Archives 2014

Written By: Billy Attridge

Reason 1: Options, Options, Options

Live Wagering provides bettors with a plethora of choices in the sports betting market. Buying off a side, locking in a middle, and getting down at a more advantageous number than offered at close are all opportunities that professional bettors look to capitalize on.

One game in particular provides an excellent example. During Week 12 of the NFL season, the Packers/Vikings game provided savvy in-game investors a chance to strike on an overreaction by sportsbooks. Minnesota opened as a 10-point home underdog to the visiting Green Bay Packers. Sharp gamblers gobbled up the double digits, and the Vikings closed +7.5/+8 at most books. Mid-way through the 2nd quarter, the Packers took a 14-7 lead after an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass. If you missed taking +10 pregame, a significant number in NFL betting, the in-game wagering line jumped to +10.5, offering a superior line than the best sports betting groups in the world got down on. Those who took the plunge on the Vikings not only grabbed an incredible line, but recognized profit as well (Green Bay won, 24-21).

Reason 2: Swings

This is especially prevalent in basketball, both NBA and College. We have all seen it before. Poor 3-point shooting teams rattle off 4 or 5 in a row, creating a massive swing in the line. Certain lineups seem to “click”, or speed up the tempo of the game when on the court. Recognizing coaching tendencies, game theory, and situations can guide one to dominating the live wagering market. The concept of buying low/selling high is highly effective for in-game bettors, and, if combined with correct game analysis, can be extremely profitable.

Reason 3: Limits

Many large sports bettors and syndicate groups do not bother with live wagering. Why? Simply put, the limits do not make it worthwhile. Most sportsbooks offer just a few hundred dollars, and if they do increase limits larger, the standard juice rises significantly. Even worse, it’s common practice to put live betting delays, and then re-adjust the line during the delay. Why is this relevant, or considered a positive? Most sports bettors do not have a limit problem. Books put limits on smaller market offerings such as props, college basketball totals, CFL, and the WNBA. It is much tougher to set lines for these subsets of wagers, and in-game betting fits right in. Play by play offerings in Pro Football cannot come close to the accuracy of a Sunday 12:30 pm NFL Line.

If limits are not a concern, live wagering can be a profitable endeavor for those with the discipline to tackle it. Money management principals need to be in full effect here (as they always should), as many options and games on the board can lead to a full slate of +EV (expected value) opportunities.

With the end of season playoffs in sight, all the teams still in contention to qualify will have one eye on the Super Bowl final, taking place on February 1st in Arizona. One team who will be chomping at the bit to get there is the Denver Broncos, especially after last season’s humiliation in the final to Seattle Seahawks. The strengthening of their squad over the summer can only benefit the Broncos chances, with the likes of DeMarcus Ware at defensive end, Aqib Talib at corner, and T.J.Ward coming in at safety. Denver has a great shot at lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy come the end of the season at betting odds of 5/1. But what other teams could be in the mix to be crowned champions?

Signing the league’s best cornerback in Darrelle Revis, as well as keeping hold of receiver Julian Edelman puts the New England Patriots in a strong position to challenge for this seasons Superbowl. The Patriots are red-hot and atop the AFC East with a record of 9-2, having won their last 7 by an average margin of 20 points per game, which has sports books slashing their odds down to 4/1. Other teams with a shot are NFC North leaders Green Bay Packers (5/1), San Francisco 49’ers (18/1), last season’s champions Seattle Seahawks (11/1) and the Arizona Cardinals (14/1). With a few league games remaining, all playoff positions are up for grabs, so why not try your hand on an American football themed slots games in the meantime.

This is easier than it has ever been, as you don’t even need a computer now if you want to play NFL slot $5 Million Touchdown – you can just access it from your phone using a mobile casino. It’s certainly worth it, not least because this particular game has an eye-popping $5 million maximum jackpot. It also has the Touchdown game, which simulates NFL action using state of the art video graphics that makes it a dream for any fan who is also frustrated player – one of the bonuses of this type of betting on sports. With these kinds of features offered it isn’t hard to figure out why sports fans are turning to sporting slot games as a fun and rewarding alternative form of betting on their favorite sport.

Written By: Billy Attridge

With NFL Week 11 wrapping up, what better way to review the season thus far than by checking in with the prestigious Westgate SuperContest. Through 55 games (5 picks per week), CH BALLERS leads the pack with 42 points, picking winners at a 76.36% clip. Using basic statistical principles that Justin Zovas highlighted for readers in his pre-competition piece on the SuperContest for Todd’s Take, we can further evaluate the positions of the leaders, and consider the probability of someone eclipsing the projected 57.5 wins this year.

Using the premise that each pick has a 50% chance of winning, we can calculate the likelihood of our results up to Week 11:

5 Picks per week = 55 made thus far

0.50 probability of winning pick = 27.5 is our average, with a standard deviation of 3.708

MATH SAYS…

68% should fall between 23.792 and 31.208 wins. Reality: 67.93%, or 953 entrants.

95% should fall between 20.084 and 34.916 wins. Reality: 92.23%, or 1,294 entrants.

99.7% should fall between 16.376 and 38.624 wins. Reality: 99.00%, or 1,389 entrants.

So what does this mean? While normally we would expect about 4 contestants to be outside of our 3rd Standard deviation, we have 14! (Only 3 of which reside north of 38 wins).

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MOVING FORWARD:

While 76%+ winners is quite the feat, it cannot be expected to continue. In fact, in order for CH BALLERS to reach the 60 win mark; 60% of their picks moving forward would need to be correct. Good thing 3/5 per week is easy! (Hoping this reeks of sarcasm).

6 weeks = 30 games x 0.6 = 18 +42 = 60 wins

Now let’s dig a little deeper. Using 36 wins as our cutoff point (Top 40 contestants), what is the likelihood that someone will top the projection of 57.5 wins from the beginning of the year?

Administering the same concepts/math from above (replacing 50 picks with 30), and using 36 wins as the low, pertaining to the current Top 40 participants:

68% will likely have between 48.26 and 53.74 wins.

95% will likely have between 45.52 and 56.48 wins.

99.7% will likely have between 42.78 and 59.22 wins.

Keep in mind, that is using 36 current wins as our base (27 entries are at 37 wins or higher).

Top 40 Projections (If participants current win percentages play out):



Top 40 Projections (If participants regress to break-even rate, 52.4%):

The Packers’ week off seemed to have seriously helped the hamstring injury that Aaron Rodgers suffered, since the very famous QB worked out on Monday, which is great news for many fans and their bookmaking solutions.

This proved to be the very first time that the player was able to participate on the field since October 26, when he suffered a pulled left hamstring in the Packer’s 44-23 defeat to the Saints.

“Aaron did everything today,” said coach Mike McCarthy. “He looked good. He went through the workout today.”

However, the workout session was not a complete practice, as the coach compared it to a workout during the offseason in which individual drills are done, as well as working on conditioning and strength.

The player stayed in the game with New Orleans despite the injury suffered in the third quarter, but he did not have a lot of mobility at all. Rodgers then pulled out of the game late during the fourth quarter, as it was too much to handle.

On Monday, Rodgers didn’t talk to reporters, but after his team’s game against the New Orleans he said that he didn’t believe that the injury was so serious, something that left many Packers fans very relieved.

The coach said that RG T.J. Lang, who concerned many fans when he suffered a sprained left ankle in the game against New Orleans, was rehabbing his injury on Monday. But the team’s three starters at defense – safety Morgan Burnett (calf), DE Datone Jones (ankle), and CB Sam Shields (knee) – all players who ended missing missed the game against the Saints – were able to practice throughout the team’s workout session on Monday.

Rodgers might return to action sooner than expected, and this is seen as great news for many fans looking for bookmaking solutions. It’s still not known if the player will be healthy enough to take on Bears, but there is no doubt amongst many fans that his return will give the Packers a huge boost for their upcoming NFL games.

Fans and experts alike are knocking on wood, hoping to see the player hit the field soon enough, but they’re fully aware that he should still be very careful when he makes his return, and should be sure that he made a complete recovery before playing again.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Sports bettors are constantly searching for relevant information that can aid them in their quest to profit in the evolving NFL sports market. Taking a step back to observe which teams have fattened pockets, and which have been costly, is an important strategy when investing in the NFL market. Always remember, no matter how good or poor a team might be, the point spread is the great equalizer. The Oakland Raiders might be 0-8, but they are 4-4 against the spread, while the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks are just 3-5 against the spread.


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Most Profitable ATS:
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
Arizona Cardinals: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Least Profitable ATS:
New York Jets: 1-7-1
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-6-1
Tennessee Titans: 2-5-1
Washington Redskins: 3-6

Most Profitable Over Teams:
Green Bay Packers: 7-1
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
New England Patriots: 7-2
Denver Broncos 6-2
New Orleans Saints: 6-2

Most Profitable Under Teams:
Buffalo Bills: 6-2
Detroit Lions: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Probably the most important seasonal trend pertaining to bettors and sports books alike, is the run of primetime overs leading up to this point. Hitting at a 22-6 clip (79%), the “Primetime Over” spot is usually reserved for recreational gamblers looking to play catch-up, or double up, at the end of a day. “Primetime Games” are considered Thursday Night 7-2 to the Over, Sunday Night 8-1 to the Over, and Monday Night 7-3 to the Over. Some professional bettors make a habit of attacking the opening total, betting over, with the knowledge that come game-time, middle opportunities and easy buy-offs will be available. It is very rare that any teams ATS, or Over/Under results, stay running at a clip like this for an entire season. Bookmakers have to adjust; therefore, often creating value on the opposite side(s). Many treat betting as a hobby, but don’t forget, it is a market, and any efficient market will have corrections.

A Team to Consider Backing in the Second Half:
New York Jets: I cringed as soon as I finished typing ‘Jets’. But let’s take a deeper look. Sitting at the bottom of the barrel in turnover margin (-13), it is no surprise that the Jets have posted the worst ATS record of any team so far. However, a change at QB to the veteran Vick may spark some fight in this locker room. Head Coach Rex Ryan is most likely dead in the water, but he is a player’s coach, and my feeling is that the team will respond with strong efforts in the second half of the season. This is a team that gets fantastic trench play on both sides of the ball; Top 5 in yards per carry (4.7), and Top 5 in yards allowed per carry (3.5). My only concern; Vick is a turnover-prone quarterback, and ball-security is a must to covering spreads. His size has always been an issue in the redzone, and some of the tread on his wheels have worn. This week, New York has dropped from +5.5 to +4 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers at BetOnline.

A Team to Consider Fading in the Second Half:
Houston Texans: J.J. Watt and the Texans sit at 4-5 (5-5 ATS), and seem to be in the hunt for the AFC South crown. The Texans are fortunate to be in the mix of things, considering Watt has accounted for 3 touchdowns, and they carry a +7 turnover margin heading into the second half of the year. To be frank, this team doesn’t have much on either side of the ball. Quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick will lose you more games than he will win, and outside of Watt, this defense has failed to slow down above average offenses. Houston faces a stiff test out of their bye week at the Browns (another team that was a strong candidate to land the fade spot). Obviously, as sports investors everything depends on the number. With the upcoming slate of games (Cleveland, Jacksonville 2x, Tennessee), there may be value betting against the Texans as favorites in certain spots.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Buffalo (4-3) at New York (1-6)

Current Line: Jets -3, 40

Analysis: This line opened Jets -2.5 (-120), and quickly jumped to NYJ -3, with professionals buying the Jets up to the most important number in the NFL. The total has been bet down off a key total number of 41, which seems to be a reasonable spot for the Bills and Jets; two teams whom excel on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 4th and 7th in opponents yards per play, and struggle offensively, ranking 25th and 31st, respectively. The Bills are coming off an emotional high, winning in the final seconds at home vs. the Vikings. Although they grabbed the victory, they lost the services of RB’s Jackson and Spiller. While the running back position is not of high value in today’s NFL, the loss of a leader like Jackson stings. Buffalo’s porous offensive line facing arguably the best front 4 football spells a long day for Kyle Orton and company. The Jets have added rest time, and despite the poor record, should be ready to go for this one.

Final Thoughts: For me, this betting line acknowledges the changes in the NFL Betting Market. We have a 4-3 Bills team who has beaten a public team (Chicago), a strong up and coming team (Miami), and a division leader (Detroit), catching 3 points from a 1-6 team whose QB and coach are routinely mocked in the mainstream media. If you can find a stray 2.5 (-120) or better, investing in the Jets looks to be the way to go.

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Baltimore (5-2) at Cincinnati (3-2-1)

Current Line: Bengals PK, 45.5

Analysis: The Ravens opened up +2.5, and have been bet down to +1/PK at some offshore sports books. This game is huge in terms of division and playoff implications, especially for the Bengals. Going 0-3-1 after their bye week could cripple this team, and will definitely make them an underdog to make the playoffs. While the Ravens seem to roll at home, the road struggles that follow Joe Flacco and this crew cannot be over-looked. That being said, the Ravens should be focused, looking for revenge after their Week 1 home loss on their minds.

Final Thoughts: While I have Baltimore power rated a bit higher than Cincinnati, this spot and number does not feel right. I think we’ll see a decent effort from the Bengals, with or without A.J. Green. The look-ahead line on this match-up was Cincinnati-3.5, and any value for the Ravens was lost after Week 7’s results. This line needs some monitoring, and if it continues it’s downward trend (70% of tickets on Baltimore), it may require taking a position on the home team.

Green Bay (5-2) at New Orleans (2-4)

Current Line: Saints -1, 56

Analysis: Two teams moving in two directions, it seems. Packers have won four straight, scoring almost 37 points per game in that stretch, with an average winning margin of almost 19 points per game. Rodgers has been a torch this season, throwing for 18 TD’s and only 1 INT through 7 games. The Saints, on the other hand, fell apart in Week 7, blowing a 24-10 lead with under four minutes to go. The key to this game is the time. Yes, oddsmakers and bettors alike have recognized the drastic home/road dichotomy the Saints have carried with them the past half-decade. However, Sunday night provides the first home prime-time spot for New Orleans this year. This appears to be a must win for the Saints, who, despite the poor play, are only 1 game back in the seemingly dreadful NFC South with two games remaining versus the Panthers.

Final Thoughts: Like the Manning-led Broncos, home team and over in prime-time spots just seems to click when it comes to New Orleans. At 56, I cannot justify market entry on the over at this time. The Saints normal home-field advantage may fall between 3.5-4.5, but in this prime-time spot vs. Rodgers and the Pack, I do not think it’s unreasonable to make this closer to its peak. Laying 1 or better with the Saints makes a ton of sense.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Betting the NFL is unlike betting any other sport. The amount of public money that saturates the market on a weekly basis allows professional bettors the opportunity to capitalize on line adjustments based purely on public action. For every investor claiming the NFL betting market is too tight, professional bettors understand it’s the market with the least efficient money in conjunction with the opportunity to invest larger sums than any other american sport market. The public has a tendency to overreact; teams are constantly being evaluated based on what they accomplished (or did not) the previous week, and bet accordingly.

It is widely known that 3 and 7 are the most important key numbers in NFL wagering; by adding the two aforementioned win margins together it works out that 3 and 7 point victories account for 19.2% of all NFL games. So entering the market at optimal times is crucial when games are aligned around these key numbers. As it pertains to Giants at Redskins on Thursday Night Football, New York backers should have grabbed +4.5 or better, while Washington supporters interested in laying the wood could have laid as low as -3.

Monitoring line moves around 3 and 7 can be very indicative of how professional bettors and the NFL betting market sees a game. In Week 1, we saw the Minnesota Vikings open as a 6-point underdog, only to be bet through the 3, and close 2.5 at a number of the sharpest sports books. At this point, the market is screaming that the number may not matter in this contest (it didn’t, as the Vikings steamrolled the Rams 34-6). Moving through the 3 is an extremely strong move, especially on game-day, when betting limits are at their very highest. A move from +3.5 to +2.5 (1 point move) carries more weight in terms of strength than a move from -10.5 to -13.5 (3 point move). It’s imperative to have a broad understanding of the NFL betting market, and how it works. Factoring in key numbers, the time of week betting limits increase and then reach their peak, as well as, betting percentages are a collection of tools all bettors should incorporate in their NFL handicapping.

Which games in Week 4 should you keep an eye on? The Vikings, Bills and Chiefs all opened at or above the largest key number in the NFL and are trending downwards or below the 3. Money has driven Minnesota from +3 (+100) to +2.5 (+102), the Bills from +4 (-110) to +3 (-110), and the Chiefs from +4.5 (-110) to as low as +3 (+110), as of Wednesday afternoon. As these games dance around the 3, it is imperative to watch for further market moves in that direction, or potential resistance. Using a Live Odds feed and monitoring NFL line movements at the sharpest offshore betting establishments is a beneficial weapon all bettors should add to their arsenal.

Written By: Billy Attridge

One way investors can monitor the sports betting market is by comparing futures odds over a specific set of time. One practice I perform each summer is compiling odds from sports books prior to the NFL preseason, and then note changes after the teams dress rehearsal’ game has concluded.

For most teams, that’s the 3rd game, but every year there are exceptions and this preseason was no different. For Carolina and Kansas City, it was week 2. Although, Jeff Fisher and his Rams took a far different approach this season, he typically uses his teams final preseason game as the dress rehearsal. This exercise provides an opportunity to peak at teams the sports betting marketplace has found value in. Using odds from BetOnline, here are some notable changes:

San Diego Chargers (33/1):
The Chargers were 48/1 prior to the preseason, and it’s easy to see why their odds have dropped. Quarterback Phillip Rivers has had a stellar start to the NFL year (15 for 18, 166 yards and 1 TD), and Coach Mike McCoy has resurrected this offense by utilizing talented players like Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The main concern for San Diego lies in the defense, where a questionable secondary, coupled with tackling concerns, could lead to disaster. A spot they couldn’t afford any injuries was up the middle, and with Kwame Geathers now on the IR, it could be tough to overcome that loss. Regardless, if they can produce an above .500 record in the division, and Rivers can continue his outstanding play behind center, the Chargers have a very good shot at reaching the playoffs this year. This isn’t a public move, some of the sharpest bettors I speak to have invested in San Diego futures.

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St. Louis Rams (85/1):
One of the few teams to see a drastic odds change in either direction this year; the Rams were 50/1 before July to grab the Lombardi Trophy. So what happened? Yes, Sam Bradford is out for the year with his second ACL tear. But does backup quarterback Shaun Hill require a 30-cent drop? Let’s dig deeper. Rookie left tackle Greg Robinson has struggled, and guard Rodger Saffold has failed to see any significant time this preseason (injury). The Rams NFC West opponents all bolster quality defensive lines, which could present major problems for OC Brian Schottenheimer, who I’m not a fan of to begin with. Starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson is out 4-6 weeks with an MCL sprain, leaving the secondary scrambling for a quality replacement. Outside of the defensive line, it’s difficult to find talent on this roster. With one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, the Rams may be in a heap of trouble this year. In sports betting, we often hear the phrase; ‘Buy low, Sell high’. Not sure there is a better time to sell St. Louis than right now, Week 1 against a team wiseguys are high on this year in the Minnesota Vikings.

Indianapolis Colts (18/1):
A significant drop from 25/1, the Colts are hopeful that this is their year to challenge for the AFC Title. This move makes sense. Depending on where you shop, the Colts range from (-150 to -190) to win the AFC South and secure a playoff berth. Andrew Luck is primed for another quality season, and with an abundance of talent at the WR/TE position (Hilton, Wayne, Nicks, Allen, Fleener), this offense has Top 5 potential. Though Luck and the offense will likely receive the newspaper clippings, it’s the defense that may be the difference. GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano have worked on the defensive side, bringing in DE Arthur Jones, LB D’Qwell Jackson and S Mike Adams. The Colts also face the mediocre-at-best NFC East, playing the division’s best team (Eagles) at home on MNF. And let’s not forget, their home in the AFC South is likely the weakest division in all of football.

Written By: Richard Salvatori

2014 will mark the first season in collegiate football history that a four team playoff will decide the national champion. Conference alignment plays a major factor in the overall potential for various candidates to get into this ‘tournament’. There’s a ton to take in when analyzing futures for each team as to whether or not they can be one of the top four.

Scheduling is must be factored heavily, with projected point spreads and an analytical breakdown of each portion of a contender’s schedule being additionally imperative to understanding the likelihood that a team will have a chance to play for it all come January. We broke things down in consideration of conference affiliation and make an attempt to provide you with the best understanding possible regarding the prospects of all the major contenders.

ACC: Florida State (-250)

There’s a reason the ‘Noles are -250 to get to the playoff. The idea of this club going undefeated again is a wild card for sure, but the scheduling advantages are there even in an improved ACC. Clemson, Florida and Notre Dame all come at home, with Miami and Louisville on the road. A look ahead to their projected spreads show they will be nothing less than a double digit favorite in every game this season.

Because I’m leery about the selection committee and their willingness to appoint a one-loss ACC team into the four team playoff, I don’t think there’s much value in actually betting this listed future. You could essentially lay -110 and go over 11.5 wins if you felt they needed to run the table, but regardless, Florida State is a squad that should undoubtedly find themselves in the title picture. The ‘Noles are absolutely loaded from top to bottom, but if you wanted to knit-pick, Jimbo’s largest concern heading into the 2014-2015 campaign…their punting situation.

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Big 12: Baylor (+420)

Everyone and their mother loves this Sooners team and I will admit; they are as good as anyone in the trenches with fantastic offensive and defensive lines. They finished 2013 with a bang beating rival Okie State on the highway and they hammered Alabama in the stand-alone, nationally televised Sugar Bowl – they enter 2014-2015 with expectations as high as any other team. The Sooners get Kansas State, Baylor and OSU all at home. OU has the luxury of not having to leap the final hurdle that is a conference championship game. All of that has led to them receiving the fourth best odds to make it to this playoff.

The Big 12 is a tougher task than many give it credit for. Baylor jumped out to an impressive start and faltered late in 2013. This Sooner team is built better than that Bears club, but the fact remains that anything can happen in this conference. Texas will be vastly improved and trips to West Virginia and TCU are not going to be layups, either. Staying away from this conference altogether seems like the logical thing to do if you believe the Sooners are over-hyped in the minds of the media. Personally speaking, my gut tells me Baylor would be the Big 12 representative if any team from this conference represents the four team playoff, and at +420 rather than OU’s +190 it makes more sense from a value perspective.

SEC: Alabama (-115); Auburn (+240); Georgia (+300); LSU (+310)

Jacob Coker remains a bit of an unknown and some have questioned his ability to stay composed on and off the field, yet he is a seriously talented arm and has more skill position talent around him than Nick Saban has ever assembled in Tuscaloosa. That said, he’s had trouble beating out Blake Simms who Nick Saban wanted to turn into a running back this year.
Once again the offense will rely on the ground and pound it with their three strong RB talents, which should take a load off of Coker’s shoulders. Trips to Ole Miss and LSU could be stumbling blocks for the Tide, but they will be motivated and looking for revenge off that ridiculous loss to Auburn. They also get the Tigers’ at home in the final game of this 2014 slate, you can bet that one has been circled since the offseason.

Nick Marshall and this Auburn offense could be even better without Tre Mason. However, the defense is the looming question most war eagle faithful have, can they bend just enough to get back in the national title picture? I believe at some point that defense will break.

Georgia is finally healthy on both sides of the ball and they have a senior QB who figures to be better in big spots than Aaron Murray was. Hunter Matson impressed last year when given the opportunity and Murray’s injury a season ago might be a blessing in disguise. Having Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall out of the backfield to lean on early and often takes this Bulldogs team to the next level. In addition to having senior wide-outs Chris Conley and Michael Bennett to work with, UGA returns nine starters on defense and a wealth of talent on the OL. This team gets Clemson at home opening weekend and travels to South Carolina on September 13. A trip to Missouri won’t be easy and the Florida game in Jacksonville will likely decide the SEC East.

If LSU can beat the Tide in that all important, November 8th affair, they could be the team to come out of this conference. But that’s not all; Les Miles’ gang travels to Auburn and Florida back to back weeks in early October, it’s likely they split those.
Youth at the QB spot will be another concern, as Les Miles is still (allegedly) toying with the idea of using both sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris early on in different scripted packages. Harris is a kid with enormous potential and while accuracy and efficiency are concerning, he can make big plays at any moment. We believe he’ll be the guy Les rolls with, and that makes the Tigers very intriguing, especially with freshman Leonard Fournette looking to take over ground duties.

All in all, the Tide have appeal here. Coker could become a breakout star and even if ‘Bama trips up one time, if they win the SEC with just one loss, they’ll be in that final field of four.

Pac 12: Oregon (+125); USC (+550)

Oregon’s shortcomings have become an expectation to some extent. They continually trip up against Stanford, but do get the Cardinal at home this year and look to be front and center in what is a deep Pac-12. The Ducks get an early season visit from Michigan State in what could be one of the better games on the September slate. A trip to UCLA October 11th won’t be easy, and they also get Washington at home and Utah on the road. The schedule isn’t overly brutal and the Ducks will be favorites in all of their games thanks to Heisman frontrunner Marcus Mariota. The Ducks could be destined to get into this tournament after coming up short a season ago, but it’s the test that they could get in the conference title game that concerns me most.

USC is a team few in the media seem to be acknowledging, but professional bettors are high on the Trojans. Yes, an early season trek to Stanford will be tough and Arizona State has a tremendous offense as does rival UCLA. But the Bruins are largely overrated and Brett Hundley simply doesn’t have the accuracy to get them over the hump. Notre Dame comes at home, but that road trip to Arizona on October 11th comes in lieu of a revenge spot against the Sun Devils, making a potential landmine as the Wildcats could be underrated. Still, they can probably lose one game, so long as they beat the Bruins, and go to the conference championship.

Yes, the Ducks are probably better on paper right now, but the Trojans are a serious challenger with an absurd amount of skill. Injuries and depth are the main challenge for USC and the loss of Josh Shaw doesn’t help, and now Anthony Brown has quit after calling Steve Sarkisian a racist.

Big Ten: Michigan State (+375); Wisconsin (+550); Ohio State (+600)

The Spartans are clearly formidable and they come off a fantastic 2013 campaign. An early season trip to Oregon concerns us and they still have both Michigan and OSU after that. They lost some really important defensive players and a two loss season is likely.

The decision to go with Tanner McEvoy at QB in Madison is highly intriguing. A 6’6, 220 lbs senior, McEvoy used to attend South Carolina before going the JUCO route. He played DB one year ago at Wisconsin and now gets the nod over Joel Stave to start under center for the Badgers. The schedule presents opportunity for Wisky; they open with LSU, but outside of trips to Northwestern who I think is down and having internal issues and Iowa, the should is a cake walk. As was the Case with the Spartans, assuming they lose to LSU this weekend, they really don’t have any feasible way of getting in as a two loss club. For that reason, we will pass on them as well.

We know that Braxton Miller is out. We also know something else too: that might not really matter at all. J.T. Barrett can play and has been getting acclimated to the system for over 3 months as an early enrollee and the Buckeyes are loaded on both sides of the ball. They get Virginia Tech at home in week two and Michigan to end the year, but outside of a November 8th trip to East Lansing, this schedule is beyond manageable. How much better is Braxton Miller than JT Barrett? Week 1 features the Buckeyes at Navy where they were 17-point favorites before the loss of Miller. Since then, bookmakers re-opened the contest -12.5 and professional bettors proceeded to bury the game as Ohio State is -16.5 with J.T Barrett calling the shots now.

If (and it’s obviously a big if) Barrett proves to be as composed in the pocket at this level as many say he is, the Buckeyes aren’t likely to see a drop-off in Urban Meyers athlete-friendly quarterback system. This is our riskiest pick and Georgia could be viewed as a more logical selection as they sit in the SEC East, but the boys from Columbus intrigue us and the number next to their name is a steal at the current price. This is the perfect example of taking advantage of overreaction in the marketplace.

Final Predictions: Florida State, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State

Value Bets: Ohio State, Baylor, Georgia, USC

Written By: Billy Attridge


* LVH Opening Total: 8 (O-120, U+100)

* BetOnline Current Total: 8.5 (U-170)

* BetOnline AFC West Odds: (+650)

The NFL Regular Season kicks off in less than a month, but for serious sports gamblers and investors alike, the preparation for this upcoming season likely began at least three months ago. The amount of data and information that is pertinent to having success as a sports bettor takes time to acquire. One team that jumps off the page as being overvalued based on last year’s results, and could be destined for a sub-par season, is the Kansas City Chiefs.


If we take a peak at a simple mathematical formula, the Pythagorean Theorem, we observe the Chiefs should have won approximately 9.57 games in 2013. They won 11 games, or 1.43 wins more than the basic statistics tell us they should have. Pythagorean Theorem accounts for turnover margin (KC +18), and allows for even those mathematically challenged individuals (it’s ok, we know you’re out there) to arrive at a solid base for handicapping a 16 game season.

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We can further examine my skepticism of Kansas City by evaluating the quarterbacks they faced last season. In 2013, the Chiefs defense forced 21 interceptions, 3rd most in the NFL. Impressive, but who was under center for the opposition? Blaine Gabbert, Michael Vick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrell Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, Jeff Teul, Matt McGloin and an injured RGIII. The Chiefs 17 interceptions against these quarterbacks (9 games) accounted for almost 81% of their picks for the entire season! This year, they have been “blessed” with the NFC West (Kaepernick, Wilson, Palmer and Bradford), and those physical defenses. A late season visit to Pittsburgh puts a definitive stamp on a much more difficult road for Kansas City in 2014. The AFC West division has strengthened as a whole in the off-season, and a game they must win to even sniff their season win total is Week 1; Kansas City is currently installed a 4.5-point favorite at home over the Titans. However, they will be without the services of their best wide-out, Dwayne Bowe due to a 1-game suspension.

The current Chiefs over/under number sits at 8.5, with the under heavily juiced (-165 to -195 depending where you shop). While I realize this is not the optimal market entry point, I would recommend playing this at the current number for a little less than an average wager. Some sportsbooks offer alternative betting lines; one may offer 9(-225) or 8(+100). Gamblers can often take advantage of these lines with a little work and some shopping around (please do not limit yourself to 1 or 2 books). Fundamental exercises such as line shopping and self-control are crucial to long-term success in the sports betting marketplace – and should be practiced daily!