Archives November 2014

With the end of season playoffs in sight, all the teams still in contention to qualify will have one eye on the Super Bowl final, taking place on February 1st in Arizona. One team who will be chomping at the bit to get there is the Denver Broncos, especially after last season’s humiliation in the final to Seattle Seahawks. The strengthening of their squad over the summer can only benefit the Broncos chances, with the likes of DeMarcus Ware at defensive end, Aqib Talib at corner, and T.J.Ward coming in at safety. Denver has a great shot at lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy come the end of the season at betting odds of 5/1. But what other teams could be in the mix to be crowned champions?

Signing the league’s best cornerback in Darrelle Revis, as well as keeping hold of receiver Julian Edelman puts the New England Patriots in a strong position to challenge for this seasons Superbowl. The Patriots are red-hot and atop the AFC East with a record of 9-2, having won their last 7 by an average margin of 20 points per game, which has sports books slashing their odds down to 4/1. Other teams with a shot are NFC North leaders Green Bay Packers (5/1), San Francisco 49’ers (18/1), last season’s champions Seattle Seahawks (11/1) and the Arizona Cardinals (14/1). With a few league games remaining, all playoff positions are up for grabs, so why not try your hand on an American football themed slots games in the meantime.

This is easier than it has ever been, as you don’t even need a computer now if you want to play NFL slot $5 Million Touchdown – you can just access it from your phone using a mobile casino. It’s certainly worth it, not least because this particular game has an eye-popping $5 million maximum jackpot. It also has the Touchdown game, which simulates NFL action using state of the art video graphics that makes it a dream for any fan who is also frustrated player – one of the bonuses of this type of betting on sports. With these kinds of features offered it isn’t hard to figure out why sports fans are turning to sporting slot games as a fun and rewarding alternative form of betting on their favorite sport.

Written By: Billy Attridge

With NFL Week 11 wrapping up, what better way to review the season thus far than by checking in with the prestigious Westgate SuperContest. Through 55 games (5 picks per week), CH BALLERS leads the pack with 42 points, picking winners at a 76.36% clip. Using basic statistical principles that Justin Zovas highlighted for readers in his pre-competition piece on the SuperContest for Todd’s Take, we can further evaluate the positions of the leaders, and consider the probability of someone eclipsing the projected 57.5 wins this year.

Using the premise that each pick has a 50% chance of winning, we can calculate the likelihood of our results up to Week 11:

5 Picks per week = 55 made thus far

0.50 probability of winning pick = 27.5 is our average, with a standard deviation of 3.708

MATH SAYS…

68% should fall between 23.792 and 31.208 wins. Reality: 67.93%, or 953 entrants.

95% should fall between 20.084 and 34.916 wins. Reality: 92.23%, or 1,294 entrants.

99.7% should fall between 16.376 and 38.624 wins. Reality: 99.00%, or 1,389 entrants.

So what does this mean? While normally we would expect about 4 contestants to be outside of our 3rd Standard deviation, we have 14! (Only 3 of which reside north of 38 wins).

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MOVING FORWARD:

While 76%+ winners is quite the feat, it cannot be expected to continue. In fact, in order for CH BALLERS to reach the 60 win mark; 60% of their picks moving forward would need to be correct. Good thing 3/5 per week is easy! (Hoping this reeks of sarcasm).

6 weeks = 30 games x 0.6 = 18 +42 = 60 wins

Now let’s dig a little deeper. Using 36 wins as our cutoff point (Top 40 contestants), what is the likelihood that someone will top the projection of 57.5 wins from the beginning of the year?

Administering the same concepts/math from above (replacing 50 picks with 30), and using 36 wins as the low, pertaining to the current Top 40 participants:

68% will likely have between 48.26 and 53.74 wins.

95% will likely have between 45.52 and 56.48 wins.

99.7% will likely have between 42.78 and 59.22 wins.

Keep in mind, that is using 36 current wins as our base (27 entries are at 37 wins or higher).

Top 40 Projections (If participants current win percentages play out):



Top 40 Projections (If participants regress to break-even rate, 52.4%):

The Packers’ week off seemed to have seriously helped the hamstring injury that Aaron Rodgers suffered, since the very famous QB worked out on Monday, which is great news for many fans and their bookmaking solutions.

This proved to be the very first time that the player was able to participate on the field since October 26, when he suffered a pulled left hamstring in the Packer’s 44-23 defeat to the Saints.

“Aaron did everything today,” said coach Mike McCarthy. “He looked good. He went through the workout today.”

However, the workout session was not a complete practice, as the coach compared it to a workout during the offseason in which individual drills are done, as well as working on conditioning and strength.

The player stayed in the game with New Orleans despite the injury suffered in the third quarter, but he did not have a lot of mobility at all. Rodgers then pulled out of the game late during the fourth quarter, as it was too much to handle.

On Monday, Rodgers didn’t talk to reporters, but after his team’s game against the New Orleans he said that he didn’t believe that the injury was so serious, something that left many Packers fans very relieved.

The coach said that RG T.J. Lang, who concerned many fans when he suffered a sprained left ankle in the game against New Orleans, was rehabbing his injury on Monday. But the team’s three starters at defense – safety Morgan Burnett (calf), DE Datone Jones (ankle), and CB Sam Shields (knee) – all players who ended missing missed the game against the Saints – were able to practice throughout the team’s workout session on Monday.

Rodgers might return to action sooner than expected, and this is seen as great news for many fans looking for bookmaking solutions. It’s still not known if the player will be healthy enough to take on Bears, but there is no doubt amongst many fans that his return will give the Packers a huge boost for their upcoming NFL games.

Fans and experts alike are knocking on wood, hoping to see the player hit the field soon enough, but they’re fully aware that he should still be very careful when he makes his return, and should be sure that he made a complete recovery before playing again.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Sports bettors are constantly searching for relevant information that can aid them in their quest to profit in the evolving NFL sports market. Taking a step back to observe which teams have fattened pockets, and which have been costly, is an important strategy when investing in the NFL market. Always remember, no matter how good or poor a team might be, the point spread is the great equalizer. The Oakland Raiders might be 0-8, but they are 4-4 against the spread, while the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks are just 3-5 against the spread.


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Most Profitable ATS:
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
Arizona Cardinals: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Least Profitable ATS:
New York Jets: 1-7-1
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-6-1
Tennessee Titans: 2-5-1
Washington Redskins: 3-6

Most Profitable Over Teams:
Green Bay Packers: 7-1
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
New England Patriots: 7-2
Denver Broncos 6-2
New Orleans Saints: 6-2

Most Profitable Under Teams:
Buffalo Bills: 6-2
Detroit Lions: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Probably the most important seasonal trend pertaining to bettors and sports books alike, is the run of primetime overs leading up to this point. Hitting at a 22-6 clip (79%), the “Primetime Over” spot is usually reserved for recreational gamblers looking to play catch-up, or double up, at the end of a day. “Primetime Games” are considered Thursday Night 7-2 to the Over, Sunday Night 8-1 to the Over, and Monday Night 7-3 to the Over. Some professional bettors make a habit of attacking the opening total, betting over, with the knowledge that come game-time, middle opportunities and easy buy-offs will be available. It is very rare that any teams ATS, or Over/Under results, stay running at a clip like this for an entire season. Bookmakers have to adjust; therefore, often creating value on the opposite side(s). Many treat betting as a hobby, but don’t forget, it is a market, and any efficient market will have corrections.

A Team to Consider Backing in the Second Half:
New York Jets: I cringed as soon as I finished typing ‘Jets’. But let’s take a deeper look. Sitting at the bottom of the barrel in turnover margin (-13), it is no surprise that the Jets have posted the worst ATS record of any team so far. However, a change at QB to the veteran Vick may spark some fight in this locker room. Head Coach Rex Ryan is most likely dead in the water, but he is a player’s coach, and my feeling is that the team will respond with strong efforts in the second half of the season. This is a team that gets fantastic trench play on both sides of the ball; Top 5 in yards per carry (4.7), and Top 5 in yards allowed per carry (3.5). My only concern; Vick is a turnover-prone quarterback, and ball-security is a must to covering spreads. His size has always been an issue in the redzone, and some of the tread on his wheels have worn. This week, New York has dropped from +5.5 to +4 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers at BetOnline.

A Team to Consider Fading in the Second Half:
Houston Texans: J.J. Watt and the Texans sit at 4-5 (5-5 ATS), and seem to be in the hunt for the AFC South crown. The Texans are fortunate to be in the mix of things, considering Watt has accounted for 3 touchdowns, and they carry a +7 turnover margin heading into the second half of the year. To be frank, this team doesn’t have much on either side of the ball. Quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick will lose you more games than he will win, and outside of Watt, this defense has failed to slow down above average offenses. Houston faces a stiff test out of their bye week at the Browns (another team that was a strong candidate to land the fade spot). Obviously, as sports investors everything depends on the number. With the upcoming slate of games (Cleveland, Jacksonville 2x, Tennessee), there may be value betting against the Texans as favorites in certain spots.