Archives September 2012

Written By: @PayneInsider

Sports books and sharp bettors were exuberant, but the overwhelming majority of folks that wagered on the Packers-Seahawks Monday Night Football escapade probably felt like they did as a child on Christmas morning opening up tube socks from the aunt they can’t stand.


THE STAGE: Green Bay, which closed 3.5-point favorites while garnering roughly 70-80% of all bets-leading 12-7 on the final play of the game, when Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson chucked a prayer towards the back corner of the end zone. Disregarding multiple offensive pass interferences, two officials had conflicting opinions on whether the offensive or defensive player caught the ball, before ultimately deciding that Seattle receiver Golden Tate had come down with the pass.

THE DECISION: Sports betting reporter, @DavidPurdum spoke with Jeff Sherman, assistant director of the race and sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton on what the controversial touchdown meant to their bottom line: It was a “6-figure” swing in favor of our book, “85% of bets were on the Packers.” Sherman went on to describe the scene at the LVH SuperBook as; “chaotic disbelief.” Later on, Sherman says he estimates that the game shifted $15 million in Nevada alone.

ESPN Sports Business Reporter, @DarrenRovell chatted with Mike Perry, a spokesman for betting website Sportsbook.ag. Perry’s estimate in the money swing on the call at the end of the game is closer to $200 million and $250 million worldwide. Perry said that 70 to 80 percent of the money on his site was put on the Packers, which is in line with the percentages bet in Las Vegas.

THE AFTERMATH: Clearly, the Packers’ got shafted by overwhelmed replacement officials and received the shortest end of the stick, but what does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Teams that start 1-2 make the playoffs just 27% of the time, whereas, teams who start 2-1 reach the postseason at a 52% clip.

Innocent bystanders (San Francisco, St. Louis and Arizona) were also dramatically affected by the outcome of Monday night’s tragedy. Despite being the worst division in football since realignment in 2002, the NFC West race is always hotly contested-evident with the division being decided by two games or less seven times in the last decade.

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Green Valley Ranch casino in Las Vegas:

Written By: @JamesFeldman – Professional bettor and BetFair correspondent

QPR vs. Chelsea

This EPL game is a huge West London derby clash, which has intensified over the past year – mainly due to the John Terry/Anton Ferdinand saga.

Last season, when Chelsea went on the road to QPR, they lost 1-0. However, they did have a player sent off. Even after Chelsea had a player sent off, they were all over QPR, and just could not snatch an equaliser. When the two sides met next at Chelsea, there was only one team who was going to come away with the three points. Chelsea dominated right from the whistle, with Daniel Sturridge getting Chelsea off the mark within the first minute. After leading 4-0 at half time, Chelsea finished the match 6-1 winners, with Fernando Torres even bagging a hat trick.

Although QPR have signed almost another teams worth of players this season, they are still yet to win a match to date. Compare this to Chelsea, whom have bought a handful of young, talented signings, who have helped Chelsea win the first three games of the season, and keep their 100% record so far.

With Chelsea’s new attacking style, and the way they played QPR in both games last season, I can only see Chelsea scoring a fair few goals today. Furthermore, Chelsea have two clean sheets from three games in the EPL so far, whereas QPR have conceded nine goals in their three games. Back Chelsea to win away at QPR today.

Recommended Football Picks:

Back Chelsea (@ QPR) @ [1.84 or -118]
Back Manchester City (@ Stoke) @ [1.70 or -142]
Back Fulham/West Brom – Draw @ [3.49 or +249]
Back Southampton/Arsenal under 3 goals @ [1.91 or -109]

Written by: @Payneinsider

College football storms out of the box faster than Seabiscuit at Santa Anita when Michigan meets Alabama in the marquee week one duel. JerryWorld in Dallas is the stage Saturday evening when the two heavy weights collide to set the BCS championship tone for 2012-13.


Expectations are high for the Wolverines’ coming into the season after an 11-win campaign in 2011-12. Brady Hoke has maize and blue faithful thinking National Championship, but that’s facetious thinking in my estimation. Michigan returns 13 starters from a team that caught all the breaks a season ago. They won every close game (those decided by 7 or less), while winning the turnover battle with a +7 differential. The schedule was cupcake city early on, where a young Michigan team was afforded the luxury of learning a new system on the fly. They started 5-0 (all home games), against teams that finished a combined 32-31 last season. Four of their toughest games against Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue and Nebraska were also played in the comfy confines of The Big House. This year, those four teams will be hosting Michigan while salivating at thoughts of revenge. Despite coming away victorious in the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech, it was quite an anomaly. Beamer’s boys out gained Michigan 2 to 1, holding the Wolverines’ to just 184 total yards. They were out rushed 3 to 1 and V-Tech had 10 more first downs. To this day, every time I see the score of that game I think my mind is playing tricks on me. Michigan might be in the hunt for a Big Ten title, but they have no shot at a National Championship – don’t think they come close to matching last season’s eleven wins, either. I have them rated 19th in my initial power ratings, and one of the sharpest betting syndicates I speak with has them barely inside the top 25. Regression is imminent for Brady Hoke in his sophomore season at Ann Arbor.

REBUILD – to make extensive repairs to: reconstruct. RELOAD – to replace. Again: anew. Most have a strong disdain for Nick Saban, but you must respect the job he’s done during his tenure in Tuscaloosa where the word REBUILD is frowned upon and to RELOAD is second nature. This season won’t be the exception despite losing eight starters to the NFL, including four first round picks. Tiger Stadium on November, 3rd appears to be the only speed bump that could knock the Crimson Tide train off track on its way to Sun Life Stadium January, 7th. Bama’ skeptics will focus on a team returning just 11 starters (only 5 on defense), but this is a team that won 8 games against SEC opponents by an average margin of 28.5 points last season. Even if there’s a slight regression this year, how low is the mean? A.J. McCarron inherits the leadership role after growing up before our very eyes during a 21-ZIP shellacking of LSU in the National Championship last January. The onus will be on McCarron, his four returning offensive lineman, and the running game to sustain drives and help a young Alabama defense get acclimated to Saban’s complex system. Alabama is favored in 11 of 12 contests this season, the lone exception being the aforementioned LSU game (1.5-point underdog currently). Most sharp bettors believe Arkansas is overrated – great skill position players, but light in the trenches yet again. Bama travels to Missouri and Tennessee in successive weeks but are aligned two-touchdown favorites over each. Auburn, the last game on the docket could present trouble for the Tide’, but it’s played at Bryant Denny off a bye week (apologies Western Carolina) and Vegas has aligned Alabama early 19.5-point favorites. All indications point to this being a one-game season for the Tide’.

Most are hyping Alabama-Michigan because they see #2 Vs #8 in the polls. In the betting world, this isn’t much of a game as Alabama is favored by 14. We saw what Bud Foster’s defense did with time to prepare for a one-dimensional Michigan offense – we should expect similar success for Saban’s defense in a comparable situation. Nick is one of the best at setting up a game plan with extended time, evident by his 8-1 ATS mark during his tenure at Bama’ in week 1 and bowl games. The strength of Alabama on offense is the weakness of Michigan on defense. Alabama should be able to dictate the trenches and wear on the Wolverines’ as the game progresses. Alabama opened -11 on August, 2nd and sharp money has been trickling in on the Tide’ ever since, moving the line a full 3 points despite more of the bets coming on Michigan. Nick Saban has always been a friend to the betting man, sporting a 38-26-1 record against the spread at Alabama. With 52.38% being your break even point, Saban’s 59+ cover percentage leaves his backers usually feeling satisfied. Nick’s success against the spread is truly amazing because Alabama is such a public team their lines are always inflated. His style is conducive to covering spreads because they can run for points while shortening the game and killing clock better than anyone. Saban isn’t built like most – he has a killer instinct. You’re fooling yourself if you don’t think he wants to repay Michigan for all the years he and his ego played second fiddle at Michigan State. I’ve yet to place a wager on this game, but it’s Alabama or nothing.

Update 5:05 p.m With public money continuing to slowly trickle in on Michigan as game time approaches the spread has come off the key number of 14 and down to 13 and even 12.5 at BetCris. I’m now jumping into the mix and have placed a wager on Alabama -12.5. We were always going to be on this side, but being able to gauge market temperature is crucial. By waiting, we have beaten the market by 1.5 points. My “TRUE LINE” on this game is Alabama -18.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: Alabama 38, Michigan 20

Written by: JamesFeldman – Professional Bettor and BetFair correspondent.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

This is an intriguing game, and most definitely the most exciting from this weekend’s EPL schedule.

Last weekend Liverpool proved (by drawing 2-2 vs. City) that they are a lot better than people gave them credit for after their opening day defeat to West Brom (3-0). Arsenal have surprisingly not scored a goal yet in the EPL. They have acquired a new attacking partnership in Podolski and Giroud, however they’ve yet to find their goalscoring touch. However, a much needed improvement by Arsenals standards is that they have managed to keep a clean sheet in both of their games so far this season.

Liverpool looked good last weekend, but they still have that inconsistency to them that doesn’t bode well for the long road ahead this season. They did play in Europe in mid-week as well, against a Hearts side who for the majority of the game gave them a run for their money. Arsenal will have had a whole week to prepare for this game, added extra time for their team to gel.

I feel this game will be a close encounter, as it always is between these two. Liverpool will want to prove that they can consistently play as well as they did last week against the top EPL teams, and Arsenal will want to prove that they can score and keep a clean sheet in a game. I don’t see this game being as high scoring as it was last week, and because the two teams could quite easily out-do the other and win, it’s too difficult to pick a winner.

RECOMMENDED BET: Liverpool/Arsenal UNDER 2.5 goals @ [1.88 or -113.6]