Archives May 2013

Struggling NBA franchises will have their fate decided by ping pong balls at 8:30 p.m. ET this evening from the Millennium Hotel in Times Square. Teams will learn where they’ll be picking in the 2013 NBA Draft moments before solid franchises tip for game 2 of the Western Conference finals.

The NBA Lottery hasn’t been won by the team with the worst record (most ping pong balls/best chance) since 2004, when the Magic’ used the number one pick to select Dwight Howard. That same Orlando franchise has the best odds (25% chance) to earn the top pick in this years NBA Draft.

Mathematical odds of the 14-non-playoff teams to win the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery:

Scandal at The Mothership! ESPN aired yesterday’s edition of First Take, and boy, was there some controversy. No, Skip and Stephen weren’t arguing about worldly matters like Tim Tebow performing circumcisions in his spare time.

Like most Americans, I was watching but not really paying attention, and then . . . what sounded like, no, it couldn’t be. YES! The fart heard ’round the world!

At the :20 second mark, one of three suspects; Stephen A. Smith, Cari Champion or Skip Bayless decided to play the anal acoustics. Pass gas. Let one rip. Cut the cheese. Bottom burp. Airbrush their undershorts.

Where Fart Gate takes place is when the segment re-aired later in the day, there was no combustion of epic proportion. Where there was once a fart, there is no more fart. Thus in lies, First Take FART GATE!

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The NFL Draft combined with regime changes allow for prognosticators and pundits alike to get a true sense of how the league is reshaping. There’s still much to do with free agents roaming the market, rookie camp, OTA’s etc., but it isn’t too early to get an idea of how oddsmakers and the gambling community view squads right now.

Using Atlantis Casino 2013 Win Totals this is a group of teams that has the potential to make you money simply based on their current perception relative to win projection.


Jacksonville Jaguars Projected Win Total: Over 4.5 (-140)

The Jaguars’ were abysmal in 2012, ranking near the cellar in virtually every statistical category. Jacksonville will come into the 2013 season with low expectations, but there’s a lot to consider regarding their off-season – many positives.

For starters, the Jaguars have new ownership, which should typically be viewed as a positive development. Gus Bradley was brought in to coach this group, an exciting change considering his past work in reviving the Seattle Seahawks defensive unit in recent years.

Bradley is a fierce competitor, and he made a clear cut effort to find individuals in this year’s draft who seem to share such traits with him. Even current roster members have commented how different (for the better) things have been.

Luke Joekel might be the best player in this class; he fortifies an offensive line that struggled a season ago. Jonathan Cyprien is more than just a safety from a small school; he’s a well built and instinctive player who flies to the ball. The Jaguars’ decision to grab him in the early second reminded me of the Detroit Lions taking Louis Delmas in a similar spot back in 2010.

Jacksonville didn’t stop there; they picked up a pair of speedy playmakers in Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson, both of whom should provide depth at wide-out behind Justin Blackmon. Joshua Evans is also a safety who could see action in some capacity for this secondary.

This roster should be deeper under Gus Bradley, and considering where he is coming from, I’d expect a more run-heavy scheme on offense. Maurice Jones Drew played just six games a season ago; getting back 47.7% of their total offensive production is a great start.

This will be a make-or-break year for Blaine Gabbert, but many suggest he simply needs more time in the pocket. Gabbert ranked in the top third of NFL quarterbacks when given 2.6 seconds or more to throw. Over 58% of Gabbert’s throws came at or under 2.5 seconds to throw. Eugene Monroe is one of the leagues best, the aforementioned addition of Joekel, and second-year man Mike Brewster who was thrown into the fire as an undrafted rookie should help give Blaine time so the front office can assess what they have under center.

When breaking down the schedule landscape you have to consider their division. It’s fair to think the Colts’ with their -30 point differential in 2012-2013 will regress, and there’s very limited expectations regarding Tennessee. This Jaguars team hung tough with Houston in their second matchup last year, it’s not crazy to think they could grab three divisional games.

The non-divisional games include the Chiefs’, Cardinals and Bills at home, with road dates against the likes of Oakland and Cleveland. Getting to six or even seven wins wouldn’t be shocking. If you believe Jacksonville can alter its identity successfully in season one of the Bradley era, they’re worth a look. When you factor in that blindly betting overs with teams aligned at 6 wins or less has produced a 34-16-1 (.680) record since 2002, it makes betting the Jaguars’ OVER 4.5 wins all the more appealing.

San Diego Chargers Projected Win Total: Over 7 (+100)

Speaking of coaching/G.M. changes, the Bolts’ underwent a much needed transformation this off-season, and it can only elevate their chances of success when you rid yourself of a guy like Norv Turner.

San Diego’s offense was horrific last season. Their ground game and offensive line play lacked any explosiveness and Philip Rivers simply didn’t have weapons around him to gain consistent yardage. Antonio Gates is a step slower, yet still productive. The unveiling of Danario Alexander at midseason was helpful, yet short lived. Keenan Allen is a supreme talent who saw character questions and injury concerns slot him two-rounds later than he should’ve been selected. D.J. Fluker is a monster of a tackle and he should be able to provide Rivers tremendous support immediately having been under the tutelage of Nick Saban for four years.

Defense was strong last season for San Diego, but losing Takeo Spikes is a blow. Manti T’eo is a first round talent who landed in the second round. He presents good value and should start immediately.

However, the Chargers are tough to handicap because their schedule could be daunting as they draw the AFC South and NFC East. Still, they are being projected as likely landing around 6.5 or 7 wins. They should be the second best team in their division (the Chiefs’ will push them), that alone could be good enough for 7 or 8 wins, and because of that I think an even 7 presents value. The Chargers’ haven’t won less than 7 games since 2003, and I don’t see this season being any different.

Pittsburgh Steelers Projected Wins Total: Under 10 (+100)

The Steelers’ enter 2013 as a curious case. On one hand, their recent struggles and lack of efficiency at the end of games in 2012 make you think they’ll surely turn it around given the consistency of the franchise. Add in the fact that they had what is being seen as a great draft and they should be back, right?

The good news is their schedule opens as follows: vs. TEN, @CIN, vs. CHI, @MIN, BYE, @NYJ. However, Pittsburgh has road dates later in the year with New England, Baltimore, Green Bay, and they travel to Oakland, a place where they’ve struggled recently.

This team has a myriad of concerns, with age being at the forefront. Their front seven should likely hold up fine, especially with the addition of Jarvis Jones to play outside in the 3-4, but their inability to address secondary needs is catching up with them in a league that is becoming more pass-heavy by the minute.

Offensively, their tackle situation is a concern. Marcus Gilbert leaves a lot to be desired and while Mike Adams is gifted in the run game, he struggle mightily against above average pass rushers when forced to play on the left side.

This team may very well eclipse the 10-win mark, but the metrics used cap their total at 9. We’ve grown accustomed to this franchise always being in the mix, and an improved run game behind the addition of LeVeon Bell combined with a more balanced attack overall could certainly help that cause. However, I see too many issues with their secondary, offensive line and an over-dependency on Ben Roethlisberger to carry Steeler Nation. Pittsburgh might have a bounce-back season, but all signs point to this number being inflated due to decades of pristine perception.

Written By: @ToddFuhrman

We’ve all been there before: stuck racking our brain with how to structure monies on a Saturday when 15 plays across 4 sports appear too good to pass up. Let me quiet a myth right now: there’s no fixed number of games to play but a bettor should always be cognizant of how much liability is being extended at any given time. I know this seems somewhat counter-intuitive for those just learning the ropes; however, like every other lesson in sports gambling, it will make sense in time as your experience grows and leads us to the discussion of units: the case for and against flat betting.


Bettors talk about unit count all the time to keep tabs on their results. It’s an effective way to share with friends and members of the gambling community relative strength of each play without disclosing how much makes up an actual bet. Units should rarely be weighted the same across all sports since every bettor has his or her strengths and needs to strike from an advantaged position. The reality of sports betting is the better you become, the harder it is to get down large amounts anywhere, let alone in the smaller niche markets (WNBA, AFL, Golf, NASCARR). However, I digress a bit from my main thesis of trying to make a case for and against the merits of flat betting no matter the sport, no matter the streak, and no matter the strength of the play.

You know what it feels like; staring at a game all week you knew was worth way more than just a single play but you didn’t pull the trigger because of “sound money management principles.” Talk to the elite gamblers in the world and they’ll be the first to tell you recognizing the edge, knowing when to take shots, separates the best from the rest. There’s a reason Billy Walters wagers $25,000 one game and $3,000,000 the next. INCREASED EDGE! Over the course of a calendar year, a handful of situations present themselves and no bettor should be shackled by the normal tenants of traditional money management. Assessing your positions should be going on throughout the year, always seeking an opportunity to make larger bets when the confluence of handicapping angles all align themselves.

Math says the sheer volume of plays it requires to flat bet games doesn’t make the strategy financially viable over the long term unless you have a hefty bankroll. Hypothetically, let’s figure you make 2,000 bets a year for a dime ($1,000) per bet. Knowing the gold standard for handicapping is 60%, we’ll figure for argument’s sake our bettor hits 58% of wagers which places them in the 99.9 percentile. Rather than account for money lines, exotics, futures, etc. we’ll assume standard 11/10 juice for each wager made.

2,000 wagers x 1,100 per wager = 2,200,000 total annual risk.

Winning 58% of your bets leaves you with a record of 1160 – 840 which won’t account for a handful of pushes and other assorted outcomes.
With these numbers, your potential annual net income is (1160*1000) – (840*1100) = 320,000. Not a bad little living if you can swing it.

Now if your win percentage drops to 54%, the math looks very different: (1080*1000) – (920*1100) = 160,000.

If you’ve stayed with me this long you obviously can extrapolate results and figure out exactly what the net looks like for a $100, $250, $500 bettor. Without over simplifying, a drop of 1% in your annual win percentage creates a net change of roughly 40,000!

Why is this important? The reality is if you can identify winning spots 54% of the time at minimum (52.4% is the break even point), you should be able to effectively locate opportunities that call for 2x, 3x, and maybe even 5x your normal wager. Traditionally, I believe the more junior you are in betting sports, flat betting makes the most fiscal sense. It allows you to avoid huge volatile swings from differentiated units and can protect you from going on tilt or over extending yourself at the wrong time. Additionally, most recreational bettors have a difficult time identifying their edge. Part of the strategy behind flat betting is that it doesn’t place added emphasis on must win games over others; you just determine if a situation warrants a wager and your amount to bet is standardized.

From my experience, figuring out the sports where you have an edge is the turning point in a gambler’s evolution. Keeping accurate records for actual dollars won/lost (you can’t take units to the bank) and itemized accounting means you’re ready to take sports gambling more seriously. It’s not for everyone and I’ll never say it is, so for those who want to be taken seriously by their peers or want to be honest with themselves, your bank roll serves as the only scoreboard you’ll ever need.

When it comes to betting sports for keeps, the best bettors in the world know when it’s time to take shots. For those looking to stay in the game a long time and approach more casually, flat betting can be your friend. Setting realistic goals and knowing your objectives will always help you make the best financial decisions in any market.

Written By: Richard Salvatori

The 2012-2013 season has been in the books for over a month now, and we are finally beginning to see the future take shape around the country. Personnel changes in the form of transfers and recruiting will play a big role as always, and it’s never too early to start considering who will benefit most.


1. Illinois Fighting Illini

John Groce moved from Ohio to Illinois to take over the Fighting Illini, and he did a solid job year one. Second round exit in the NCAA tournament at the hands of Miami has to be viewed as at least a mildly successful season for a first year coach, but losing three key seniors will sting for Illinois moving forward.

In early May, Darius Paul, the younger brother of Brandon, announced his intentions to transfer to Champaign and follow in big bro’s footsteps. Paul was the MAC Freshman of the year last season at Western Michigan, and he brings size and athleticism on the interior with him.
Paul joins Illinois State forward John Ekey and Seton Hall guard Aaron Crosby as the latest installments in the future of Illinois basketball. Ekey will be available immediately as he is pursuing a graduate degree not offered at Illinois State. He made 18 starts for the Redbirds a season ago and provides size.

Crosby leaves Seton Hall after an abysmal season in which he served as one of the lone bright spots for the Pirates. He’s an aggressive and quick guard who can hit from the outside but most importantly, provides ball-handling and leadership for a group that lost a ton at the guard position in the wake of graduation.
Crosby will have to sit out next year according to NCAA guidelines, but he will be eligible to practice with a team that will feature 5 incoming freshman within a class that is ranked number 17th nationally by ESPN. The Illini also boast two additional transfers from a season ago who will be eligible to play this year.

While Illinois will still certainly be young in 2013-2014, the plethora of talent heading to Champaign is apparent. Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State have to be considered conference heavyweights at this point, but the conference as a whole should be down next season, which could allow for the Illini to make another run come March.

2. California Golden Bears

The Golden Bears made tremendous strides in 2013, and they gave Syracuse a massive scare despite shooing 19% from three in the NCAA tournament before being bounced.

Mike Montgomery is a known commodity and proven winner. His roster will experience some turnover given the loss of Allen Crabbe and Robert Thurman, two of the Bears’ most reliable pieces, but with Justin Cobbs back, he’ll be set at the most important lineup slot: point guard.
The expected growth of rising senior Richard Solomon and the defensive attributes of junior-to-be David Kravish, and the Bears are very unlikely to fall flat on their face come November.

Jabari Bird is an Oakland native who, at 6’6, can play both shooting guard and small forward. He possesses good range and explosiveness, and he could make Cal fans forget about Crabbe sooner than later.

Kameron Rooks is still a raw prospect hailing from the southern part of the state, at a seven-footer with a wealth of upside. He won’t have to play right away and can add depth to Montgomery’s front court rotation.

Ricky Kreklow never quite fit in the way one would hope in year one following his transfer from Missouri, but he played well in the NCAA tournament and should see a major increase in minutes this year as the only other experienced point guard on the roster.
Arizona should still be the dominant group in the Pac-12 and many will assume Cal falls off in the wake of their departures, but I’d keep an eye on Cal.

3. Tennessee Volunteers

Yes, the Kentucky Wildcats have reloaded and look to be nothing short of dominant next year bringing in a recruiting class for the ages. Additionally, the Gators’, while losing a few bodies, will be even stronger inside for 2013-2014.
That said; Tennessee is a team that could make major headway in the SEC next year after a disappointing finish last season. Their key issues coming into the off-season center around the depth of a roster that had been more or less decimated following program violations after Bruce Pearl’s departure.

Incoming shooting guard Robert Hubbs is the fourth ranked prospect at that position according to ESPN, and A.J. Davis of Norcross, GA is a 6’6 small forward with good versatility. The two together were expected to add that missing depth.

There’s been some messy news out of Knoxville that Trae Golden, the Volunteer’s steady hand at the point for the last few years, will be transferring out. Head Coach Cuonzo Martin states it was due to academic reasons (including plagiarism), but many believe Golden was forced out of Tennessee by Martin due to the lack of available scholarships. Regardless of reason, it’s a huge loss as Golden registered 30 minutes or more in the Vols’ final nine games of the 2012-2013 season. He had more turnovers than assists in only 6 games all year, a telling stat considering the fact he played the position so extensively. This loss could be crippling for a program hoping to take a big step forward in what will be Cuonzo Martin’s third year at Tennessee.

4. Oregon Ducks

Yes, Tony Woods Arsalan Kazemi, E.J. Singler and Carlos Emory are all gone, and it’s unlikely they will be replaced quickly, but Dana Altman will catch a break by grabbing Mike Moser from UNLV in a rather unexpected turn of events.

Moser will graduate now and become eligible immediately. Moser is an incredibly talented player who battled injuries and lack of production while sitting behind stud freshman Anthony Bennett a year ago. Moving up to the northwest and getting the chance to play with Dominic Artis in a conference that generally lacks great defense should be helpful for him.

Oregon has their share of question marks, but they have seven commits coming in for the 2013-2014 season, including; Jordan Bell of Long Beach and A.J. Lapray, both of whom will help along the frontline.

They also get two brothers from San Diego in Tyree and Terrell Robinson, adding further depth to an already stacked backcourt. The Ducks’ will be somewhat thin across the frontline, but Moser can make up for that, and when you think about this conference, no one outside of ‘Zona has great depth in that area.

5. Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Gophers’ started its off-season by grabbing Richard Pitino in a move that was both bold and questioned. Tubby Smith’s removal was questionable and unfair, but I do think baby Pitino is going to be a good hire, and Richard should have little trouble recruiting — he’s well connected down south and in the northeast. Simply put, father Rick won’t let him fail and will undoubtedly send him transfers year in and year out.

Dre Mathieu is a talented and athletic JUCO guard comparable to Artis who can help them immediately. Andre and Austin Hollins return to Minny as well, and the addition of a talent like former UCLA signee Allerik Freeman would be another coup. The Gophers’ lose quite a bit in their frontcourt with the graduation of both, Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe.

Coach will use the speed and athleticism he possesses at the guard position to play up tempo and in your face, a Pitino staple. Increased offensive efficiency with his group will help and Minnesota will have a chance to be good quite soon.
Too often a season ago we saw a hesitant group that was almost afraid to advance beyond the restraints of their half-court offense. They looked uncomfortable and lacked confidence at times, relying far too much on offensive rebounding to generate scoring. That will change under Pitino given his past body of work, and given the question marks surrounding some former Big Ten powers; this Minnesota team could make moves once again.