Written By: Richard Salvatori
With the season kicking off in days we’ll address injuries, roster turnover, coaching changes, all while determining which teams present the best PLAY and FADE spots to bet during the infant stages of the 2013-2014 NFL season. Schedule analysis is pertinent to any such inquiry, and a sound understanding of perception as it relates to various teams will also prove handy. If you haven’t printed off a season schedule identifying spots for each team, each week, you’re behind. Take a deep breath, don’t sweat it, we have you covered for the first quarter of the season.
Week 1:
Opening weekend of football season is incredibly interesting for a few reasons: Media figureheads think they have teams figured out, but there’s always a team or three that shock early and disappoint even more as the season progresses. Last season, it was the Arizona Cardinals that got off to a scorching start winning their first four games including; wins over the Seahawks’ and Patriots. Arizona proceeded to lose nine in a row, and eleven of their final twelve.
Additionally, spreads provided by sports books can be inefficient early in the season, but oddsmakers are keeping numbers reasonably tight week one. Thursday’s season opener between Denver and Baltimore represented the largest number on the board (+/- 8) before news broke that Jeff Tuel could potentially start under center versus New England.
The Cardinals’ have become one of the most talked about teams this off-season given the changes made and how the Over/Under has significantly increased on their expected win total. Arizona’s win total opened 5, it currently resides at 5.5 with the OVER juiced at -160. Whether it’s Bruce Arians’ emotion that revitalizes Arizona’s franchise, or the fact that blindly betting teams OVER their posted win total when aligned at 6 or less would’ve resulted in bettors cashing 67% of the time since 2000 – and more impressively, 79% the last three season seem to be the reason for increased optimism.
The Rams’ were a team in 2012 that far exceeded bookmaker expectations beating the spread in five of their first six outings and proved that a capable defense and balanced offense with a new regime pays dividends. If you’re sharp, St. Louis’ early success a season ago shouldn’t have been shocking: teams coming off a season below 30% against the spread, are 55.2% against the spread the first six weeks of the following season – the Rams’ were just 3-12-1 ATS in 2011.
St. Louis’ makeover has focused on upgrading the offensive-line in addition to adding weapons at receiver. Despite being on the backend of his career, the loss of Steven Jackson could be tough to make up for. Arizona has questions on defense (replacing Adrian Wilson and dealing with the loss of Darryl Washington the first four games). Still, the line seemed inflated at +6. It’s since dropped to +5 where it currently resides at the LVH Super Book. Despite the injury to Jonathan Cooper, +5 still has value, but taking it certainly means your edge has decreased slightly.
Week Two:
Indianapolis gets the Dolphins’ at home in week two and as it stands now; the Colts’ are a short favorite. Miami will come off a week one dog-fight in Cleveland, while Indy has a layup against the dysfunctional organization that is the Oakland Raiders. It might not be smooth sailing for Andrew Luck in his second year given the Colts’ massive defensive issues, but this game is ideal for his Colts.
Indianapolis threw the ball all over Miami in week nine last season. Luck finished with 433 yards, and it launched the Dolphins’ into a tailspin losing four out of their next five, effectively, eliminating them from playoff contention. The Colts’ were 4th in the NFL a season ago in yards per possession, Miami checked in at 19. Luck and Co. dominated time of possession, and if Miami becomes more pass happy in 2013 like they’ve discussed, this game could result in a similar outcome. Where this game will be decided is in the red-zone, the Dolphins’ ranked #1 in the NFL allowing teams to score touchdowns just 42.59% of the time inside the 20. On the other side, the Colt’s were in the bottom third of the NFL converting for touchdowns when Luck and his offense crept into the red-zone.
No question Miami has upgraded their pass rush and secondary, but is it enough? Most prognosticators expect regression from Indy and progression from Miami this season, but Andrew Luck and his Colts have earned the right to be a full three point favorite at Lucas Oil Stadium against a team like Miami – strictly a value play here.
Week Three:
Cleveland has the makings of a team that could improve greatly with just average play under center in 2013. Yes, the AFC North poses challenges, but that doesn’t mean improvement isn’t realistic for the Browns’.
Their trip to Minnesota in week three seems to be inflated, specifically, after back-to-back road division games. I know it’s a home-opener for the Vikings’, but 6.5-point underdogs versus a team sharp bettors have been selling all off-season is extreme. Obviously, I would encourage buying onto the key number of +7.
Cleveland’s defense is interesting, specially, with the off-season upgrades. Barring anything extreme, Joe Haden will be around for all 16 games. How great is Haden’s impact? The Browns’ surrendered 414.8 yards per game without Haden in the lineup, just 341.5 when he was suited up. Just how significant is that differential? At 414.8 yards per game that would’ve ranked Cleveland 31st in the NFL in 2013, at 341.5 yards per game, they would’ve ranked 12th.
Brandon Weeden is responsible for the aforementioned needed improvement under center if Cleveland wants to take off. Minnesota could assist him, as they ranked 23rd against the pass in 2012. The advancement of Harrison Smith and the acquisition of Xavier Rhodes should improve this maligned secondary for the Vikings’, but it could take some time.
Regardless, anything exceeding six for this game feels high. Barring injuries the first two weeks, my TRUE NUMBER on this game is 4.25, having the ability to buy to the second largest key number of 7 would be a +EV investment in my mind.
Week Four:
The Dallas Cowboys open the season hosting their rival, New York Giants under the lights on Sunday Night football (currently a 3-point favorite) before traveling to Kansas City in week two and getting the Rams at home in week three.
How Dallas comes out of that three game stretch (favored in all three) is a mystery, but if the point spread is any indicator the trip to San Diego week four could be treated as a vacation before a home date with Peyton Manning’s Broncos and back-to-back division games versus the Redskins’ and Eagles.
The following serves to summarize Dallas’ recent trips to the west coast during the early months of the season:
9/16/2012: Seattle 27, Dallas 7
9/18/2011: Dallas 27, San Francisco 24
10/4/2009: Denver 17, Dallas 10
Not much to take away, but I’m higher than most on the Chargers’. I think they’ll be a team that reinvents themselves with Mike McCoy – starting strong has been stressed and will be important for a team that struggled early under the Norv Turner regime.
A year ago, Atlanta dominated the Chargers in San Diego during an early September visit. The Chargers entered that game 2-0 and were three point favorites. I’m higher on San Diego as I alluded to, and Dallas isn’t close to Atlanta in our power ratings. The look-ahead line is San Diego -1 for this week four contest, and at that price you have to strongly consider an investment.