the real deal, and unquestionably the best team in the Big 10. Tom Izzo is an absolute monster bar none – and he’s been a cash cow for the sharp bettors going 18-8 against the spread.
Next Big Game: 2/28 @ Indiana Hoosiers

#1 – KENTUCKY WILDCATS (28-1) SEC AP Poll: 1, Coaches Poll: 1
The Kentucky Wildcats are the best team in College Basketball, and it’s not close. UK ranks top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the only team in the nation that can attest to such accolades. They have 7 wins against my top 50, and have gone 5-1 against my top 25. Unquestionably, the most talented team in the nation. The questions sharp bettors have is, will this team fold down the stretch come tournament time due to inexperience and youth. It’s a great question, but they’ve proven time and time again this team is different in end of game situations. At Indiana down 10 with 9 minutes to go they fought back and lost on a miracle buzzer beater. Down to North Carolina the entire game and they out play a veteran ball club down the stretch. Hostile environment at Memorial? Not a problem as they held the Commodores scoreless the last 4 minutes. Down 13 at the break to Mississippi State? Why worry UK wins by nearly double digits! There are different types of ungodly talents when it comes to the game of basketball. You have the Kobe Bryant’s of the world, and then you have the Vince Carter’s. Point being, DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall aren’t winners – never have been, never will be. They lack the “it” factor. Anthony Davis has his head on shoulders and he’s a born leader and winner. His makeup is completely different than a Demarcus Cousins or John Wall. The rest of the starting line up is made up of a senior in Miller and two sophomores who know the ropes in Lamb and Jones. This version of Kentucky is far better than any other Coach Cal has had because they defend – that’s their calling card. There is nothing sharp about trying to be the cool kid who predicts Kentucky’s demise early in the tournament, this team glides to the final four.
Next Big Game: 3/4 @ Florida Gators

Missed #25 – #21 Click Here!
Missed #20 – #16 Click Here!
Missed #15 – #11 Click Here!

We’re getting to the meat and potatoes of my Top 25 college basketball Power Rankings – and it’s a perfect time with conference tournaments and march madness approaching. You must remain extremely mindful that these are to act as a guide when making your basketball picks, and not the end all say all. Meaning: Just because we have Team X rated two spots higher than Team Y, it doesn’t mean you blindly take Team X. You absolutely can not neglect pertinent elements like price point, line value, perception, motivation, situation, match up styles and the many other facets you must consider when sports betting.

Without further ado…

#10 – WISCONSIN BADGERS (20-8) BIG 10 AP Poll: 16, Coaches Poll: 15
Despite a half-dozen players auditioning for a role in the upcoming 2012 movie; Rocky VI “The Return of Drago,” Wisconsin has managed to gear their secondary focus on “breaking” the Big 10. Bo Ryan is like a robot, wash, rinse, dry, repeat, as he continues to recruit the same style of player and hasn’t veered away from a game plan he created pre-shot clock. Jokes aside, this Badgers team plays great team ball and is one of the top 3 defenses in the entire country. There’s no quit in this team, they’re tough, extremely physical – and that style of play translates well when you get outside the Big 10. No question the Badgers lack playmakers, but regardless of the talent deficiency Wisconsin has been in just about every big game they’ve had racking up 4 wins against my top 50 including; 2 wins against my top 25. For the players and coaches battling out on the court it’s all about wins and losses, but when sharp guys dissect teams we factor in “quality loses.” They fell short at North Carolina by 3 points. Lost a heart breaker at home in overtime to Michigan State. Lost by two buckets to Ohio State. At the end of the day a few bounces here or there throughout the course of a 40-minute contest could have turned the tide in Wisconsin’s favor. The Badgers have a big test Sunday at the Schottenstein Center against Ohio State, and follow that up with tough home games versus Minnesota and Illinois, so keep an eye on those 3 games and see how this team trends heading into March. This is by far the worst team of my top 10, and is on the verge of slipping out.
Next Big Game: 2/26 @ Ohio State Buckeyes

#9 – DUKE BLUE DEVILS (24-4) ACC AP Poll: 5, Coaches Poll: 4
It’s unfortunate we live in a society today where everyone is so prone to hate – and in the hoops world Duke tops the hate list. The Blue Devils are the official dead horse that everyone likes to beat. Rumor has it, mascot changes are being mulled over as I type. We spoke previously about the volatility of teams with impact freshman, and Duke is a perfect example. Their very best player is freshman point guard Austin Rivers, and boy did he have his fair share of mental lapses early on. In fact, people “in the know” were told the coaching staff was seriously concerned about his ability to play the point and contemplated moving him to off guard. Nearly 30-games later, Austin’s the savior of the Blue Devils and the unquestioned leader. He’s improved drastically on defense, became a floor leader whose cut down the mistakes, and his range from the point guard spot makes him unguardable because his unique blow by ability. Duke’s tallied 24 wins playing top rated strength of schedule in the country, and they’ve managed to pick up 8 wins against my top 50 including; 5 wins against my top 25. The Blue Devils resume is as good as anybody in the country, and for the first time in a while they will have earned whatever seed the selection committee appoints them.
Next Big Game: 3/3 Vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

#8 – WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS (25-4) MISSOURI VALLEY AP Poll: 19, Coaches Poll: 19
Do not adjust your computer screen this is for real – and the Shockers are for real, too! Wichita State is far and away the most underrated team in the country, and it’s not close! This might not look that dramatic compared to the AP and Coaches poll, but this is the first week all year they’ve cracked both polls top 25. Meanwhile, the Shockers have been a resident of my top 15 for the last 8 weeks. Don’t let the smaller Missouri Valley conference fool you, Wichita State has still played a top 60 schedule. They hang 78 points per game off 49% shooting, share the ball well, and for a smaller team are absolute glass eaters – they do everything extremely well. Wichita State is equally good on the road (10 wins) as they are in the comfy confines of the Charles Koch Arena – and that’s key come tournament time. The shockers have 3 big wins against my top 50, and they’ve made some really quality opponents look pathetic beating UNLV by 19, Creighton by 21, and Davidson by 17. Wichita State was snubbed from the big dance last season, and instead of sulking and getting bounced early in the NIT they decided to man up and crush the competition on their way to cutting the nets – So they’re no stranger to making a tournament run. If this team can make it to the elite 8 the sharp guys are going to yell; “Yahtzee” as we have futures on the Shockers as high as 250-1.
Next Big Game: N/A

#7 – MISSOURI TIGERS (25-3) BIG 12 AP Poll: 3, Coaches Poll: 3
I was never a fan of Frank Haith during his tenure at Miami, so to say I’m surprised at how well Missouri is doing would be an understatement. His Tigers are an offensive machine that can do it all on that end of the court – one of the best passing teams in the country and that’s led to lights out shooting with Missouri draining nearly 50% of its shots. The Tigers are far and away the most efficient offense in all of college basketball, but the question every sharp bettor has about Missouri is; “at what point does this team wear down?” They play a frenetic style of basketball on both ends of the floor and only 6-guys are seeing major minutes. Most thought the tread would wear off the tires after a loss to Oklahoma State in late January, but Missouri has rebounded winning 7 of 8 since that time including; wins against Texas, Baylor, and Kansas. I continue to look for “chinks in the armor,” when talking Tigers hoops, but as you dig deeper and deeper they keep on impressing with a perfect 4-0 record against my top 25, and 8 total victories against my top 50. Missouri is a match up nightmare as they have 4 guys on the court at all times that can dribble, drive, and shoot. You do not want to see these guys in March.
Next Big Game: 2/25 @ Kansas Jay hawks

#6 – NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (24-4) ACC AP Poll: 7, Coaches Poll: 7
I don’t know about you, but I’ve been waiting for the Carolina team from the end of last season to appear before me. I originally thought this Tar Heels group was simply going through the motions knowing what the ultimate goal at the end of the road was, but something’s missing. Despite my leeriness, North Carolina has made tremendous strides on the defensive end – and is one of the more balanced teams in the country ranking top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They catapulted those accomplishments into 5 wins against my top 50 including; 2 big time wins against my top 10. In addition, they have a “quality loss” by 1-point against Kentucky at Rupp Arena where the Wildcats currently hold a 50-game win streak, the longest in the nation. North Carolina closes out the season at Duke, and I feel like if either of these teams can parlay an regular season ACC championship with ACC tournament championship they can land a #1 seed overall from the selection committee come March.
Next Big Game: 3/3 @ Duke Blue Devils

Missed #25 – #21 Click Here!
Missed #20 – #16 Click Here!

We’re back with teams #15 – #11 without diatribes against those who contribute to the AP and Coaches polls. Instead, we’ll harness that energy towards mainstream media. This is simply an effort to better educate those in the Sports Betting racket as much as humanly possible. Admittedly, we all love to tune into the major sports outlets on television, radio, and in print, but remain mindful that their goal is to entertain. Clearly, solid information is passed along the way but without an entertainment value they know your eyes and ears won’t oblige. Now, what you do with that information can sometimes be detrimental to your money if you’re using it as a guideline for sports betting. It’s great when former players and coaches give you a Free Pick on the big game, but telling you Duke is going to beat Maryland in Cameron is about as valuable as a fart in a space suit when the betting line is Duke -16. Proceed with caution!

Lets get it on…

#15-SAINT LOUIS BILLIKENS (22-5) A 10 AP Poll: NR, Coaches Poll: NR
I love Temple this year, but Rick Majerus and the Billikens are the king of the castle in the A-10 conference. Before you say; “But wait, Temple beat St. Louis and will likely win the conference, how can they be better?” I know, sharp bettors are weird! It’s great you match up well against a specific team but reality is there are 343 other teams in the country, and Saint Louis has been better against them. Temple ranks slightly better than St. Louis in offense, but the Billikens are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Come tournament time you can always rely on defense, but offense at the college level tends to pull a Houdini-act as pressure mounts (just ask Butler after last year’s final). The Billikens aren’t as tested as I would like having only played 2 teams in my top 25, but they weren’t outclassed in those match ups by any means losing both by an average of 4.5 points. St. Louis has racked up 7 wins against my top 100 and I like a team that’s savvy, has some experience, plays defense, and has an all-world coach that can prepare them for the ins and outs of the NCAA tournament. The Billikens are one of the most underrated teams in the country and will offer value on college basketball’s biggest stage.
Next Big Game: 2/28 Vs. Xavier Musketeers

#14-MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES (23-5) BIG EAST AP Poll 10, Coaches Poll 10
Buzz Williams always has his Golden Eagles swarming as they play a relentless brand of basketball from tip to final whistle. The kids on this team would do anything for their coach, and because of that this is one of the tightest knit groups in all of college basketball. Marquette can score with the best of them and that’s because they share the ball as well as anybody in the country translating into a team capable of shooting lights out. Despite how the program reads, their tallest starter stands at 6’6″, so to have the success Marquette is having they’ve earned the award of being my “All Effort Team.” With the potential to win 15 Big East games you know it’s been a solid season regardless if the conference is down. Marquette’s reeled off 4 wins against my top 50, and as it stands has the opportunity to tally up 3 more on that list as they close out the regular season. Keep an eye on the Golden Eagles over the next 10 days as they have an opportunity to prove their worth, or let us know they’re an overvalued commodity heading into March.
Next Big Game: 2/24 @ West Virginia

#13-INDIANA HOOSIERS (21-7) BIG 10 AP Poll: 23, Coaches Poll: 24
Hats off to Tom Crean, he’s quickly becoming a legend in the State of Indiana as he rejuvenates this Hoosiers team and leads them back to where Indiana basketball should be. Nobody thought the fix would be this quick, but when you knock off #1 Kentucky, #2 Ohio State, and #13 Michigan it shows people you’re back on the map and can compete with the very best. In addition to the three monumental achievements previously mentioned, Indiana has tacked on 2 more wins against my top 50, so they’re as battled tested as they come. In fact, showing a potential to beat anybody on any given night is the sole reason the Hoosiers are even ranked this high. Their struggles away from Assembly Hall are extremely alarming as the gauntlet that is March Madness rapidly approaches. As big as the game against Michigan State on the 28th is, I want to see what this Hoosiers team does in their last Big 10 road game. If Indiana can pick up a road win at Minnesota in an unfriendly environment it will go a long way in convincing those that have justified concerns. Ease our minds, IU!
Next Big Game: 2/26 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

#12-FLORIDA GATORS (22-6) SEC AP Poll: 12, Coaches Poll: 11
The Florida Gators have one of the highest powered offenses in the country behind coach Billy Donovan. Their efficiency rating on that end of the floor is through the roof and the talent on this Gators team matches up with anybody in the country. Before I continue, this team goes as far as Erving Walker takes them. He’s a liability on defense, and his shot selection and decision making is horrific at best. Can he be one of the better players on this Gators team? Yes! The good version of Erving Walker isn’t hoisting 30-footers over larger defenders, but is breaking down his man off the dribble, finding Boynton and Beal on the wings and getting the ball down low to Young. When he does that, it allows the Gators to compete against anybody – and that’s the reason they have 4 wins against my top 50 including; 2 wins against my top 25. Florida is another team to pay attention to as the regular season concludes, they go on the road to Georgia and Vanderbilt, then finish the year at home against Kentucky. I took a flyer on Florida earlier in the season at 45-1 to cut the nets down, but remember, we take positions on long shots like this to come back later and earn off them. Can they win the National Championship? Probably not, but they certainly can make an elite 8 run to where we can hedge off that and earn profits.
Next Big Game: 2/28 @ Vanderbilt Commodores

#11-NEW MEXICO LOBOS (21-7) MOUNTAIN WEST AP Poll: 18, Coaches Poll: 21
This doesn’t look like a drastic difference to what both the AP and Coaches polls put out. However; the difference is New Mexico just cracked the top 25 in both the aforementioned polls this week, while New Mexico has been in my top 15 since the middle of January. It’s all about getting ahead of the market place on these teams. Bottom line, the Lobos were riddled with injuries early in the season and it caused them to drop games they wouldn’t lose now. They also had a big man that was more concerned about his future NBA team, than his present team. Drew Gordon had bulked up and put on weight at the advice from scouts, but he was extremely uncomfortable playing at his increased mass. Gordon has since shed the excess pounds throughout the season as he’s found a comfortable playing weight, and now he’s back to being one of the best bigs’ in the country. They play in the unheralded Mountain West so not many people get to see their games, but they’ve managed 3 wins against my top 50 including; 2 wins against my top 25. This New Mexico team can do just about everything well, and I expect the Lobos to make some noise come tournament time under coach, Steve Alford.
Next Big Game: 2/25 @ TCU Horned Frogs