Archives 2012

Written By: @PayneInsider

Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants
Favorite: Tigers -175
Underdog: Giants +155

Whether you’re in the dugout playing 162 games plus playoffs and world series or you’re on the sidelines betting, Major League Baseball is the ultimate grind. Each game is its own entity and a small spec to the 5,000 piece puzzle. Recreational bettors will see Justin Verlander on the bump in Game 1 with the potential to pitch three games in the World Series and assume the results are a forgone conclusion, thus, not wavering when laying the wood. But remember, each game throughout the course of the season is a tiny piece to the puzzle.

The math guys have spoken: Detroit becomes World Series Champions 56% of the time. Recreational bettors who ponied up and paid -175 are jubilant roughly 5.5 times out of 10. Unfortunately, for recreational bettors they don’t realize they’re paying a premium on the Tigers. Sure, APPLE is a great company and stock to own if you had the the foresight to purchase at $200 per share. But, what about now at $600 per share? Same concept applies here.

With the above odds; Tigers -175/Giants +155 you would need the Detroit Tigers to win the World Series 61.9% of the time JUST TO BREAK EVEN! Betting on money line sports is a completely different animal. Sure, the Yankees’ win roughly 100 games every season, but if you’re laying 2/1 every night you’re going to lose money long term. It’s one of the few sports where you can hit 61.7% (100-62), and lose money. 100 WINS X $100 = +$10,000. 62 LOSSES X $200 = -$12,400. As gamblers, we don’t get paid in percentages. 61.7% doesn’t pay the bills, only cash does.

If you read our MLB second-half betting preview (neglecting our brain fart on the Athletics’), and bet the San Francisco Giants at 14-1 to win the World Series you’re sitting pretty right now. Effectively, beating the market by more than 900%! I’m against hedging for the most part (it’s for landscapers), but a 5-month investment at 14-1 I simply can’t argue with those wanting to guarantee profit.

If you didn’t read our second-half MLB preview, I would suggest siding with the math geeks. Math plays an integral role in baseball handicapping, more than any other sport. If you’re a sports bettor that wagers daily, you can not pass up the value San Francisco +155 or better presents, specifically, with home field advantage and National League rules in your back pocket for the majority of the World Series.

Written By: @PayneInsider

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Chicago Bears -6
Over/Under: 47

One of the toughest games on the Week 7 board, so it’s no surprise our group and a majority of sharp bettors I speak with are treading lightly. Based on the math, our TRUE NUMBER is Chicago -7.25, so there’s SOME value getting the Bears’ under a touchdown with “SEVEN” being the second largest key number in the NFL with roughly 11% of games landing there.

Match ups, situations, and information play a significant role in this game. Hard to neglect the fact that NFC underdogs are a mind blowing 37-7-2 ATS this season (83%), but Schwartz’ Lions have covered the number in just 39% of their road games since he took over in 2009. Chicago is second in the NFL in takeaways averaging 3.4 per game – that can’t withstand the test of time. Chicago’s 4-1 but their 5 opponents have a combined record of 14-18, hardly anything to write home to mom about.

An important element most recreational bettors neglect in their numbers is special teams – in a game like this it should be at the forefront of your handicapping. The Bears’ special team unit has been one of the leagues best, ranked 3rd in the NFL overall. Conversely, special teams is Detroit’s achilles heel ranked 31st. Pay close attention to the hidden yards racked up throughout the game.

For Detroit, the goal is maintaining offensive balance so Stafford doesn’t have to force the ball like he does so often. Since Leshoure entered the starting lineup, the Lions’ are averaging 3.7 points more per game – Mikel will look to impress in his return back home (Illinois).

I think Detroit is the more desperate of the two; Chicago can afford to drop a game. I know the Lions’ are the side two of the largest syndicate groups are looking towards but again, neither has jumped in yet.

We saw early money come in on the UNDER 48 minutes after this line opened eight days ago. At the current number of 47 there’s still value as my true number is 44 – above the key number of 45. Anything at 45.5 or better is worth a look towards the under and I expect this to tick back up as recreational bettors enter the market closer to kickoff.

Written By: @PayneInsider

Sports books and sharp bettors were exuberant, but the overwhelming majority of folks that wagered on the Packers-Seahawks Monday Night Football escapade probably felt like they did as a child on Christmas morning opening up tube socks from the aunt they can’t stand.


THE STAGE: Green Bay, which closed 3.5-point favorites while garnering roughly 70-80% of all bets-leading 12-7 on the final play of the game, when Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson chucked a prayer towards the back corner of the end zone. Disregarding multiple offensive pass interferences, two officials had conflicting opinions on whether the offensive or defensive player caught the ball, before ultimately deciding that Seattle receiver Golden Tate had come down with the pass.

THE DECISION: Sports betting reporter, @DavidPurdum spoke with Jeff Sherman, assistant director of the race and sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton on what the controversial touchdown meant to their bottom line: It was a “6-figure” swing in favor of our book, “85% of bets were on the Packers.” Sherman went on to describe the scene at the LVH SuperBook as; “chaotic disbelief.” Later on, Sherman says he estimates that the game shifted $15 million in Nevada alone.

ESPN Sports Business Reporter, @DarrenRovell chatted with Mike Perry, a spokesman for betting website Sportsbook.ag. Perry’s estimate in the money swing on the call at the end of the game is closer to $200 million and $250 million worldwide. Perry said that 70 to 80 percent of the money on his site was put on the Packers, which is in line with the percentages bet in Las Vegas.

THE AFTERMATH: Clearly, the Packers’ got shafted by overwhelmed replacement officials and received the shortest end of the stick, but what does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Teams that start 1-2 make the playoffs just 27% of the time, whereas, teams who start 2-1 reach the postseason at a 52% clip.

Innocent bystanders (San Francisco, St. Louis and Arizona) were also dramatically affected by the outcome of Monday night’s tragedy. Despite being the worst division in football since realignment in 2002, the NFC West race is always hotly contested-evident with the division being decided by two games or less seven times in the last decade.

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Green Valley Ranch casino in Las Vegas:

Written By: @JamesFeldman – Professional bettor and BetFair correspondent

QPR vs. Chelsea

This EPL game is a huge West London derby clash, which has intensified over the past year – mainly due to the John Terry/Anton Ferdinand saga.

Last season, when Chelsea went on the road to QPR, they lost 1-0. However, they did have a player sent off. Even after Chelsea had a player sent off, they were all over QPR, and just could not snatch an equaliser. When the two sides met next at Chelsea, there was only one team who was going to come away with the three points. Chelsea dominated right from the whistle, with Daniel Sturridge getting Chelsea off the mark within the first minute. After leading 4-0 at half time, Chelsea finished the match 6-1 winners, with Fernando Torres even bagging a hat trick.

Although QPR have signed almost another teams worth of players this season, they are still yet to win a match to date. Compare this to Chelsea, whom have bought a handful of young, talented signings, who have helped Chelsea win the first three games of the season, and keep their 100% record so far.

With Chelsea’s new attacking style, and the way they played QPR in both games last season, I can only see Chelsea scoring a fair few goals today. Furthermore, Chelsea have two clean sheets from three games in the EPL so far, whereas QPR have conceded nine goals in their three games. Back Chelsea to win away at QPR today.

Recommended Football Picks:

Back Chelsea (@ QPR) @ [1.84 or -118]
Back Manchester City (@ Stoke) @ [1.70 or -142]
Back Fulham/West Brom – Draw @ [3.49 or +249]
Back Southampton/Arsenal under 3 goals @ [1.91 or -109]

Written by: @Payneinsider

College football storms out of the box faster than Seabiscuit at Santa Anita when Michigan meets Alabama in the marquee week one duel. JerryWorld in Dallas is the stage Saturday evening when the two heavy weights collide to set the BCS championship tone for 2012-13.


Expectations are high for the Wolverines’ coming into the season after an 11-win campaign in 2011-12. Brady Hoke has maize and blue faithful thinking National Championship, but that’s facetious thinking in my estimation. Michigan returns 13 starters from a team that caught all the breaks a season ago. They won every close game (those decided by 7 or less), while winning the turnover battle with a +7 differential. The schedule was cupcake city early on, where a young Michigan team was afforded the luxury of learning a new system on the fly. They started 5-0 (all home games), against teams that finished a combined 32-31 last season. Four of their toughest games against Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue and Nebraska were also played in the comfy confines of The Big House. This year, those four teams will be hosting Michigan while salivating at thoughts of revenge. Despite coming away victorious in the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech, it was quite an anomaly. Beamer’s boys out gained Michigan 2 to 1, holding the Wolverines’ to just 184 total yards. They were out rushed 3 to 1 and V-Tech had 10 more first downs. To this day, every time I see the score of that game I think my mind is playing tricks on me. Michigan might be in the hunt for a Big Ten title, but they have no shot at a National Championship – don’t think they come close to matching last season’s eleven wins, either. I have them rated 19th in my initial power ratings, and one of the sharpest betting syndicates I speak with has them barely inside the top 25. Regression is imminent for Brady Hoke in his sophomore season at Ann Arbor.

REBUILD – to make extensive repairs to: reconstruct. RELOAD – to replace. Again: anew. Most have a strong disdain for Nick Saban, but you must respect the job he’s done during his tenure in Tuscaloosa where the word REBUILD is frowned upon and to RELOAD is second nature. This season won’t be the exception despite losing eight starters to the NFL, including four first round picks. Tiger Stadium on November, 3rd appears to be the only speed bump that could knock the Crimson Tide train off track on its way to Sun Life Stadium January, 7th. Bama’ skeptics will focus on a team returning just 11 starters (only 5 on defense), but this is a team that won 8 games against SEC opponents by an average margin of 28.5 points last season. Even if there’s a slight regression this year, how low is the mean? A.J. McCarron inherits the leadership role after growing up before our very eyes during a 21-ZIP shellacking of LSU in the National Championship last January. The onus will be on McCarron, his four returning offensive lineman, and the running game to sustain drives and help a young Alabama defense get acclimated to Saban’s complex system. Alabama is favored in 11 of 12 contests this season, the lone exception being the aforementioned LSU game (1.5-point underdog currently). Most sharp bettors believe Arkansas is overrated – great skill position players, but light in the trenches yet again. Bama travels to Missouri and Tennessee in successive weeks but are aligned two-touchdown favorites over each. Auburn, the last game on the docket could present trouble for the Tide’, but it’s played at Bryant Denny off a bye week (apologies Western Carolina) and Vegas has aligned Alabama early 19.5-point favorites. All indications point to this being a one-game season for the Tide’.

Most are hyping Alabama-Michigan because they see #2 Vs #8 in the polls. In the betting world, this isn’t much of a game as Alabama is favored by 14. We saw what Bud Foster’s defense did with time to prepare for a one-dimensional Michigan offense – we should expect similar success for Saban’s defense in a comparable situation. Nick is one of the best at setting up a game plan with extended time, evident by his 8-1 ATS mark during his tenure at Bama’ in week 1 and bowl games. The strength of Alabama on offense is the weakness of Michigan on defense. Alabama should be able to dictate the trenches and wear on the Wolverines’ as the game progresses. Alabama opened -11 on August, 2nd and sharp money has been trickling in on the Tide’ ever since, moving the line a full 3 points despite more of the bets coming on Michigan. Nick Saban has always been a friend to the betting man, sporting a 38-26-1 record against the spread at Alabama. With 52.38% being your break even point, Saban’s 59+ cover percentage leaves his backers usually feeling satisfied. Nick’s success against the spread is truly amazing because Alabama is such a public team their lines are always inflated. His style is conducive to covering spreads because they can run for points while shortening the game and killing clock better than anyone. Saban isn’t built like most – he has a killer instinct. You’re fooling yourself if you don’t think he wants to repay Michigan for all the years he and his ego played second fiddle at Michigan State. I’ve yet to place a wager on this game, but it’s Alabama or nothing.

Update 5:05 p.m With public money continuing to slowly trickle in on Michigan as game time approaches the spread has come off the key number of 14 and down to 13 and even 12.5 at BetCris. I’m now jumping into the mix and have placed a wager on Alabama -12.5. We were always going to be on this side, but being able to gauge market temperature is crucial. By waiting, we have beaten the market by 1.5 points. My “TRUE LINE” on this game is Alabama -18.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: Alabama 38, Michigan 20

Written by: JamesFeldman – Professional Bettor and BetFair correspondent.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

This is an intriguing game, and most definitely the most exciting from this weekend’s EPL schedule.

Last weekend Liverpool proved (by drawing 2-2 vs. City) that they are a lot better than people gave them credit for after their opening day defeat to West Brom (3-0). Arsenal have surprisingly not scored a goal yet in the EPL. They have acquired a new attacking partnership in Podolski and Giroud, however they’ve yet to find their goalscoring touch. However, a much needed improvement by Arsenals standards is that they have managed to keep a clean sheet in both of their games so far this season.

Liverpool looked good last weekend, but they still have that inconsistency to them that doesn’t bode well for the long road ahead this season. They did play in Europe in mid-week as well, against a Hearts side who for the majority of the game gave them a run for their money. Arsenal will have had a whole week to prepare for this game, added extra time for their team to gel.

I feel this game will be a close encounter, as it always is between these two. Liverpool will want to prove that they can consistently play as well as they did last week against the top EPL teams, and Arsenal will want to prove that they can score and keep a clean sheet in a game. I don’t see this game being as high scoring as it was last week, and because the two teams could quite easily out-do the other and win, it’s too difficult to pick a winner.

RECOMMENDED BET: Liverpool/Arsenal UNDER 2.5 goals @ [1.88 or -113.6]

Chelsea vs. Newcastle

This match up is one of the highlights of this weekend’s EPL schedule. Both teams have aspirations of finishing within the top four this season, although Chelsea are the more likelier of the two, and no doubt have higher expectations of challenging for the Premiership title.


Newcastle was by far the surprise package last season. After selling Andy Carroll to Liverpool for £35 million, they entrusted manger Alan Pardew and chief scout Tony Carr with re-investing their transfer funds wisely. Not only did they spend the money well, Newcastle now has a good enough squad to consistently compete with the majority of the EPL. Chelsea was disappointing the majority of last season for numerous reasons. Fernando Torres didn’t reach the form that was expected of him, considering his goals tally during his time with Liverpool, as well as previous manager Andre Villas-Boas trying to change the majority of the Chelsea team too quickly, and unsettling a lot of the senior players. Since Chelsea and AVB parted ways, ex-Chelsea player Roberto Di Matteo took on the role of temporary manager to see Chelsea through to the end of the season. Not only did he improve on the sides EPL performances, he went on to defy all odds and win the European Champions League trophy – the most prestigious club trophy in the World. Since then he has been appointed permanent manager of Chelsea, and this summer has signed a new group of young, talented footballers (Eden Hazard, Marko Marin, Oscar, Azpilicueta), with many more linked to the West London side.

Although Chelsea lost the last game at home against Newcastle, earlier this year, it was amongst a difficult schedule for The Blues’ in which their main focus was progressing in the Champions League. Chelsea beat Newcastle at their ground a few months prior, 3-0. Newcastle has a few injury concerns at the moment. Defensive midfielder Cheick Tiote remains in doubt, as well as their main center back Fabricio Colocinni. One half of their star forward line also remains in doubt to start the game Saturday, with Demba Ba facing a late fitness test. Chelsea appears to have a fully fit squad, although some players are still lacking match fitness. Expect to see the same line-up Chelsea started with in their victory against Reading on Wednesday night, in which the home side came from behind to win 4-2.

Both sides have played mid-week games, with Newcastle flying to Greece for their Europa League game. They drew the game 1-1, although the majority of their first team players weren’t present. The season has just begun, so it’s difficult to gauge which side has the upper hand early on. However, Chelsea is notoriously fast starters and typically finds themselves located near the top of the table during the infant stages of the season. Furthermore, Chelsea is the home side going in to this weekend’s fixture. Newcastle has not only had to fly to and from Greece this week, they now face another away game, against a Chelsea side that is very strong at Stamford Bridge. Although Chelsea doesn’t seem to have the powerful side they did during previous years with Didier Drogba, expect them to control the majority of the possession Saturday. This should be a close fought game at the Bridge, although I feel Chelsea have the upper hand, and certainly the momentum after Wednesday nights win. My free pick is Chelsea to beat Newcastle on Saturday.

Liverpool vs. Man City

This is without a doubt the most exciting and mouth-watering fixture on offer from this weekends EPL schedule. Liverpool plays their first home game of the season — The 2011-12 EPL season saw yet another inconsistent year for Liverpool. Under the managerial guidance of former player and Anfield legend Kenny Dalglish, Liverpool spent over £75 million in the transfer window. These signings have come under huge scrutiny, especially Andy Carroll who cost the side £35 million and wasn’t nearly impressive as his previous stint at Newcastle. Furthermore, Stewart Downing who cost the club £20 million also didn’t make the impact that was expected of him. The left-footed winger finished the season without a goal or an assist in 36 appearances. Over the summer, Liverpool has appointed a new manager – Brendan Rodgers – and he’s brought with him from Swansea, Joe Allen for £15 million. City has been the total opposite, in terms of success. Manchester City won last seasons EPL title in one of the most exhilarating finales the Premiership has ever seen. After finding themselves 2-1 down at home to QPR with only injury time remaining, City managed to rally together and score two goals and clinch the title in dramatic fashion. City haven’t spent as much this season as in years prior, however; they have brought in talented youngster Jack Rodwell from Everton in a potential £15 million deal. The majority of their squad has remained intact, although Emmanuel Adebayor has recently left to join Tottenham – whom he was on loan to during last season.

The first game of this season saw Liverpool lose 3-0 to West Brom. Critics were quick to jump on the bandwagon, to all slate Liverpool, even though they had the majority of possession – and a player sent off. Give credit where it’s due, West Brom played far better with the proper game plan and tactics employed on Saturday — they deserved the three points. City started the defense of their title with a home win against newly promoted Southampton. They started as everyone expected, taking an early lead, but were surprisingly pegged back 2-1 after substitute Ricky Lambert inspired them. However, City’s dominance, especially at home shone through and with 20 minutes to go they equalized when Nasri rounded off the comeback with 10 minutes to spare giving City the 3-2 win. A downside to Manchester City’s win was the injury to star Argentinian striker Sergio Aguero. Aguero was instrumental in City winning the EPL last year, scoring 23 goals in his first season with the club. So expect a new striker to be bought before the transfer window finishes, if Aguero’s injury is as expected (leaving him unavailable for months). Fellow Argentinian Carlos Tevez, after having a very rocky and tumultuous season with the club and manager last season has returned to form and looks as lively and hungry as every to pound the back of the old onion bag. He scored the first goal in Sundays win Vs. Southampton, as well as scoring a fantastic goal against Chelsea in the Charity Shield.

Liverpool will be missing key central defender Daniel Agger after being sent off in their first game, so expect them to be shaky at the back. Man City look as strong as they were last season, and with the experience of winning the Premiership title in their back pocket, expect them to have a similar year. Yaya Toure has dominated the midfield for City, and although they’ve been playing a new 3-5-2 formation of late, expect them to revert back to their 4-2-3-1 formation Vs. Liverpool this weekend, depending on their striking options available and whom they decide to start. Expect a feisty clash in Merseyside, but I feel that Manchester City will be too strong for a Liverpool team still trying to gel together under Brendan Rodgers tactics. My free pick is Manchester City to defeat Liverpool.

Recommended Football Picks:

Back Chelsea -1 @ [1.81]
Back Aston Villa/Everton under 2 goals @ [2.2]
Back Tottenham Hotspur/West Brom under 3 goals @ [1.76]
Back Manchester City @ [2.4]

Written By: Professional Bettor and BetFair correspondent, James Feldman.

Last Wednesday, moments after Felix Hernandez tossed the 23rd perfect game in MLB history against the Tampa Bay Rays, we looked at how pitchers fared in their next trip to the bump.


The history dates so far back, that I wasn’t able to obtain box scores pre-1922. For the sake of this article, my perfect game followups begin with Charlie Robertson of the White Sox, who threw his perfect game on April 30, 1922. On May 5th, he toed the rubber while facing the Indians’ — just like King Felix will do this evening at Safeco Field — and he just didn’t have the same gusto. In six innings, Anderson gave up four runs on nine hits, while taking the 6-3 loss to Cleveland.

Fast forward nine decades, Philip Humber and Matt Cain achieved perfection 54-days apart earlier this year. Philip Humber turned in a stinker for his followup performance, giving up nine runs on eight hits in five innings of work against the Red Sox. Matt Cain on the other hand, was able to get his Giants’ to the winners circle against the Angels despite not having his best stuff (5 IP, 6H, 3ER).

From a sports betting perspective, pitchers have not brought their “A” game after perfection. All told, the eighteen pitchers with followup games on record have averaged 6.2 innings pitched with a 5.35 ERA, while sporting a 6-8 record with four no decisions.

Currently, the Mariners’ and Felix Hernandez are -210 favorites on the majority of sports betting sites over the Cleveland Indians tonight ($100 bet wins $47.62).

Here are the pitchers stat lines for the following start after their perfect game:

Charlie Robertson, White Sox, vs. Cleveland, May 5, 1922: 6 ip, 9 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 3 K (L). Final score: Indians 6, White Sox 3

Don Larsen, Yankees, vs. Boston, April 20, 1957: 1.1 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 0 K (ND)* Final score: Yankees 10, Red Sox 7.

Jim Bunning, Phillies, vs. St. Louis, June 26, 1964: 7 ip, 11 h, 4 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 5 K (ND). Final score: Phillies 6, Cardinals 5.

Sandy Koufax, Dodgers. vs. Cubs, Sept. 14, 1965: 6 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 3 K (L). Final score: Cubs 2, Dodgers 1.

Catfish Hunter, A’s, vs. Twins, May 14, 1968: 6 ip, 8 h, 8 r, 8 er, 5 bb, 4 K (W); Final score: A’s 13, Twins 8.

Len Barker, Indians, vs. Mariners, May 20, 1981: 9 ip, 8 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 10 K (L). Final score: Mariners 3, Indians 1.

Mike Witt, Angels, vs. Twins, Apirl 9, 1985: 7.2 ip, 10 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 3 K (L). Final score: Twins 6, Angels 2*.

Tom Browning, Reds, vs. Giants, Sept. 21, 1988: 8 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 K (W). Final score: Reds 5, Giants 1.

Dennis Martinez, Expos, vs. Phillies, Aug. 12, 1991: 7 ip, 6 h, 4 r, 4 er, 2 bb, 4 K (ND). Final score: Phillies 6, Expos 5.

Kenny Rogers, Rangers, vs. White Sox, Aug. 2, 1994: 5.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 2 K (L). Final score: White Sox 6, Rangers 2.

David Wells, Yankees, vs. Red Sox, May 23, 1998: 7 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 5 K (W). Final score: Yankees 12, Red Sox 3.

David Cone, Yankees, vs. Indians, July 23, 1998: 4 ip, 6 h, 6 r, 2 er, 4 bb, 7 K (ND). Final score: Yankees 9, Indians 8.

Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, vs. Marlins, May 23, 2004: 7 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 5 K (W). Final score: Diamondbacks 4, Marlins 3.

Mark Buehrle, White Sox, vs. Twins, July 28, 2009: 6.1 ip, 5 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 bb, 5 K (L). Final score: Twins 5, White Sox 3.

Dallas Braden, A’s, vs. Angels, May 14, 2010: 8 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 5 K (L). Final score: Angels 4, A’s 0.

Roy Halladay, Phillies, vs. Padres, June 4, 2010: 7 ip, 10 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 7 K (W). Final score: Phillies 3, Padres 2.

Philip Humber, White Sox, vs. Red Sox, April 26, 2012: 5 ip, 8 h, 9 r, 9 er, 3 bb, 5 K (L). Final score: Red Sox 10, White Sox 3.

Matt Cain, Giants, vs. Angels, June 18, 2012: 5 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 4 bb, 4 K (W). Final score: Giants 5, Angels 3.

Felix Hernandez, TBD…

Follow On Twitter: @PayneInsider



While professional bettors used All-Star break to recharge the batteries and shift focus to the football season rapidly approaching, the rest of the free world went about their week as usual – and maybe even tuned into that eight-zip snoozer produced by Bud Selig’s gang. Reality is, we’re all just biding time until the dog days of summer conclude so we can ditch the lumber and pick up the pigskin.


But college football is 48 days away still, and the NFL season doesn’t kick off for 54 more days.

Cash has always made my heart grow fonder, so why not continue to extract profits from the diamond to fulfill our burning desire within for football?

Here’s a look, a very long look, at what unfolded in the first-half, and a few tidbits that will help you turn a profit in the back-half of the MLB season.

5 MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS: (Based on $100 money line wager per game)
1. Pittsburgh Pirates (48-37) +$1,900
2. Baltimore Orioles (45-40) +$1,240
3. Washington Nationals (49-34) +$1,070
4. New York Mets (46-40) +$1,000
5. New York Yankees (52-33) +$900

If you found yourself backing the five ball clubs listed above you’ve likely enjoyed a profitable first half of baseball. Now, on to the teams that haven’t left you feeling quite as cozy inside. In fact, if you bet hard earned greenbacks on the first team listed below you’re likely feeling financial swoons worse than our European friends.

5 MOST UNPROFITABLE TEAMS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (37-50) -$2,460
2. Colorado Rockies (33-52) -$1,560
3. Milwaukee Brewers (40-45) -$1,300
4. San Diego Padres (34-53) -$1,200
5. Houston Astros (33-53) -$1,150

Unquestionably, information is the most powerful tool in sports betting, but baseball is a sport you can beat with top notch statistical driven data when applied correctly. Exhibit A: The Houston Astros. One of leagues least profitable teams overall, but when put in the right statistical situation (the comfy confines of Minute Made Park) can earn profits with the best of them.

5 MOST PROFITABLE HOME TEAMS:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates (29-14) +$1,500
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (27-16) +$800
3. San Francisco Giants (26-16) +$740
4. Houston Astros (24-21) +700
5A. New York Mets (26-20) +490
5B. Oakland Athletics (24-20) +490

5 MOST UNPROFITABLE HOME TEAMS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (17-27) -$2,110
2. Seattle Mariners (16-25) -$1,070
3. Kansas City Royals (14-23) -$1,000
4A. Colorado Rockies (18-25) -$980
4B. Boston Red Sox (22-24) -$980
5. San Diego Padres (17-27) -$890

Every year different situations present themselves – the easiest to identify being “splits.” While most enjoy sleeping in their own bed at night, there are teams anxious to leave town and remove themselves from distraction. The Kansas City Royals fit that mold and play exponentially better ball on the highway. Discovering the reason why is pertinent. Being able to then identify if that reason has enough legs to apply, and yield a return on investment is what separates professional from recreational bettors.

5 MOST PROFITABLE AWAY TEAMS:
1. Atlanta Braves (26-17) +$1,260
2. Chicago White Sox (23-17) +$1,110
3. Baltimore Orioles (23-20) +$1,060
4. New York Yankees (27-17) +$930
5. Kansas City Royals (23-24) +$840

5 MOST UNPROFITABLE AWAY TEAMS:
1. Houston Astros (9-32) -$1,850
2. Chicago Cubs (14-32) -$1,100
3. Milwaukee Brewers (18-24) -$820
4. Colorado Rockies (15-27) -$580
5. Toronto Blue Jays (20-24) -$360

Constantly, I hear recreational bettors say; “No way, I can’t back a team like…” I get it, I really do. But you’re missing maximum profit capability when automatically weeding teams out before digging deep – and frequently, when finding something on a poor team the value is tenfold due to horrific public perception. The Houston Astros are the consummate example, winning just 22% of road games and burning money faster than Antoine Walker. Thus far, Houston’s season has been summed up by one facet: Starting Pitching. Despite Bill James’ theory of every day players being exponentially more valuable to their team than starting pitchers, the Astros would undoubtedly be first in line to dispute that theory. Houston’s team ERA on the highway is 2.19 higher than at Minute Made Park (3.47). Don’t discriminate, bad teams can earn you money, too!

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Next, I’ll dive into the comfiest confines for hurlers, as well as those parks requiring a pitcher to bring their “A” game. When breaking these down it’s imperative to factor in all controllable elements. Constantly, I hear folks complain about New Yankee Stadium being the size of my backyard. Reality is, this park shouldn’t discourage you from playing unders when things align. It’s currently ranked in the bottom half of MLB with the team playing a majority of its games there ranked 5th in offensive production. In fact, 26 of 41 games at New Yankee Stadium went under the posted total in the first half. Ask yourself, if the Padres played at Yankee stadium and brought the leagues worst offense with them would your perception of the park change? Or vice versa, if the Yankees played home games at Petco Park would it even be on the cusp for Top 5 pitcher friendly parks? This is a thinking mans game, if you aren’t asking yourself these types of questions when deciphering information you have no chance at being a profitable bettor. Certain parks play better at particular times of the day, and with uncontrollable elements. Overs during a hot day at Great American Ball Park, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington at night, overs at Wrigley Field field when the wind is blowing out – and yes, unders at Wrigley Field when the wind is blowing in. How can the same exact park be advantageous to completely opposite elements? SITUATIONS! It’s great to have the advantage of a particular park in your back pocket, but that’s factored into the number, whereas bookmakers have a tougher time accounting for uncontrollable factors.

TOP 5 PITCHER FRIENDLY PARKS: (Based on 2012 First Half Data)
1. AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)
2. Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)
3. Citi Field (New York, NY)
4. Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California)
5. Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)

TOP 5 HITTER FRIENDLY PARKS:
1. Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)
2. Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)
3. Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
4. Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)
5. U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)

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Continuing forward we’ll address starting pitching – guys you should look to avoid, or even fade in the right situation. These pitchers simply can not continue their current form and regression is imminent. There’s also pitchers on the other side of the fence, who we think are on the cusp of turning things around based on prior history, and how unlucky they’ve been. Using a Sabermetric way of thinking is really helpful in identifying pitching form. Using things like BABIP (batting average on balls in play), FIP (fielding independent pitching), and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) really gives a better idea of how lucky, or unlucky a pitcher is. Gauging pitchers by ERA (earned run average) is really an archaic handicapping tool.

5 PITCHERS FACING REGRESSION:
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Ryan Vogelson
3. Chris Capuano
4. Matt Harrison
5. Jeremy Hellickson

5 PITCHERS TO PROGRESS:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. Cliff Lee
3. Josh Johnson
4. Jason Vargas
5. Jon Lester

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Additionally, breaking down second-half schedules is imperative to better gauge how things will play out once the dust settles. Sure, the New York Mets have been a fantastic story thus far, but based on their second-half schedule it’s likely wiser to look towards Atlanta in the NL East to give Washington a run for their money. I also didn’t want to include teams like the Oakland Athletics on this list because simply put; they have no shot! Sorry, Billy. If having the third toughest schedule down the stretch wasn’t tough enough, Oakland’s staring at the poop shoot of two of the best teams in MLB. This list includes teams in contention with the toughest, and easiest paths to a division crown.

5 TOUGHEST SECOND-HALF SCHEDULES:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. New York Mets
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. St. Louis Cardinals

5 EASIEST SECOND-HALF SCHEDULES:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox

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Moving ahead, lets take a glimpse at what the future holds in terms of division winners, as well as final MLB win projections for all 30 teams. These projections are formulated from my true numbers in conjunction with two of the larger syndicate groups in the country we share information with on a daily basis. The advantage being, we cover nearly the entire country with me located in the south, and the two groups split amongst the coasts.

2012 MLB DIVISION WINNER PROJECTIONS:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL EAST: New York Yankees
AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox
AL WEST: Texas Rangers

NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL EAST: Washington Nationals
NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals
NL WEST: San Francisco Giants

2012 MLB FINAL WIN PROJECTIONS:
1. Rangers W: 95 – L: 67
2. Yankees W: 93.5 – L: 68.5
3. Nationals W: 93 – L: 69
4. Angels W: 92.5 – L: 69.5
5. Giants W: 90 – L: 72
6. Cardinals W: 89.5 – L: 72.5
7. White Sox W: 88 – L: 74
8. Pirates W: 87 – L: 75
9. Reds W: 86.5 – L: 75.5
10. Red Sox W 86: – L: 76
11. Tigers W: 84.5 – L: 77.5
12. Rays 84 W:84 – L: 78
13. Dodgers W: 84 – L: 78
14. Orioles 83.5 W:84 – L: 77.5
15. Diamondbacks W: 83 – L: 79
16. Braves W: 82.5 – L: 79.5
17. Mets W: 81.5 – L: 80.5
18. Indians W: 80.5 – L: 81.5
19. Brewers W: 80 – L 82
20. Blue Jays W: 80 – L: 82
21. Phillies W: 79 – L: 83
22. Athletics W: 78.5 – L: 83.5
23. Marlins W: 77 – L: 85
24. Royals W: 70.5 – L: 91.5
25. Twins W: 69.5 – L: 92.5
26. Cubs W: 68.5 – L: 93.5
27. Mariners W: 68 – L: 94
28. Rockies W: 67.5 – L: 94.5
29. Astros W: 66 – L: 96
30. Padres W: 65 – L: 97

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Finally, lets dig into some future bets that show great value-potential not only from a cashing perspective, but futures that appear to present easy hedge opportunities down the road guaranteeing earning capability.

TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES:
San Francisco Giants 14/1 ($100 bet wins $1,400)
L.A. Angels 12/1 ($100 bet wins $1,200)

TO WIN THE DIVISION:
NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals 2.5/1 ($100 bet wins $250)
NL CENTRAL: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.5/1 ($100 bet wins $350)
NL WEST: San Francisco Giants 1/1 ($100 bet wins $100)

This concludes our MLB Second-Half Betting preview. I hope you were able to stay awake reading its entirety. Admittedly, it was touch and go a few times for me while writing.

*** Check our discounted Second-Half MLB Package that gets you every selection through the World Series! ***

Rather than listen to Chris Berman for the next few hours repeatedly yell things like; “back, back, back, back, gone!” “Way gone!” And, “He gone!” I think we should take this time to rehash the best of: Chris Berman.

Chris Berman Ranting:



Chris Berman How To Video On Smuggling Drugs:



Chris Berman Flirting: