Written By: Richard Salvatori
Coming into the 2013-2014 NCAA basketball campaign lots of hype surrounded a massive crop of freshman phenoms. Analysts drooled at the opportunity to talk Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, and Andrew Wiggins any second they could.
Teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Florida, and Duke have come on the scene this year (and in recent seasons) as contenders thanks to elite recruiting classes. Such classes typically center around size and interior power. Just look at Kentucky’s freshman crop this season, it includes 6’9 Julius Randle, seven-footer Dakari Johnson, and a pair of 6’6 guards in the Harrison twins – size feels like everything in the sport of basketball. The last two National Champions have been predicated on inside dominance, and it’s no wonder that coaches from top programs seek size and physicality in recruiting.
In no way should we disregarding the possibility that the largest basketball programs in America could easily find their way to Dallas this year, there’s lots to be said about the importance of guard play and, specifically, on the perimeter. Most fans tend to believe great defense is about shot blockers and rim protectors sending bunnies from penetrating guards into section 107, row 13, but this isn’t about making Sports Center‘s Top 10.
Several teams feature outstanding perimeter defenders, most notably the Ohio State Buckeyes. Thad Matta’s club was undefeated prior to back-to-back conference loses at Michigan State in overtime, and Iowa in Columbus. Despite stubbing their toe, Ohio State’s power rated 4th according to Kenny White’s college basketball power poll.
Aaron Craft leads Ohio State and is the consummate point guard, perhaps the best on-ball defender we’ve seen in years. Craft’s a true student of the game and his style has rubbed off on those around him in Columbus. Shannon Scott has become an elite defender paired with Lenzelle Smith and freshman, Marc Loving, making Ohio State a nightmare for opponents on the outside. The Buckeyes are ranked #1 in defensive efficiency.
Preseason odds featured the Ohio State Buckeyes 30-1 to win it all at BetOnline.ag – number has since dropped to 20-1 and was as low as 12-1 last week.
Another group which saw a similar change in its rankings is the team Craft and Co. knocked out of the big dance a season ago: Arizona. The Wildcats have more interior size than OSU, so we’re not saying they have the same defensive skill on the perimeter. Still, this Arizona team has a combination of length and quickness not easily duplicated.
Nick Johnson and transfer T.J. McConnell are fundamental defenders that communicate well with their bigs. Gabe York and Jordin Mayes are serviceable off the pine and freshman sensation Aaron Gordon is capable of defending every position on the floor. The Wildcats are 12th in defending the three (opponents shooting 28%), and 8th (41%) when it comes to two-point-land. Their gritty road win over a talented Michigan team was testimony to what they are capable of. Trailing the entire game, they locked up late and forced Michigan into difficult shots down the stretch.
Gordon’s presence alongside Brandon Ashley provides Arizona so much flexibility. McConnell, Johnson and company are comfortable switching in virtually any matchup. Drexel, Duke and Michigan all had early success scoring, but when Arizona is focused like they were in each second half of the aforementioned games, they’re a tough nut to crack.
Another team silently threatening to enter elite status is Villanova. Jay Wright has experienced a program resurgence that’s been largely predicated on excellent defense. The Wildcats are not great statistically defending the three ball, but those numbers are distorted due to Syracuse shooting 54% from deep, including; 7 for 11 combined from Cooney and Fair.
Bell, Hilliard and Wright’s other options are committed to the defensive end. Villanova has placed the utmost importance in locking down outside and negating ball penetration at every opportunity, evident by their 11th ranked two-point defense. That, in turn, has led to a more transition-oriented and free flowing offense ranked towards the top of National rankings.
Conference play and March Madness has been special the past years because the gap is closing – games are tight and parity has reared its head. When games become tight, guard play is magnified. Each possession becomes critical and coaches choose to put the ball in the hands of their most efficient players.
Getting to Final Fours and winning comes down to balance, that can’t be understated. While guards can win games late, opposing guards can protect leads late. Teams like Ohio State, Arizona, Villanova, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma State are viable threats to go deep in the postseason thanks to what they bring defensively along the perimeter. Only time will tell if these groups make good on their hopes for late season success, but there’s one group I like the future prospects of moving forward.
NCAA Basketball Futures Bet: Oklahoma State Cowboys 12-1