Archives August 2013

Written By: PayneInsider
Assist From: JustinZovas
Hockey Assist From: So_Money_Sports

The NFL preseason is in full swing. Anticipation for Thursday, September 5th is palpable. But with that comes a bevy of talking-heads and typically, those talking-heads spew drivel. Being able to decipher information, from information WITH VALUE can be a daunting task this time of year. An endless amount of sports betting trends will invade your Twitter timeline. Airwaves will be polluted Friday’s with handicappers revealing “information” like: the Giants’ are 7-1 ATS their last 8 Sunday night games when the temperature is below 71 degrees AND THERE’S A FULL MOON! For whatever reason, and it’s extremely sickening, that kind of information ‘moves the dial’. Reality is; that tidbit is worth less than the pocket lint you just found in your favorite pair of cargo shorts.


Finding trends that are real, trends you can touch, trends you can feel are the kind of trends that have predictive value. One situation I discuss every NFL preseason has the aforementioned elements: Teams that played in the Hall of Fame game are 34-16-3 (68%) ATS their 2nd preseason game versus a team making its preseason debut. The team with a preseason game under its belt has worked more kinks out, acclimated themselves to in-game situations, has a better idea of position battles, and most of all, teams tend to play starters longer in game two than game one.

That said; all betting trends should be used as a starting point, and not the sole reason for investing. Moreover, the preseason situation mentioned above will reach a point where there’s no longer value. Books will catch on, and not only adjust their numbers for that situation, but likely over-adjust to where value teeters to the opposing side. Situational bettors tend to be like bulls; head down, charging forward, and with little to no regard. They blow through dead end signs and fail to realize that at some point they’re investing in over-adjusted situations.

Each summer I attempt to uncover a few NFL trends for specific situations that hopefully encompass the aforementioned predictive value. Unfortunately, a situation I wholeheartedly felt data would support fell extremely short. The ATS trend for this specific situation in question is: Teams off of a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent. You can feel this trend, you can touch this trend, it’s real.

I expected to find a “letdown spot” bettors could fade for the team off a division win, on the road, and a “play on spot” bettors could invest in for the non-conference home team. After all, Team A faced a division rival in a hotly contested game. Practice was more intense than usual that week. Team A won a physical division game. Human nature takes place and Team A feels good about themselves, complacency sets in after a big win (fat and happy). Team A looks at the schedule for the following week and it’s on the road versus a non-conference opponent. Energy at practice for Team A isn’t anywhere close to the previous week when preparing to face their divisional rival – focus is immensely lacking.

Well…

Since 1989, teams off a division win, on the road, facing a non-conference opponent are 166-152-15 (52.2%). This was absolutely shocking. Obviously, 52.38% is your break even point at -110, so this isn’t profitable, but it was mind-blowing to see that much success in a perceived “let down situation”. I fully expected this to be a profitable “fade situation,” but in the last 23 seasons, it would have yielded a 47.8% win rate.

It’s great to classify certain situations and spots, but they must be backed up with cold, hard facts. I hear all too often about fading teams in this specific situation, and it simply doesn’t hold water. Like any trend, even if it yields a profitable betting situation, it should only be the starting point for deeper analysis.

Written By: Billy Attridge

With the NFL season about to kick off, many recreational gamblers are scurrying to gather as much information and data on all 32 teams as possible. Despite being late to the party, there is still an effective way to evaluate a team’s performance from the previous year using rudimentary mathematics. When analyzing a team’s expected win percentage or games won, the Pythagorean Theorem can be a hidden gem if utilized correctly. At the conclusion of every NFL season, this simple mathematical formula can propel a sports bettor in the right direction when determining a team’s actual performance compared to what was observed on television throughout the year.

Using a team’s Points For and Points Against; we can come up with an expected win total. (PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2)) gives us a sound number of wins expected per game. For example, the Atlanta Falcons scored 419 points and allowed 299 during the 2012-2013 season. Plugging the numbers into the above equation, we see Atlanta averaged 0.66259 wins every 1 game played. Multiplying that by 16 gives us an expected win total for the regular season. Atlanta, based on those stats, ought to have won approximately 10.6 games last year. We can make this number even stronger by analyzing a team’s Turnover Margin.

Joe Fortenbaugh, of the National Football Post, put together some excellent charts detailing NFL success both Straight Up and Against The Spread from 2002-2011 based on Turnover Differential. Adhering to the premise that 80 percent of turnovers are random, teams that have poor Turnover Margins generally improve, and vice versa. Using 3.2 as a value for a single turnover, multiplying it by a team’s Turnover Margin gives us the number of points generated by Turnovers. So, using Atlanta (+13 TO) as our example, we see they benefited from 41.6 “Turnover” points. Subtracting this from our ‘PF’, our new equation shows that Atlanta should have won approximately 9.83 games in 2012 – that’s low compared to the 13 regular season wins obtained. One other team that has caught the interest of sports bettors in the past month has been the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ suffered from an abysmal -24 Turnover Differential (only recovered 33% of Fumbles!), and based on our formula, played like a five win football club (5.03). They won 2 games, and in only one contest last year did they have a positive Turnover Margin.

How can this information help us in the future? While sharps have sucked virtually all the value out of Season Win Totals at this point, the NFL provides a unique opportunity due to the influx of public money in the marketplace. While Kansas City has the attention of wiseguys and the public, there may be opportunities to fade Atlanta early in the season. After all, the Falcons’ had six games with a Turnover Margin of +3 or greater, the most in the NFL. They recovered over 64% of Fumbles last year, second highest in the league. With the NFC South looking extremely competitive this year, a regression for Atlanta would not be shocking.

It must be noted that the above formulas are a great starting point for handicapping, but it’s just a small piece of the puzzle. Sports bettors must be cognizant of injuries, coaching change, style adjustments and strength of schedule when focusing on win totals. Incorporating different types of analysis is vital to succeed in the sports betting industry.