Follow On Twitter: @PayneInsider
While professional bettors used All-Star break to recharge the batteries and shift focus to the football season rapidly approaching, the rest of the free world went about their week as usual – and maybe even tuned into that eight-zip snoozer produced by Bud Selig’s gang. Reality is, we’re all just biding time until the dog days of summer conclude so we can ditch the lumber and pick up the pigskin.
But college football is 48 days away still, and the NFL season doesn’t kick off for 54 more days.
Cash has always made my heart grow fonder, so why not continue to extract profits from the diamond to fulfill our burning desire within for football?
Here’s a look, a very long look, at what unfolded in the first-half, and a few tidbits that will help you turn a profit in the back-half of the MLB season.
5 MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS: (Based on $100 money line wager per game)
1. Pittsburgh Pirates (48-37) +$1,900
2. Baltimore Orioles (45-40) +$1,240
3. Washington Nationals (49-34) +$1,070
4. New York Mets (46-40) +$1,000
5. New York Yankees (52-33) +$900
If you found yourself backing the five ball clubs listed above you’ve likely enjoyed a profitable first half of baseball. Now, on to the teams that haven’t left you feeling quite as cozy inside. In fact, if you bet hard earned greenbacks on the first team listed below you’re likely feeling financial swoons worse than our European friends.
5 MOST UNPROFITABLE TEAMS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (37-50) -$2,460
2. Colorado Rockies (33-52) -$1,560
3. Milwaukee Brewers (40-45) -$1,300
4. San Diego Padres (34-53) -$1,200
5. Houston Astros (33-53) -$1,150
Unquestionably, information is the most powerful tool in sports betting, but baseball is a sport you can beat with top notch statistical driven data when applied correctly. Exhibit A: The Houston Astros. One of leagues least profitable teams overall, but when put in the right statistical situation (the comfy confines of Minute Made Park) can earn profits with the best of them.
5 MOST PROFITABLE HOME TEAMS:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates (29-14) +$1,500
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (27-16) +$800
3. San Francisco Giants (26-16) +$740
4. Houston Astros (24-21) +700
5A. New York Mets (26-20) +490
5B. Oakland Athletics (24-20) +490
5 MOST UNPROFITABLE HOME TEAMS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (17-27) -$2,110
2. Seattle Mariners (16-25) -$1,070
3. Kansas City Royals (14-23) -$1,000
4A. Colorado Rockies (18-25) -$980
4B. Boston Red Sox (22-24) -$980
5. San Diego Padres (17-27) -$890
Every year different situations present themselves – the easiest to identify being “splits.” While most enjoy sleeping in their own bed at night, there are teams anxious to leave town and remove themselves from distraction. The Kansas City Royals fit that mold and play exponentially better ball on the highway. Discovering the reason why is pertinent. Being able to then identify if that reason has enough legs to apply, and yield a return on investment is what separates professional from recreational bettors.
5 MOST PROFITABLE AWAY TEAMS:
1. Atlanta Braves (26-17) +$1,260
2. Chicago White Sox (23-17) +$1,110
3. Baltimore Orioles (23-20) +$1,060
4. New York Yankees (27-17) +$930
5. Kansas City Royals (23-24) +$840
5 MOST UNPROFITABLE AWAY TEAMS:
1. Houston Astros (9-32) -$1,850
2. Chicago Cubs (14-32) -$1,100
3. Milwaukee Brewers (18-24) -$820
4. Colorado Rockies (15-27) -$580
5. Toronto Blue Jays (20-24) -$360
Constantly, I hear recreational bettors say; “No way, I can’t back a team like…” I get it, I really do. But you’re missing maximum profit capability when automatically weeding teams out before digging deep – and frequently, when finding something on a poor team the value is tenfold due to horrific public perception. The Houston Astros are the consummate example, winning just 22% of road games and burning money faster than Antoine Walker. Thus far, Houston’s season has been summed up by one facet: Starting Pitching. Despite Bill James’ theory of every day players being exponentially more valuable to their team than starting pitchers, the Astros would undoubtedly be first in line to dispute that theory. Houston’s team ERA on the highway is 2.19 higher than at Minute Made Park (3.47). Don’t discriminate, bad teams can earn you money, too!
* * *
Next, I’ll dive into the comfiest confines for hurlers, as well as those parks requiring a pitcher to bring their “A” game. When breaking these down it’s imperative to factor in all controllable elements. Constantly, I hear folks complain about New Yankee Stadium being the size of my backyard. Reality is, this park shouldn’t discourage you from playing unders when things align. It’s currently ranked in the bottom half of MLB with the team playing a majority of its games there ranked 5th in offensive production. In fact, 26 of 41 games at New Yankee Stadium went under the posted total in the first half. Ask yourself, if the Padres played at Yankee stadium and brought the leagues worst offense with them would your perception of the park change? Or vice versa, if the Yankees played home games at Petco Park would it even be on the cusp for Top 5 pitcher friendly parks? This is a thinking mans game, if you aren’t asking yourself these types of questions when deciphering information you have no chance at being a profitable bettor. Certain parks play better at particular times of the day, and with uncontrollable elements. Overs during a hot day at Great American Ball Park, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington at night, overs at Wrigley Field field when the wind is blowing out – and yes, unders at Wrigley Field when the wind is blowing in. How can the same exact park be advantageous to completely opposite elements? SITUATIONS! It’s great to have the advantage of a particular park in your back pocket, but that’s factored into the number, whereas bookmakers have a tougher time accounting for uncontrollable factors.
TOP 5 PITCHER FRIENDLY PARKS: (Based on 2012 First Half Data)
1. AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)
2. Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)
3. Citi Field (New York, NY)
4. Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California)
5. Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)
TOP 5 HITTER FRIENDLY PARKS:
1. Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)
2. Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)
3. Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
4. Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)
5. U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)
* * *
Continuing forward we’ll address starting pitching – guys you should look to avoid, or even fade in the right situation. These pitchers simply can not continue their current form and regression is imminent. There’s also pitchers on the other side of the fence, who we think are on the cusp of turning things around based on prior history, and how unlucky they’ve been. Using a Sabermetric way of thinking is really helpful in identifying pitching form. Using things like BABIP (batting average on balls in play), FIP (fielding independent pitching), and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) really gives a better idea of how lucky, or unlucky a pitcher is. Gauging pitchers by ERA (earned run average) is really an archaic handicapping tool.
5 PITCHERS FACING REGRESSION:
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Ryan Vogelson
3. Chris Capuano
4. Matt Harrison
5. Jeremy Hellickson
5 PITCHERS TO PROGRESS:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. Cliff Lee
3. Josh Johnson
4. Jason Vargas
5. Jon Lester
* * *
Additionally, breaking down second-half schedules is imperative to better gauge how things will play out once the dust settles. Sure, the New York Mets have been a fantastic story thus far, but based on their second-half schedule it’s likely wiser to look towards Atlanta in the NL East to give Washington a run for their money. I also didn’t want to include teams like the Oakland Athletics on this list because simply put; they have no shot! Sorry, Billy. If having the third toughest schedule down the stretch wasn’t tough enough, Oakland’s staring at the poop shoot of two of the best teams in MLB. This list includes teams in contention with the toughest, and easiest paths to a division crown.
5 TOUGHEST SECOND-HALF SCHEDULES:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. New York Mets
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. St. Louis Cardinals
5 EASIEST SECOND-HALF SCHEDULES:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox
* * *
Moving ahead, lets take a glimpse at what the future holds in terms of division winners, as well as final MLB win projections for all 30 teams. These projections are formulated from my true numbers in conjunction with two of the larger syndicate groups in the country we share information with on a daily basis. The advantage being, we cover nearly the entire country with me located in the south, and the two groups split amongst the coasts.
2012 MLB DIVISION WINNER PROJECTIONS:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL EAST: New York Yankees
AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox
AL WEST: Texas Rangers
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL EAST: Washington Nationals
NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals
NL WEST: San Francisco Giants
2012 MLB FINAL WIN PROJECTIONS:
1. Rangers W: 95 – L: 67
2. Yankees W: 93.5 – L: 68.5
3. Nationals W: 93 – L: 69
4. Angels W: 92.5 – L: 69.5
5. Giants W: 90 – L: 72
6. Cardinals W: 89.5 – L: 72.5
7. White Sox W: 88 – L: 74
8. Pirates W: 87 – L: 75
9. Reds W: 86.5 – L: 75.5
10. Red Sox W 86: – L: 76
11. Tigers W: 84.5 – L: 77.5
12. Rays 84 W:84 – L: 78
13. Dodgers W: 84 – L: 78
14. Orioles 83.5 W:84 – L: 77.5
15. Diamondbacks W: 83 – L: 79
16. Braves W: 82.5 – L: 79.5
17. Mets W: 81.5 – L: 80.5
18. Indians W: 80.5 – L: 81.5
19. Brewers W: 80 – L 82
20. Blue Jays W: 80 – L: 82
21. Phillies W: 79 – L: 83
22. Athletics W: 78.5 – L: 83.5
23. Marlins W: 77 – L: 85
24. Royals W: 70.5 – L: 91.5
25. Twins W: 69.5 – L: 92.5
26. Cubs W: 68.5 – L: 93.5
27. Mariners W: 68 – L: 94
28. Rockies W: 67.5 – L: 94.5
29. Astros W: 66 – L: 96
30. Padres W: 65 – L: 97
* * *
Finally, lets dig into some future bets that show great value-potential not only from a cashing perspective, but futures that appear to present easy hedge opportunities down the road guaranteeing earning capability.
TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES:
San Francisco Giants 14/1 ($100 bet wins $1,400)
L.A. Angels 12/1 ($100 bet wins $1,200)
TO WIN THE DIVISION:
NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals 2.5/1 ($100 bet wins $250)
NL CENTRAL: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.5/1 ($100 bet wins $350)
NL WEST: San Francisco Giants 1/1 ($100 bet wins $100)
This concludes our MLB Second-Half Betting preview. I hope you were able to stay awake reading its entirety. Admittedly, it was touch and go a few times for me while writing.
*** Check our discounted Second-Half MLB Package that gets you every selection through the World Series! ***