Written By: Billy Attridge
With NFL Week 11 wrapping up, what better way to review the season thus far than by checking in with the prestigious Westgate SuperContest. Through 55 games (5 picks per week), CH BALLERS leads the pack with 42 points, picking winners at a 76.36% clip. Using basic statistical principles that Justin Zovas highlighted for readers in his pre-competition piece on the SuperContest for Todd’s Take, we can further evaluate the positions of the leaders, and consider the probability of someone eclipsing the projected 57.5 wins this year.
Using the premise that each pick has a 50% chance of winning, we can calculate the likelihood of our results up to Week 11:
5 Picks per week = 55 made thus far
0.50 probability of winning pick = 27.5 is our average, with a standard deviation of 3.708
MATH SAYS…
68% should fall between 23.792 and 31.208 wins. Reality: 67.93%, or 953 entrants.
95% should fall between 20.084 and 34.916 wins. Reality: 92.23%, or 1,294 entrants.
99.7% should fall between 16.376 and 38.624 wins. Reality: 99.00%, or 1,389 entrants.
So what does this mean? While normally we would expect about 4 contestants to be outside of our 3rd Standard deviation, we have 14! (Only 3 of which reside north of 38 wins).
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MOVING FORWARD:
While 76%+ winners is quite the feat, it cannot be expected to continue. In fact, in order for CH BALLERS to reach the 60 win mark; 60% of their picks moving forward would need to be correct. Good thing 3/5 per week is easy! (Hoping this reeks of sarcasm).
6 weeks = 30 games x 0.6 = 18 +42 = 60 wins
Now let’s dig a little deeper. Using 36 wins as our cutoff point (Top 40 contestants), what is the likelihood that someone will top the projection of 57.5 wins from the beginning of the year?
Administering the same concepts/math from above (replacing 50 picks with 30), and using 36 wins as the low, pertaining to the current Top 40 participants:
68% will likely have between 48.26 and 53.74 wins.
95% will likely have between 45.52 and 56.48 wins.
99.7% will likely have between 42.78 and 59.22 wins.
Keep in mind, that is using 36 current wins as our base (27 entries are at 37 wins or higher).
Top 40 Projections (If participants current win percentages play out):
Top 40 Projections (If participants regress to break-even rate, 52.4%):
