All posts by Payne Insider

Written By: Billy Attridge

On September 10th, sports fans and sports investors alike are blessed with NFL Regular Season football. While many sharp investors enter the Win Total market early, maneuvering around and grabbing key numbers, there are certain NFL teams that require patience, whose optimal market entry point is later rather than sooner. This year, the Seattle Seahawks fit that bill.

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Written By: Vegas Matty

The 2015 SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook expects to be even bigger than last year, when a record 1,403 entries made it worth more than $2 million to those entrants who finished among the Top 30 places and were paid out following the 17-week NFL season. At $1,500 per entry, the SuperContest has been known since its inception as the best NFL handicapping contest in the world, with last year’s winner taking home a record $740,000 for picking winners at an insane 76 percent clip.

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Written By: Billy Attridge

As the push to legalize sports betting continues, it seems fitting to have a brief refresher on the fundamentals of investing in the sports betting marketplace. To start, betting on sports requires a discipline that many fail to recognize, or care to practice each and every single day in order to attain profitability. Understanding the risk involved with gambling and the work necessary to be successful is a decent head start to game planning your way to cashing (more) tickets in 2015 and beyond. One of the most crucial elements to wagering that involves both discipline and hard work is line shopping.

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Written By: Billy Attridge

Reason 1: Options, Options, Options

Live Wagering provides bettors with a plethora of choices in the sports betting market. Buying off a side, locking in a middle, and getting down at a more advantageous number than offered at close are all opportunities that professional bettors look to capitalize on.

One game in particular provides an excellent example. During Week 12 of the NFL season, the Packers/Vikings game provided savvy in-game investors a chance to strike on an overreaction by sportsbooks. Minnesota opened as a 10-point home underdog to the visiting Green Bay Packers. Sharp gamblers gobbled up the double digits, and the Vikings closed +7.5/+8 at most books. Mid-way through the 2nd quarter, the Packers took a 14-7 lead after an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass. If you missed taking +10 pregame, a significant number in NFL betting, the in-game wagering line jumped to +10.5, offering a superior line than the best sports betting groups in the world got down on. Those who took the plunge on the Vikings not only grabbed an incredible line, but recognized profit as well (Green Bay won, 24-21).

Reason 2: Swings

This is especially prevalent in basketball, both NBA and College. We have all seen it before. Poor 3-point shooting teams rattle off 4 or 5 in a row, creating a massive swing in the line. Certain lineups seem to “click”, or speed up the tempo of the game when on the court. Recognizing coaching tendencies, game theory, and situations can guide one to dominating the live wagering market. The concept of buying low/selling high is highly effective for in-game bettors, and, if combined with correct game analysis, can be extremely profitable.

Reason 3: Limits

Many large sports bettors and syndicate groups do not bother with live wagering. Why? Simply put, the limits do not make it worthwhile. Most sportsbooks offer just a few hundred dollars, and if they do increase limits larger, the standard juice rises significantly. Even worse, it’s common practice to put live betting delays, and then re-adjust the line during the delay. Why is this relevant, or considered a positive? Most sports bettors do not have a limit problem. Books put limits on smaller market offerings such as props, college basketball totals, CFL, and the WNBA. It is much tougher to set lines for these subsets of wagers, and in-game betting fits right in. Play by play offerings in Pro Football cannot come close to the accuracy of a Sunday 12:30 pm NFL Line.

If limits are not a concern, live wagering can be a profitable endeavor for those with the discipline to tackle it. Money management principals need to be in full effect here (as they always should), as many options and games on the board can lead to a full slate of +EV (expected value) opportunities.

With the end of season playoffs in sight, all the teams still in contention to qualify will have one eye on the Super Bowl final, taking place on February 1st in Arizona. One team who will be chomping at the bit to get there is the Denver Broncos, especially after last season’s humiliation in the final to Seattle Seahawks. The strengthening of their squad over the summer can only benefit the Broncos chances, with the likes of DeMarcus Ware at defensive end, Aqib Talib at corner, and T.J.Ward coming in at safety. Denver has a great shot at lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy come the end of the season at betting odds of 5/1. But what other teams could be in the mix to be crowned champions?

Signing the league’s best cornerback in Darrelle Revis, as well as keeping hold of receiver Julian Edelman puts the New England Patriots in a strong position to challenge for this seasons Superbowl. The Patriots are red-hot and atop the AFC East with a record of 9-2, having won their last 7 by an average margin of 20 points per game, which has sports books slashing their odds down to 4/1. Other teams with a shot are NFC North leaders Green Bay Packers (5/1), San Francisco 49’ers (18/1), last season’s champions Seattle Seahawks (11/1) and the Arizona Cardinals (14/1). With a few league games remaining, all playoff positions are up for grabs, so why not try your hand on an American football themed slots games in the meantime.

This is easier than it has ever been, as you don’t even need a computer now if you want to play NFL slot $5 Million Touchdown – you can just access it from your phone using a mobile casino. It’s certainly worth it, not least because this particular game has an eye-popping $5 million maximum jackpot. It also has the Touchdown game, which simulates NFL action using state of the art video graphics that makes it a dream for any fan who is also frustrated player – one of the bonuses of this type of betting on sports. With these kinds of features offered it isn’t hard to figure out why sports fans are turning to sporting slot games as a fun and rewarding alternative form of betting on their favorite sport.

Written By: Billy Attridge

With NFL Week 11 wrapping up, what better way to review the season thus far than by checking in with the prestigious Westgate SuperContest. Through 55 games (5 picks per week), CH BALLERS leads the pack with 42 points, picking winners at a 76.36% clip. Using basic statistical principles that Justin Zovas highlighted for readers in his pre-competition piece on the SuperContest for Todd’s Take, we can further evaluate the positions of the leaders, and consider the probability of someone eclipsing the projected 57.5 wins this year.

Using the premise that each pick has a 50% chance of winning, we can calculate the likelihood of our results up to Week 11:

5 Picks per week = 55 made thus far

0.50 probability of winning pick = 27.5 is our average, with a standard deviation of 3.708

MATH SAYS…

68% should fall between 23.792 and 31.208 wins. Reality: 67.93%, or 953 entrants.

95% should fall between 20.084 and 34.916 wins. Reality: 92.23%, or 1,294 entrants.

99.7% should fall between 16.376 and 38.624 wins. Reality: 99.00%, or 1,389 entrants.

So what does this mean? While normally we would expect about 4 contestants to be outside of our 3rd Standard deviation, we have 14! (Only 3 of which reside north of 38 wins).

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MOVING FORWARD:

While 76%+ winners is quite the feat, it cannot be expected to continue. In fact, in order for CH BALLERS to reach the 60 win mark; 60% of their picks moving forward would need to be correct. Good thing 3/5 per week is easy! (Hoping this reeks of sarcasm).

6 weeks = 30 games x 0.6 = 18 +42 = 60 wins

Now let’s dig a little deeper. Using 36 wins as our cutoff point (Top 40 contestants), what is the likelihood that someone will top the projection of 57.5 wins from the beginning of the year?

Administering the same concepts/math from above (replacing 50 picks with 30), and using 36 wins as the low, pertaining to the current Top 40 participants:

68% will likely have between 48.26 and 53.74 wins.

95% will likely have between 45.52 and 56.48 wins.

99.7% will likely have between 42.78 and 59.22 wins.

Keep in mind, that is using 36 current wins as our base (27 entries are at 37 wins or higher).

Top 40 Projections (If participants current win percentages play out):



Top 40 Projections (If participants regress to break-even rate, 52.4%):

The Packers’ week off seemed to have seriously helped the hamstring injury that Aaron Rodgers suffered, since the very famous QB worked out on Monday, which is great news for many fans and their bookmaking solutions.

This proved to be the very first time that the player was able to participate on the field since October 26, when he suffered a pulled left hamstring in the Packer’s 44-23 defeat to the Saints.

“Aaron did everything today,” said coach Mike McCarthy. “He looked good. He went through the workout today.”

However, the workout session was not a complete practice, as the coach compared it to a workout during the offseason in which individual drills are done, as well as working on conditioning and strength.

The player stayed in the game with New Orleans despite the injury suffered in the third quarter, but he did not have a lot of mobility at all. Rodgers then pulled out of the game late during the fourth quarter, as it was too much to handle.

On Monday, Rodgers didn’t talk to reporters, but after his team’s game against the New Orleans he said that he didn’t believe that the injury was so serious, something that left many Packers fans very relieved.

The coach said that RG T.J. Lang, who concerned many fans when he suffered a sprained left ankle in the game against New Orleans, was rehabbing his injury on Monday. But the team’s three starters at defense – safety Morgan Burnett (calf), DE Datone Jones (ankle), and CB Sam Shields (knee) – all players who ended missing missed the game against the Saints – were able to practice throughout the team’s workout session on Monday.

Rodgers might return to action sooner than expected, and this is seen as great news for many fans looking for bookmaking solutions. It’s still not known if the player will be healthy enough to take on Bears, but there is no doubt amongst many fans that his return will give the Packers a huge boost for their upcoming NFL games.

Fans and experts alike are knocking on wood, hoping to see the player hit the field soon enough, but they’re fully aware that he should still be very careful when he makes his return, and should be sure that he made a complete recovery before playing again.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Sports bettors are constantly searching for relevant information that can aid them in their quest to profit in the evolving NFL sports market. Taking a step back to observe which teams have fattened pockets, and which have been costly, is an important strategy when investing in the NFL market. Always remember, no matter how good or poor a team might be, the point spread is the great equalizer. The Oakland Raiders might be 0-8, but they are 4-4 against the spread, while the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks are just 3-5 against the spread.


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Most Profitable ATS:
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
Arizona Cardinals: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Least Profitable ATS:
New York Jets: 1-7-1
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-6-1
Tennessee Titans: 2-5-1
Washington Redskins: 3-6

Most Profitable Over Teams:
Green Bay Packers: 7-1
Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
New England Patriots: 7-2
Denver Broncos 6-2
New Orleans Saints: 6-2

Most Profitable Under Teams:
Buffalo Bills: 6-2
Detroit Lions: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2

Probably the most important seasonal trend pertaining to bettors and sports books alike, is the run of primetime overs leading up to this point. Hitting at a 22-6 clip (79%), the “Primetime Over” spot is usually reserved for recreational gamblers looking to play catch-up, or double up, at the end of a day. “Primetime Games” are considered Thursday Night 7-2 to the Over, Sunday Night 8-1 to the Over, and Monday Night 7-3 to the Over. Some professional bettors make a habit of attacking the opening total, betting over, with the knowledge that come game-time, middle opportunities and easy buy-offs will be available. It is very rare that any teams ATS, or Over/Under results, stay running at a clip like this for an entire season. Bookmakers have to adjust; therefore, often creating value on the opposite side(s). Many treat betting as a hobby, but don’t forget, it is a market, and any efficient market will have corrections.

A Team to Consider Backing in the Second Half:
New York Jets: I cringed as soon as I finished typing ‘Jets’. But let’s take a deeper look. Sitting at the bottom of the barrel in turnover margin (-13), it is no surprise that the Jets have posted the worst ATS record of any team so far. However, a change at QB to the veteran Vick may spark some fight in this locker room. Head Coach Rex Ryan is most likely dead in the water, but he is a player’s coach, and my feeling is that the team will respond with strong efforts in the second half of the season. This is a team that gets fantastic trench play on both sides of the ball; Top 5 in yards per carry (4.7), and Top 5 in yards allowed per carry (3.5). My only concern; Vick is a turnover-prone quarterback, and ball-security is a must to covering spreads. His size has always been an issue in the redzone, and some of the tread on his wheels have worn. This week, New York has dropped from +5.5 to +4 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers at BetOnline.

A Team to Consider Fading in the Second Half:
Houston Texans: J.J. Watt and the Texans sit at 4-5 (5-5 ATS), and seem to be in the hunt for the AFC South crown. The Texans are fortunate to be in the mix of things, considering Watt has accounted for 3 touchdowns, and they carry a +7 turnover margin heading into the second half of the year. To be frank, this team doesn’t have much on either side of the ball. Quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick will lose you more games than he will win, and outside of Watt, this defense has failed to slow down above average offenses. Houston faces a stiff test out of their bye week at the Browns (another team that was a strong candidate to land the fade spot). Obviously, as sports investors everything depends on the number. With the upcoming slate of games (Cleveland, Jacksonville 2x, Tennessee), there may be value betting against the Texans as favorites in certain spots.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Buffalo (4-3) at New York (1-6)

Current Line: Jets -3, 40

Analysis: This line opened Jets -2.5 (-120), and quickly jumped to NYJ -3, with professionals buying the Jets up to the most important number in the NFL. The total has been bet down off a key total number of 41, which seems to be a reasonable spot for the Bills and Jets; two teams whom excel on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 4th and 7th in opponents yards per play, and struggle offensively, ranking 25th and 31st, respectively. The Bills are coming off an emotional high, winning in the final seconds at home vs. the Vikings. Although they grabbed the victory, they lost the services of RB’s Jackson and Spiller. While the running back position is not of high value in today’s NFL, the loss of a leader like Jackson stings. Buffalo’s porous offensive line facing arguably the best front 4 football spells a long day for Kyle Orton and company. The Jets have added rest time, and despite the poor record, should be ready to go for this one.

Final Thoughts: For me, this betting line acknowledges the changes in the NFL Betting Market. We have a 4-3 Bills team who has beaten a public team (Chicago), a strong up and coming team (Miami), and a division leader (Detroit), catching 3 points from a 1-6 team whose QB and coach are routinely mocked in the mainstream media. If you can find a stray 2.5 (-120) or better, investing in the Jets looks to be the way to go.

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Baltimore (5-2) at Cincinnati (3-2-1)

Current Line: Bengals PK, 45.5

Analysis: The Ravens opened up +2.5, and have been bet down to +1/PK at some offshore sports books. This game is huge in terms of division and playoff implications, especially for the Bengals. Going 0-3-1 after their bye week could cripple this team, and will definitely make them an underdog to make the playoffs. While the Ravens seem to roll at home, the road struggles that follow Joe Flacco and this crew cannot be over-looked. That being said, the Ravens should be focused, looking for revenge after their Week 1 home loss on their minds.

Final Thoughts: While I have Baltimore power rated a bit higher than Cincinnati, this spot and number does not feel right. I think we’ll see a decent effort from the Bengals, with or without A.J. Green. The look-ahead line on this match-up was Cincinnati-3.5, and any value for the Ravens was lost after Week 7’s results. This line needs some monitoring, and if it continues it’s downward trend (70% of tickets on Baltimore), it may require taking a position on the home team.

Green Bay (5-2) at New Orleans (2-4)

Current Line: Saints -1, 56

Analysis: Two teams moving in two directions, it seems. Packers have won four straight, scoring almost 37 points per game in that stretch, with an average winning margin of almost 19 points per game. Rodgers has been a torch this season, throwing for 18 TD’s and only 1 INT through 7 games. The Saints, on the other hand, fell apart in Week 7, blowing a 24-10 lead with under four minutes to go. The key to this game is the time. Yes, oddsmakers and bettors alike have recognized the drastic home/road dichotomy the Saints have carried with them the past half-decade. However, Sunday night provides the first home prime-time spot for New Orleans this year. This appears to be a must win for the Saints, who, despite the poor play, are only 1 game back in the seemingly dreadful NFC South with two games remaining versus the Panthers.

Final Thoughts: Like the Manning-led Broncos, home team and over in prime-time spots just seems to click when it comes to New Orleans. At 56, I cannot justify market entry on the over at this time. The Saints normal home-field advantage may fall between 3.5-4.5, but in this prime-time spot vs. Rodgers and the Pack, I do not think it’s unreasonable to make this closer to its peak. Laying 1 or better with the Saints makes a ton of sense.

Written By: Billy Attridge

Betting the NFL is unlike betting any other sport. The amount of public money that saturates the market on a weekly basis allows professional bettors the opportunity to capitalize on line adjustments based purely on public action. For every investor claiming the NFL betting market is too tight, professional bettors understand it’s the market with the least efficient money in conjunction with the opportunity to invest larger sums than any other american sport market. The public has a tendency to overreact; teams are constantly being evaluated based on what they accomplished (or did not) the previous week, and bet accordingly.

It is widely known that 3 and 7 are the most important key numbers in NFL wagering; by adding the two aforementioned win margins together it works out that 3 and 7 point victories account for 19.2% of all NFL games. So entering the market at optimal times is crucial when games are aligned around these key numbers. As it pertains to Giants at Redskins on Thursday Night Football, New York backers should have grabbed +4.5 or better, while Washington supporters interested in laying the wood could have laid as low as -3.

Monitoring line moves around 3 and 7 can be very indicative of how professional bettors and the NFL betting market sees a game. In Week 1, we saw the Minnesota Vikings open as a 6-point underdog, only to be bet through the 3, and close 2.5 at a number of the sharpest sports books. At this point, the market is screaming that the number may not matter in this contest (it didn’t, as the Vikings steamrolled the Rams 34-6). Moving through the 3 is an extremely strong move, especially on game-day, when betting limits are at their very highest. A move from +3.5 to +2.5 (1 point move) carries more weight in terms of strength than a move from -10.5 to -13.5 (3 point move). It’s imperative to have a broad understanding of the NFL betting market, and how it works. Factoring in key numbers, the time of week betting limits increase and then reach their peak, as well as, betting percentages are a collection of tools all bettors should incorporate in their NFL handicapping.

Which games in Week 4 should you keep an eye on? The Vikings, Bills and Chiefs all opened at or above the largest key number in the NFL and are trending downwards or below the 3. Money has driven Minnesota from +3 (+100) to +2.5 (+102), the Bills from +4 (-110) to +3 (-110), and the Chiefs from +4.5 (-110) to as low as +3 (+110), as of Wednesday afternoon. As these games dance around the 3, it is imperative to watch for further market moves in that direction, or potential resistance. Using a Live Odds feed and monitoring NFL line movements at the sharpest offshore betting establishments is a beneficial weapon all bettors should add to their arsenal.